The Buffalo Bills are coming off a much-needed win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. But the passing game continues to sputter. Dalton Kincaid has been out since suffering a hamstring injury four weeks ago during the road loss to the Miami Dolphins. Will fantasy football managers see their top-10 tight end return to the lineup this week?
Dalton Kincaid Injury Update
Kincaid’s hamstring problem occurred during the third quarter of Buffalo’s Week 10 road defeat to Miami when he visibly grabbed at his hamstring while exiting the field. The injury immediately raised concerns given the notoriously tricky nature of hamstring strains and their tendency to linger.​
ESPN’s Jordan Schultz labeled him week to week on the Monday following the injury, tweeting that sources indicated Kincaid is considered week to week with a hamstring injury suffered Sunday versus the Dolphins.
This designation indicated the injury was significant enough to keep him out for multiple weeks rather than a minor issue that could heal quickly.​ Kincaid wound up missing his third consecutive game in Week 13 against Pittsburgh.
Kincaid did not practice on Wednesday ahead of the Pittsburgh game, which represented a concerning sign for his Week 13 availability. However, he returned to limited sessions on Thursday and Friday before being listed as questionable heading into Sunday’s contest.​ The fact that Kincaid practiced twice last week, albeit in a limited capacity, represents encouraging news for his recovery timeline.
The Bills did not officially rule Kincaid out until game day, suggesting he was closer to a return than initially thought. Head coach Sean McDermott commented on Kincaid’s progress Monday, acknowledging improvements while refraining from confirming his availability for Week 14.​
Kincaid opened this week ahead of where he was last week, getting in a limited practice on Wednesday. This represents a great sign for his Week 14 outlook.
Players who missed the previous game almost never play if they are not at Wednesday’s practice.​​ Given that Kincaid appeared close to playing last week, it stands to reason he is tracking toward a return this week. Ideally, he will upgrade to a full session by Friday and avoid a final injury designation entirely.
Kincaid’s Fantasy Outlook
If Kincaid can go, the matchup does not get much better. The Bengals allow the most fantasy points per game to tight ends by an impossibly large margin. Cincinnati’s numbers against tight ends are comically bad and approaching historic depths.​
The Bengals have allowed 13 touchdowns to tight ends this year. No other team has allowed more than seven. Only six teams since the 1970 merger have allowed more than 13 receiving touchdowns to tight ends in an entire season.​
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The Bills passing attack has struggled without Kincaid over the past three weeks. Josh Allen is throwing to one of the weakest groups of pass catchers in the NFL. Khalil Shakir serves as the top target earner, operating primarily out of the slot. Beyond Shakir, the receiving corps lacks consistency, with Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, and Curtis Samuel providing limited production.​
Even though Kincaid is only a part time player, Allen looks for him frequently when he is on the field. Kincaid has recorded 29 receptions for 448 yards and four touchdowns on 36 targets through eight games this season.
Kincaid is an easy top five tight end if he can go this week. The combination of the elite matchup and Buffalo’s depleted receiving options makes Kincaid a must-start if he suits up Sunday. Even if his snap count is somewhat limited, the opportunity against Cincinnati’s historically bad tight end coverage makes him a strong fantasy play.​
