Looking at the chaos surrounding several NFL teams right now, fantasy football managers need to pay close attention to how injuries are reshaping target distributions. When star players go down, opportunity often shifts to unexpected places, creating potential goldmines on the waiver wire.
The key is identifying which backup players are stepping into expanded roles with favorable matchups ahead. Sometimes the best fantasy plays come from the most unlikely sources when circumstances align perfectly.
Start ‘Em: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are completely decimated on offense. As of the conclusion of Week 6, they are down their RB1 and their top four wide receivers. Somehow, this is not the first time this has happened.
Last season, from Weeks 7-9, the Bucs operated mainly without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It was in that Week 7 game in which both of their wide receivers got hurt. In their absence, Baker Mayfield leaned on his tight end. Cade Otton posted lines of 8-100, 9-81-2, and 8-77-1 in the three games Evans missed.
There is a chance Evans can return this week, but Godwin and Emeka Egbuka are not going to play. At worst, that puts Otton at No. 2 on the target hierarchy.
The Lions are middle-of-the-pack against tight ends, but bottom five against quarterbacks. We can expect high-end production from Mayfield. If that comes to fruition, he’s probably bringing his TE with him.
Mason Taylor, New York Jets
Even though we’re fading Justin Fields, that doesn’t mean Mason Taylor can’t have a bounce-back performance. Of course, no one in this passing attack was able to get going last week as Fields threw for a mere 45 yards. Things can’t possibly be worse this week.
Taylor is in a very favorable spot for a couple of reasons. First, he’s the clear TE1, playing 95% of the snaps against the Denver Broncos.
Second, Garrett Wilson is unlikely to play with a knee injury, which would potentially move Taylor up to the primary pass-catching role.
Third, Fields is liable to get benched at halftime. Tyrod Taylor would undoubtedly be an upgrade to this entire offense.
Add in the fact that the Panthers allow the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and Taylor could succeed despite an otherwise disastrous New York Jets offense.
Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. already had a standalone role in the Cleveland Browns offense that was enough to justify his spot on fantasy rosters. But the target competition and David Njoku’s presence capped his upside.
Last week, Njoku left the game with a knee injury. He tried to return, but couldn’t. That resulted in Fannin seeing an 80% snap share. The rookie tight end caught a season-high seven passes for a season-high 81 yards. Granted, most of it came in garbage time, but that still counts.
On Monday, head coach Kevin Stefanski had no update on Njoku’s status. That’s not a good sign for his availability. In all likelihood, the veteran will miss this Sunday’s game, putting Fannin into the full-time role against a Miami Dolphins defense that allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Given Dillon Gabriel’s penchant for checking it down, Fannin is a borderline must-start if Njoku doesn’t play.
Sit ‘Em: T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
At some point, it’s time to accept that the T.J. Hockenson who averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game in 2023 might be gone for good.
It’s fair to give Hockenson a pass for his dismal 2024 season. He averaged 8.7 PPG, but also was returning from a torn ACL that limited him to 10 games. This year, that excuse does not exist.
Hockenson benefited from Jordan Addison’s three-game suspension to start the season. It didn’t help. Aaron Jones Sr. has missed three games. That didn’t help. The Minnesota Vikings TE is averaging 8.1 PPG, his worst showing since his rookie season.
This week, Hockenson gets a Philadelphia Eagles defense that allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Justin Jefferson and Addison are both healthy. They are the top two targets on this team. It remains to be seen if JJ McCarthy is ready to return or if it will be another week of Carson Wentz. Either way, it’s a bad QB situation against a good defense that will be angry after getting blown out by the Giants.
