The San Francisco 49ers’ Week 11 win over the Arizona Cardinals put the team back in a strong position to secure a playoff spot in a crowded NFC race. But San Francisco may not be focused solely on making the postseason, since the division title is still very much in play.
There is a scenario in which the team can still take the division crown, jumping ahead of the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. San Francisco has already beaten both teams this season, although it did drop the second matchup to the Rams. Here is what would need to happen for the 49ers to claim the NFC West title.
What Needs To Happen for the 49ers To Win the NFC West?
The 49ers are currently third in the division, with a 7-4 record, behind the Seahawks at 7-3 and the Rams at 8-2. Unlike their rivals, San Francisco has not yet had its bye, which leaves the team half a game behind Seattle and a game and a half behind Los Angeles.
Deriving from PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor and understanding the odds, the first thing that would need to happen for the 49ers to win the division is for the Rams to lose two games and for Seattle to lose one. With that combination, San Francisco would then have to win all its remaining games to stay alive in the race for the NFC West.
Any scenario in which San Francisco drops a game would require its rivals to lose an additional one as well, which makes the path even more unlikely, especially considering that both the Rams and Seahawks are viewed as two of the hottest teams in the league.
The most realistic losses on the Rams’ schedule appear to be against the Detroit Lions in Week 15 and the Seahawks in Week 16. That would also give the Rams two division losses, something San Francisco needs to gain an edge in the tiebreaker.
For the Seahawks, the key matchup is the Week 18 game against San Francisco. That game would determine the division winner, with Seattle entering at 13-3 to face a 12-4 San Francisco team at Levi’s Stadium, likely on Sunday Night Football to close out the season.
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This scenario would mirror what happened in 2019, when the 49ers traveled to Seattle needing a win to clinch not only the division title but also the NFC’s number one seed, a victory secured by Dre Greenlaw’s goal-line tackle.
A win against Seattle would leave all three teams in the division at 13-4, and San Francisco would win the tiebreaker, with a better record within the division and also within the conference.
San Francisco has only an 11.2% chance of winning the NFC West, according to the PFSN Football Playoff Meter, and it would need its rivals to stumble while also winning out for the scenario to materialize. It is unlikely, but the NFL has delivered plenty of surprises before, and the 49ers simply need to do their part.
