Our college football bowl projections ahead of Week 12 include a prediction for the entire playoff and bowl game matchups for every postseason tilt, all powered by our PFSN College Impact metrics and College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 James Madison Dukes vs. No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 10 USC Trojans vs. No. 7 Oregon Ducks
- No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders
In the first College Football Playoff rankings release, the selection committee showed us precisely what they think of the ACC this season. Then, in Week 11, the conference went ahead and showed the world that the committee might have been right.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are the current projected champion according to the PFSN FPM, and they slide in just ahead of the fifth-highest-ranked champion, James Madison.
MORE: PFSN Midseason All-America College Football Team
Texas Tech emerged victorious from the biggest game of the Week 11 slate and now looks imperious in pursuit of the Big 12 title. The SEC teams did exactly what was expected of them this weekend, maintaining a status quo in our college football bowl projections.
Where things begin to get interesting is with the USC Trojans, who might be considered an outsider but have a 47.4% chance to reach the playoff. They would need to take down Oregon on the road, but the Ducks looked beatable in Week 11.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 5 Georgia
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 7 Oregon
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 8 Texas Tech
The impact of Week 11 really begins to show when you get into the playoff quarterfinal stage of our college football bowl projections. According to the PFSN FPM, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, and Georgia would be the first round winners, setting up some unique matchups, particularly as the inevitable all-SEC clash is one that didn’t occur in the 2025 regular season.
That battle between Ole Miss and Alabama is projected to be the closest of the quarterfinals, with the PFSN FPM forecasting a two-point win for the Crimson Tide. Meanwhile, the College Football Playoff pits two defensive juggernauts against each other in the Rose Bowl, with the Buckeyes a 7.5-point favorite over Texas Tech, according to our metrics.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Alabama
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas A&M
The College Football Playoff format remains a topic of conversation, with everyone from conference commissioners to the average fan on the street having an opinion on the best path forward. It’s hard to argue that we don’t have a perfect setup right now, with our college football bowl projections pitting together the top four teams in the country in the semifinal.
Julian Sayin vs. Ty Simpson is a clash of potential Heisman Trophy contenders, with the Buckeyes boasting a 63.1% winning percentage per the PFSN FPM. Meanwhile, the all-Big Ten vs. SEC semifinal lineup sees two ferocious defenses go at it in the Peach Bowl, with the Fernando Mendoza-led Hoosiers considered a 58.9% favorite to go all the way to the title game.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
A repeat of the likely Big Ten Championship Game as the College Football National Championship Game? Why not? We’ve seen stranger things happen before, and if it’s good enough for the SEC, it’s sure good enough for our college football bowl projections. On a neutral site, the PFSN FPM gives the Buckeyes a 52.5% chance of winning, with a two-point victory margin.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
Delaware State vs. Jackson State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
Boise State vs. California
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Toledo vs. Old Dominion
Cure Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs. Navy
68 Ventures Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Gasparilla Bowl
East Carolina vs. UConn
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
UNLV vs. Ohio
Boca Raton Bowl
UTSA vs. New Mexico
New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Kennesaw State
Frisco Bowl
Marshall vs. Utah State
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. Louisiana Tech
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Buffalo vs. Rutgers
Rate Bowl
Iowa State vs. Northwestern
First Responder Bowl
Memphis vs. Kansas State
Military Bowl
NC State vs. South Florida
Pinstripe Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. Nebraska
Fenway Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
San Diego State vs. Miami (OH)
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. Missouri State
Gator Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Oklahoma
Texas Bowl
Houston vs. Tennessee
Birmingham Bowl
North Texas vs. Clemson
Independence Bowl
TCU vs. Washington State
Music City Bowl
Minnesota vs. Missouri
Alamo Bowl
BYU vs. Washington
ReliaQuest Bowl
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt
Sun Bowl
Louisville vs. Arizona
Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Texas
Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs. Illinois
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. Kansas
Liberty Bowl
Baylor vs. Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Duke vs. LSU
Holiday Bowl
SMU vs. Arizona State
Bahamas Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan
