The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key San Francisco 49ers players heading into their matchup with the Atlanta Falcons to help you craft a winning lineup.
Brock Purdy, QB
Brock Purdy tried to return from this toe injury in Week 4 and lasted long enough to throw 38 passes, but the setback has sidelined him for every week since.
The raw talent on this roster has helped Purdy average north of 4,000 passing yards and 29 pass-plus-rush TDs over the previous two seasons. If the Injury Fairy sprinkles pixie dust on this organization, there is loads of fantasy potential to chase, and that’s why I think a player like Purdy needs to be held, but not played right now.
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Week 11 at Arizona Cardinals
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Week 12 vs. Carolina Panthers
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Week 15 vs. Tennessee Titans
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Week 17 vs. Chicago Bears
He’s going to be on the QB1 radar with time and a little bit of health fortune. I’m not interested in playing a compromised version of him until we know that he’s far enough past this injury for it not to impact how he plays, and for that to be the case, I need proof.
I’m not playing Purdy in the week he returns, whenever that may be.
Mac Jones, QB
I don’t want to say that the clock struck midnight on Mac Jones over the weekend because he still threw for 347 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he didn’t account for a touchdown, threw a pair of picks, and lost 51 yards via six sacks.
I can’t really put all the blame at his feet; he’s working with a backup cast and doing the best he can, but when Jake Tonges is consistently a featured part of your attack, there’s some downside to consider.
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What Jones could do in this spot intrigues me should he get two valuable pieces back (George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall), though that remains to be seen, and it’s just as likely that Purdy (toe) returns to start for this team.
I love that Jones funneled 24 of 37 targets (64.9%) to his three primary weapons, and that five different players had catches of more than 15 yards. He’s done enough, along with the scheming excellence of Kyle Shanahan, to be worthy of your consideration when he gets a chance, but I’m only going this direction this week if he has more in the way of reinforcements.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
Bijan Robinson technically pulled ahead of Christian McCaffrey for RB1 honors through six weeks in terms of PPR PPG.
“Technically pulled ahead.”
The fact that it’s that tight is insane to me. Robinson is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, while McCaffrey is at 3.1 and has not had a rush of more than 15 yards this season. I can’t imagine the rushing numbers getting worse, and the fact that he can improve dramatically is difficult to comprehend.
CMC scored his first rushing touchdown of the season over the weekend against the Buccaneers (he’s scored in four of his past five games) and is pacing for 130 receptions.
We are spoiled to have these two stars sharing a field this week.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR
The 49ers were hoping for a mid-October return for Brandon Aiyuk, a former first-round pick who had ranked 11th in the NFL with 2,357 yards from the start of 2022 to the end of 2023, but that now sounds like a pipe dream with his status being labeled as “not close” in the middle of last week.
By getting some clarity on the health front in the first half of August, we were at least able to enter drafts with some sort of plan. Aiyuk is hanging out on your IR slot for the time being, meaning that he is not costing you a roster spot and thus isn’t taking much win equity off of your plate early on.
In a perfect world, his injury recovery would have taken us past the San Francisco bye week, but it doesn’t (Week 14 bye). That said, a fully functional Aiyuk coming down the stretch for an offense that needs an alpha WR in a favorable stretch (Titans, Indianapolis Colts, and Bears in Weeks 15-17) could be the piece that swings your fantasy postseason.
This injury was priced into Aiyuk’s cost at your draft, so there’s no point in trying to trade for him now. But what if his manager starts slow? What if panic mode sets in before we have a definitive return date?
I’m making a mental note of who has Aiyuk rostered and tracking their status, preparing to pounce should the losses pile up. We are nearing the point in the process where a low-ball offer could be mutually beneficial, so keep your head on a swivel!
Jauan Jennings, WR
Do we really know what a healthy Jauan Jennings looks like?
He’s been battling rib and ankle injuries for a month now, and while he’s taken the field twice over that stretch, he’s produced under a half-yard per route and has been a shell of himself.
I’m done guessing.
There are situations where I’ll jump the line and be early, but this isn’t one, given the lingering nature of these ailments. When this roster is whole, are we sure that there is a fantasy-viable role for Jennings to step into?
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Pearsall is going to be tasked with stretching the field, and that opens up the short passing game. That’s good for Jennings’ profile, but with Kittle and McCaffrey soaking up those looks in bulk, I have Jennings looking at more of a five-target type of role, and that’s a low-end flex at best in a Purdy-led offense.
Injuries could continue to vault Jennings into a reasonable role this week, but the Falcons are the best YAC defense against opposing wide receivers this season. Should Pearsall sit, I’ll end up ranking Jennings and Kendrick Bourne in the same tier, one that sits just outside the top 30 at the position.
Kendrick Bourne, WR
After totaling 87 yards in September, Bourne has opened October with a pair of 142-yard performances on the road, first against the Rams and on Sunday opposite the Bucs.
His size makes him a threat to high point any pass, and his ability to do so is certainly why he’s been on the field more with Pearsall (knee) sidelined, but the profile, for these two weeks at least, has some teeth to it.
The three deep catches are what you’d expect, but he also has a play with 15+ YAC yards in both contests. Bourne has never been a featured player in this league (career high: 55 catches with the New England Patriots in 2021), and I’m not sold that he’ll get extended opportunities when this offense is remotely close to full, but we aren’t there right now.
For me, he’s keeping Pearsall’s spot in the rankings warm until otherwise noted. The Falcons’ defense has been stout this season, but Bourne is a part of a Shanahan offense that gets the benefit of playing a team on short rest.
If you’re stuck in an uncomfortable spot, I prefer Bourne to all healthy Buccaneer WRs and Jakobi Meyers, players that I’ve seen penciled in ahead of him across the industry so far.
Ricky Pearsall, WR
There was some hope that Pearsall would return last week from this knee injury, but he never saw the practice field and missed a second consecutive game.
Generally speaking, I’ve been encouraged about what we’ve seen from the second-year playmaker. It’s only a month’s worth of data, but with a 15.9-yard aDOT and a 69% catch rate, there is upside very much worth exploring.
In 2024, only one player (Terry McLaurin) had an aDOT north of 13 yards and hauled in at least two-thirds of his targets. The efficient ways of Purdy give Pearsall the potential to sustain that rare combination of upside and stability, thus making him a player I am inclined to rank as a viable flex option more often than not.
Of course, to do so, we need this roster to get close to full strength. I hope that we trend that direction this week, but given the multiple missed weeks, this is a situation you will want to track closely as the weekend approaches.
George Kittle, TE
The top of the TE board has been brutal this season. Brock Bowers has been banged up, Trey McBride’s QB missed Week 6, and we haven’t seen Kittle since the opener.
The latter could be rectified this week, as there is cautious optimism that we get San Francisco’s former All-Pro back from the hamstring injury that he suffered after turning 13 routes into 12.5 PPR points in the Week 1 win in Seattle.
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Outside of “bad injury vibes” for the 49ers, I can’t imagine a world in which you’re not jumping at the opportunity to reinsert him into your lineup the second he’s deemed active. He set career highs in fantasy points over expectation, red-zone target rate, and PPR points per target in 2021, production levels I’d expect to return sooner rather than later.
Is there risk involved with betting on a tight end who is at less than full strength? Of course, but there’s more risk in betting on the inferior talent that you’ve been replacing him with over the past month-plus, so I’m not wasting time overthinking this one.
For those who celebrate, National Tight End Day occurs one week from Sunday.
Jake Tonges, TE
There’s a real chance you couldn’t have told me if Tonges was running to be mayor in Idaho or a pro athlete two months ago, and yet, for the past three weeks, he’s stabilized a spot on your fantasy roster.
I mean, it’s him, Jake Ferguson, and Tyler Higbee when it comes to listing the tight ends with 11+ PPR points in each of their past three games.
This is a crazy world.
He’s seen 23 passes thrown his way over this stretch and has made the most of them, but I don’t think there’s anything he could have done to have earned himself a role alongside Kittle.
Reporting is cautiously optimistic around the former All-Pro, and if he does return this week, the Tonges experience is over. If you have the roster flexibility to hold onto him for the first game Kittle returns, I would, but I understand if you don’t.
