A few weeks ago, it appeared that the Dallas Cowboys were DOA going into their bye week after a brutal loss to the flailing Arizona Cardinals. Now, they’ve beaten both Super Bowl teams in four days and have a new life at 6-5-1.
The playoffs are still just out of reach, but they’ve stayed in the race with an outside chance of sneaking in. They find themselves in the same boat as the Detroit Lions, where the loser may see their odds evaporate.
Where the Lions Stand
Suddenly, postseason aspirations have begun to slip away from Detroit. An NFC superpower over the last two seasons, they suffered significant off-season losses of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and All-Pro center Frank Ragnow, losses they haven’t recovered from. Ragnow teased a return, but it amounted to little more than false hope after he failed his physical.
Now, the Lions sit at 7-5 and just outside of a playoff spot, and the Cowboys are just behind them, only a half-game back. As we enter December, neither can afford a loss in such a tight conference race. This isn’t the same Detroit team of the past two years, but don’t underestimate a good team with its back against the wall.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is trending toward a game-time decision on Thursday, but it seems more likely he’ll miss the game with a more extended rest following Thursday’s game. Their young DB Terrion Arnold will also miss the game after landing on IR for a shoulder injury that’ll knock him out for the season. Without Ragnow’s return, the Lions are not getting healthier down the stretch as their season hangs in the balance.
Where the Cowboys Stand
Few teams boast the momentum that the Cowboys have gained in the previous weeks. Falling behind against the Eagles and Chiefs, Dallas mounted comebacks to upset both 2024 Super Bowl participants. Not only did it keep the Cowboys’ playoff hopes alive, but it kept the division within reach, now only down a game and a half to Philly with a split head-to-head tiebreaker.
Dallas has had better luck with injury, but will still be without starting LT Tyler Guyton, who injured his ankle against the Eagles. That doesn’t bode well for blocking the Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson, but the offense has been clicking otherwise without him.
The Cowboys Win If…
Their recent stretch of run defense isn’t a fluke. Since the bye week and Quinnen Williams trade, the Dallas run defense has gone from putrid to a strength. They stuffed Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley, and then kept Kareem Hunt in check following his AFC Offensive Player of the Week performance. QBs are running more against them now, but teams are becoming one-dimensional against this Cowboys defense.
The Lions offense is a different beast altogether. While Williams matches up well against the Detroit interior offensive line, the Lions feature an excellent RB duo and a willingness to pound the rock. I don’t trust Goff to play a clean game if they fall behind early and have to pass, but more so, I’ll take the Cowboys and their 87.2 offensive impact grade over the Lions at 82.4 if this becomes a shootout.
The Cowboys Lose If…
Their run defense is improved, but not strong enough to keep the Lions’ ground attack at bay. Odds are that without St. Brown or their TE Sam LaPorta, they’ll do all they can to run it through the Dallas defense to control both the ball and the clock. Putting their LBs in a bind, Goff would still be able to operate even with lesser weapons in that situation.
The Lions’ defense has been good, but it shouldn’t be good enough to hold down the Cowboys’ passing attack. It would take an off day from Dak and a powerful rushing game to thwart Dallas’s momentum.
Prediction
Cowboys 30-21
Don’t count out Dan Campbell’s Lions just yet, but their luck hasn’t been kind while the Cowboys have found a second life. If Dallas can jump out to an early lead and force the Lions to pass, Goff has been just turnover-prone enough to throw themselves out of the game.
