The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New England Patriots players heading into their matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals to help you craft a winning lineup.
Drake Maye, QB
TreVeyon Henderson cashed in two touchdowns from seven yards out, and that eliminated some of the fantasy upside for Drake Maye on Thursday night against the Jets, but good luck getting any sympathy.
Maye has averaged north of eight yards per pass in eight straight games and is showing tremendous signs of development. In three of his past four games, he’s completed over 76% of his passes when taking 2.5+ seconds to throw (10 of his 13 TD passes over that stretch have come on those attempts), something that points to a high level of effectiveness when allowing the play to develop.
That’s huge.
So many young players want to bail after their first read, especially when gifted the physical tools that Maye possesses. So no, I’m not worried that Maye has seen his rushing yardage decline in four straight games or that he hasn’t scored a touchdown on the ground since September.
Instead, I’m encouraged — encouraged that he was five-of-six with a touchdown against the Jets last week when out of the pocket. He’s showing signs of maturity that I didn’t think were on the 2025 radar. He’s now dangerous on the move as a passer and a runner, putting defenses into a true can’t-win situation.
This matchup makes just about any QB interesting, and that makes it impossible to rank Maye too high this week. The bye looms (Week 14), and that’s a pain, but coming out of that for the fantasy playoffs, he’ll be tasked with keeping up with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
This is going to be a fun ride to the finish line!
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Will the toothpaste be put back in the tube?
Rhamondre Stevenson has missed three straight games with this toe injury. But he’s been able to practice in a limited capacity, and the team is operating with cautious optimism regarding his status for this weekend.
But is he still the lead running back in New England?
Mike Vrabel was stubborn in his own right for the first two months of this season. Still, after seeing TreVeyon Henderson flash some of his game-breaking talent (two 55+ yard TD runs in Week 10 against the Bucs being the tip of the iceberg), this is a fluid situation at best.
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Stevenson has averaged under 2.5 yards per carry in three of his past four games and hasn’t earned more than two targets in a game since September. At best, I think we are looking at a committee situation with Henderson holding the edge in the passing game.
Now, this is as good a spot as you could ask for, something that gives me confidence in ranking both as a top 30 option at the position (provided health). That said, I’m skeptical that Stevenson is a plus-asset before New England goes on their bye in Week 14.
After missing extended time, penciling in a ramp-up is reasonable. Coming out of the bye, it seems likely that both of these backs will be at full strength, and that’s when we are going to have to make a real decision. We will deal with that situation when we get there. Still, two matchups against potent offenses immediately after the break (vs. BUF, at BAL) have me leaning very much toward Henderson moving forward.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB
The breakout is upon us, and this looks a lot like 2024 Bucky Irving in a season-winning profile sort of way.
Against the undermanned Jets on Thursday night, the rookie turned his 24 touches into 93 yards and three scores (two rushing and one receiving). Henderson entered the league with plus-grades in his splash play ability, making it ironic that his best game of this season came in a contest in which he didn’t have a single touch gain more than 10 yards.
We obviously saw that in Week 10 in Tampa Bay, and the sky is truly the limit if he can combine the volume with the explosion.
Rhamondre Stevenson is going to come back sooner than later, and that adds some uncertainty to this situation, but does it matter?
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If we are looking at 25-30 touches across the RB position in this Drake Maye offense, even a 50/50 split might be enough to get Henderson into the weekly RB2 discussion with the upside for far more.
That’s my tentative expectation until proven otherwise, and in the scope of Week 12, should Stevenson return, I don’t care. The Bengals have been a bottom-5 pre-contact run defense all season long, and with the projected script very much slanted in favor of New England, you’re starting Henderson (and Stevenson for that matter).
You were patient, and if you’ve managed to survive, get ready to be rewarded!
DeMario Douglas, WR
We entered this season thinking that DeMario Douglas had a chance at being the AFC East’s version of Wan’Dale Robinson, but that hasn’t materialized in the slightest.
His next game with 5+ catches this year will be his first, and he’s oddly relying on big plays to give us any value whatsoever (26+ yard catch in four straight games).
There are a lot of things to like about this Patriots offense, but there is only one that matters for us, and that’s Stefon Diggs. Without the elevated floor that we thought we’d have access to, I’m more likely to cut ties with Douglas than I am to hold.
Kayshon Boutte, WR
A hamstring injury has resulted in consecutive missed games for Kayshon Boutte, but he’s trending toward a return to action for the AFC East leaders.
I don’t think there’s anything to see here, even as part of what is trending toward being labeled as an elite offense.
Boutte hasn’t reached a 22% target share in any game this season and has seen 51.8% of his PPR fantasy points this season come on touchdown receptions. He, of course, doesn’t have to apologize for his ability to make big plays. Still, with the limited ability to earn targets, he’s too reliant on those plays to justify weekly flex consideration.
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It goes without saying that this is a PED matchup: Performance Enhancing Defense. If you’re backed into a corner, Boutte is as good a one-week dart throw as there is, and it’s widely available, though you should make this spot start understanding that it’s a rental situation, not a long-term solution.
Mack Hollins, WR
He’s interesting.
That’s not the first time that word has been used to describe Mack Hollins, but with over 10 PPR points in three of his past four games, it’s now descriptive of his fantasy stock as we approach the most valuable time of year.
I don’t view him as a stable source of production, but he’s carved out a role in a strong offense, and that is how I like to fill out my roster. The veteran receiver has posted an aDOT north of 15 yards in consecutive games, and with Drake Maye putting his name on the short list of top deep ball throwers in the league, that’s a niche I want access to.
He’s not a top 30 receiver, but he’s available in far too many leagues.
Stefon Diggs, WR
There is plenty of target variance in New England these days, but it’s all a race for the WR2 role behind Stefon Diggs.
The veteran receiver has cleared 10 PPR points in five straight games, and it’s not by accident: he’s reached at least 11.5 expected points in four of those contests. The scoring upside isn’t what you’d hope for when attached to a unit like this (two end zone targets and a 23.8% red zone target rate), but with his slot percentage spiking, I’m buying the steady PPR floor moving forward.
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- Weeks 1-8: 43.1% of routes came when lined up in the slot
- Weeks 9-11: 59.2% of routes came when lined up in the slot
He caught three of Drake Maye’s five passes on the first drive, further proof that this offense wants to funnel their aerial attack through the consistency of their WR1. I don’t think we get another explosion game from Diggs moving forward, but counting on him for consistent WR2 value is something I’m very comfortable doing.
Hunter Henry, TE
Hunter Henry is running 27.5 routes per game this season and has cleared that number in three straight. In theory, the role is there as a part of a strong offense, but with just one end zone target over his past six and six games under 40 receiving yards, the range of outcomes is working in his favor in standard-sized leagues.
That said, we did see a nice 24-yard chunk play on Thursday night where Drake Maye sold the play fake hard and showed nice touch over the top on the pass. Any semblance of downfield upside with an extended work week ahead of a matchup against the porous Bengals is worthy of our attention.
I like Henry as a streamer this week, but I’ve got it labeled as more of a matchup play than a role I’m truly interested in for the remainder of the season.
