The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New England Patriots players heading into their matchup with the New Orleans Saints to help you craft a winning lineup.
Drake Maye, QB
I’ve played fantasy for as long as I can remember, and I don’t remember being so entertained/impressed with a zero-touchdown effort as I was with Drake Maye in Buffalo on Sunday night.
Despite failing to account for a score for the first time this season and not clearing 30 pass attempts for the third time in four weeks, I walked away believing that he is, in fact, the closest thing this new crop of QBs has to Josh Allen.
Maye completed seven passes outside of the pocket in the victory, topping his previous season high of three. While these plays didn’t result in many fantasy points (87 yards), they are the type of drive-extending plays that open up potential scoring opportunities.
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I know, I know, “potential” opportunities don’t pay the bills, and they didn’t on Sunday, but the ability to succeed in those spots is rare.
He completed over 74% of his in-pocket passes for the fourth consecutive game, and the rushing ability is undoubtedly there. We are seeing the pieces of this beautiful fantasy puzzle put together, and you don’t want to jump ship just because his streak of three straight top-eight finishes at the position was snapped.
I can assure you: there aren’t eight QBs you’d rather have the rest of the way, especially when you remind yourself of the cupcake schedule all AFC East teams have access to.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
“What doesn’t kill us makes us stronger.”
In most locker rooms, the football equivalent is “what doesn’t kill possessions makes us stronger,” an ideology that Mike Vrabel seems hellbent on challenging.
I’m not sure if he’s stubborn or what, but at this point, it feels like every Rhamondre Stevenson fumble gives him life. It gives him a platform to stand and preach about the importance of having the back of the guy beside you.
In theory, it has served as a rallying point and worked for a Patriots team that is back in the AFC East mix. Stevenson managers are certainly thankful for the loyalty, and with Antonio Gibson done for the season, there’s a pretty clear path for his touch count to move from 10 to 14-16.
But is that in the best interest of this team?
I need more than a 7.9% significant rush rate to overlook the ball security issues, especially with a high-pedigree prospect waiting in the wings. Through five weeks, Stevenson has been on the field for 53.3% of New England’s red zone snaps (Gibson: 24.4% and TreVeyon Henderson: 22.2%), a role that he seems to have in hand.
I think Henderson is the best bet for winter production that could swing your fantasy postseason, but with each passing week, I soften that stance. At this point, the most likely outcome is that none of these backs are viable every week, and that’s disappointing given the trajectory of this offense.
Even in an intense matchup, I’m not confident that either RB reaches 15 touches, so both are outside of my top 25 at the position.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB
With multiple catches in every game this season and a few sparks, you can’t cut ties with Henderson, but the Patriots have made it annoyingly clear that they are willing to ride and die with Stevenson.
The starting running back put the ball on the grass again last week, and Vrabel insisted that he work through it, not in the upcoming week in practice, but on the forthcoming drive.
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They upset the Bills in Buffalo, so it’s hard to imagine that any lasting damage was done from yet another turnover. Henderson will continue to be on the wrong end of this committee, and if he’s not getting enough work to prove himself (47 touches through five weeks), it’s hard to see the touch distribution change in a meaningful way.
The schedule is awfully light for New England over the next two months: if Henderson ever gets his chance to shine, there’s a real chance he does, and that’s why I’m not considering anything but holding the 38th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Kayshon Boutte, WR
We are done here. Kayshon Boutte overachieved in the first two weeks (41 PPR points with 24.4 expected points) and has been slowly phased out of this passing game while Hunter Henry and Stefon Diggs do the heavy lifting.
Boutte hasn’t reached seven expected points in four straight games, failing to reach 50 air yards on each occasion. The Maye growth tour is underway, and Boutte missed the bus. You can safely cut ties and target other offenses for a breakout option at the position.
Stefon Diggs, WR
Fountain of Youth?
Full ACL recovery?
Random blip?
Depending on the lens you look through, Diggs could be labeled as anything from a must-trade-away player to a future league winner.
In Weeks 1-3, 61 receivers averaged more yards per route than the veteran, but over the past two weeks, he’s blown away the field with 247 yards on 41 routes (6.02 yards per route, nearly quadruple the positional average over that stretch).
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It should be clear that the proper projection moving forward lies somewhere between Calvin Johnson’s peak and the 62nd-best receiver in today’s game. We expect the New England offense to continue growing as Maye develops, which has me optimistic about Diggs’ potential to return to startable numbers moving forward.
Upward trajectory alone isn’t enough to lock in a player, so let’s look under the hood a bit:
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Weeks 2-3: 5.8 aDOT with 55.4% slot share
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Weeks 4-5: 10.3 aDOT with 40.4% slot share
And this is where the interesting discussion comes in. If you’re buying Diggs as fully recovered, that’s the profile you want. Maye can extend plays, thus allowing an experienced player like Diggs to find holes down the field.
If you think this is a nice spurt, but that a receiver past his prime, coming off an ACL injury, will have an issue winning vertically, then we have a problem. Over the past two weeks, the Patriots have told us that they are in the former camp, asking their WR1 to forgo the easy button targets in favor of more field-tilting looks.
To my eye, Diggs looks fluid, and that has me singing an optimistic tune for now. I don’t think a matchup with the Saints will teach us much, and that could well be the case next week in Tennessee, too. Regardless of what side of the coin you fall on, holding is the play.
With these two favorable matchups, you stand to have an asset that gains value in the short term. A late bye (Week 14) is a pain, and a Week 17 trip to Gotham to face the Jets isn’t optimal, but the schedule is otherwise advantageous.
If you’re going to sell, you wait. If you’re sold, you ride this bus to the finish line. Either way, you’re playing him this weekend (I have him ranked over Jameson Williams, Calvin Ridley, and Ladd McConkey for Week 6).
Hunter Henry, TE
Do you think the Patriots win or lose this game?
Hunter Henry usage by result:
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Wins (3): 64 routes and 9 targets
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Losses (2): 75 routes and 19 targets
He had the long touchdown in Week 4 against the Panthers, but he’s looking like a script-dependent tight end, and that makes his weekly value reliant on what you think of New England as a whole.
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I worry that his looks are trending down with Diggs finding the Fountain of Youth: can this offense only sustain one pass catcher?
I’m keeping Henry on the TE1 fringe, but that third tier at the position is awfully fluid, and I don’t think you’re out of the long-term streaming mix if you’re currently comfortable holding New England’s TE1.
