The Buffalo Bills face uncertainty at tight end as they prepare for their Week 11 home matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dalton Kincaid left last week’s game with a hamstring injury. Will fantasy football managers be without the top 10 tight end this week?
Dalton Kincaid Injury Update
Kincaid exited during the third quarter of Buffalo’s Week 10 road loss to the Miami Dolphins with a hamstring injury. He was visibly reaching for the area around the hamstring while leaving the field of play. Initially ruled as questionable to return, Kincaid was seen walking to the locker room alongside a trainer.​
The Bills subsequently ruled him out for the remainder of the eventual 30-13 loss. He registered two catches for 37 yards on three targets prior to leaving. No Bills receiver finished with more than 58 yards in the contest.​
On Monday, ESPN’s Jordan Schultz reported Kincaid is week to week. “Sources: Bills TE Dalton Kincaid is considered week-to-week with a hamstring injury suffered Sunday vs the Dolphins,” Schultz wrote.​
This news is both good and bad. It’s good because there doesn’t seem to be any talk about placing Kincaid on injured reserve. For comparison, Aaron Jones Sr. was immediately placed on IR following his hamstring strain earlier this season. It’s bad news because “week to week” means Kincaid is definitely going to miss some time.
Former NFL team doctor and media injury analyst Dr. David J. Chao noted that “There’s no such thing as a one-week hamstring. Even if he plays, he’s not 100 percent,” emphasizing that Kincaid would be unlikely to play on Sunday.​
It’s safe to say Kincaid won’t practice at all this week and won’t play on Sunday. Then, the Bills have a quick turnaround before their Week 12 Thursday night game against the Houston Texans. Fantasy managers should not expect Kincaid back until at least Week 13, but hopefully he is able to return on that date.​
Kincaid entered the Week 10 matchup with a team-leading 411 receiving yards, along with 27 receptions and four touchdowns through the first nine weeks. His absence leaves quarterback Josh Allen without one of his most reliable targets.​
Kincaid’s Fantasy Outlook
Kincaid’s playing time has been the lowest of his career with just a 43% snap share through nine games. However, he’s been targeted on 26.2% of his routes run, the second highest rate in the league among tight ends. He may not run many routes, but when he does, Josh Allen throws to him.​
That’s been the catalyst for Kincaid averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game despite the limited usage. His 15.4 yards per reception average ranks among the best at the tight end position.​
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With Kincaid out, Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes will split the tight end role. Hawes is primarily a blocker so it will be Knox serving as the pass catcher. Knox had been the Bills’ main tight end before they drafted Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.​
Knox is not quite on the fantasy radar, but he has touchdown or bust appeal for desperate fantasy managers. The veteran has shown he can be a factor in the red zone when given opportunities, though he lacks the target volume to provide consistent fantasy production.​
Khalil Shakir will be the only reliable target remaining for Allen in the passing game for as long as Kincaid is out. The Bills’ offense struggled throughout the loss to Miami, with no clear secondary option emerging behind their top pass-catchers.​
Fantasy managers rostering Kincaid should prepare for a multi-week absence and explore waiver wire options at tight end. The combination of the hamstring injury, Buffalo’s quick turnaround to Thursday Night Football in Week 12, and medical experts’ assessments all point toward Kincaid missing at least two games. Hopefully, he can return fully healthy in Week 13 for the fantasy playoff push.​
