Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Indiana Hoosiers were the most likely team to play in the Big Ten Championship Game, but did Curt Cignetti’s squad do enough in its regular season finale to book a trip to Indianapolis?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Indiana’s chances of making it to the Big Ten Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Indiana a 99% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship game ahead of the regular season finale, and the Hoosiers lived up to expectations with a dominant win over the Purdue Boilermakers (2-10, 0-9).
Indiana could play either Ohio State, Michigan, or Oregon based on the latest Big Ten Championship Game scenarios for the rest of Week 14.
The likeliest opponent is Ohio State, who is currently undefeated ahead of their bitter rivalry game with the Michigan Wolverines.
However, if Michigan and Oregon both win, Oregon would rematch the Hoosiers in the title game. With an Oregon loss and a Wolverines win, Michigan would face Cignetti and Co.
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If Indiana had lost to Purdue, the Hoosiers’ Big Ten title chances would have been in danger despite their cruise through the 2025 college football regular season. They could have lost out to Michigan. However, their win over Oregon earlier in the year provided an element of cushion that they ultimately never needed.
What are Indiana’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. Indiana should be in the CFB Playoffs either way.
If the Hoosiers win the title game, they’ll be in automatically. If they lose the title game, they’ll have an At-Large bid. Even with a loss at Purdue, they’d still be a one-loss team, and a two-loss team at most if they play Ohio State in the title game.
The PFSN College FPM gives Indiana a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff and a 47.1% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship. That leaves a 52.9% chance of Indiana being an At-Large bid.
Indiana is currently ranked second in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They are essentially safe for CFB Playoff positioning, but closing out the year strong will give them the most favorable seeding.
Our simulations also give Indiana a 58.9% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 35.1% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and an 18.9% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
