Week 6 brings crucial decisions for fantasy football managers as bye weeks and injuries create opportunities and challenges across rosters. Running back situations remain particularly volatile, with several players poised for breakout performances while others face difficult matchups that could derail championship aspirations.
Smart lineup decisions this week could separate contenders from pretenders in league standings. The key is identifying which players have the favorable game scripts and defensive matchups to exceed expectations, while avoiding those likely to disappoint despite big-name recognition.
Start ‘Em: Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers
It’s too early to say for sure whether Chuba Hubbard will return this week. Given that he aggravated his calf injury two weeks ago, resulting in three consecutive DNPs at practice, we should operate under the assumption that Hubbard will miss at least one more game. But even if Hubbard plays, there’s plenty of reason to like Rico Dowdle anyway.
Dowdle had the best game of his career last week. He carried the ball 23 times for 206 yards and a touchdown. He also added three catches for 28 yards. Of course, it helped to face a bottom-five run defense in the Miami Dolphins, but that doesn’t discount what Dowdle was able to do.
Before Hubbard’s injury, this was about at a 65/35 split in favor of Hubbard. Without Hubbard, it was all Dowdle. He played 67% of the snaps and handled 85% of the backfield’s opportunities. Dowdle is a workhorse.
This week, not only does Dowdle get a defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, but it’s the Dallas Cowboys. It’s a revenge game!
While these types of narratives are often overblown, in this case, there’s merit to it. Dowdle gave the Cowboys ample reason to bring him back after his 1,000-yard season last year. They chose not to. These players are still humans with emotions. You know Dowdle wants to stick it to his former team.
If Hubbard plays, Dowdle is still a good bet for 8-10 touches and goal-line work. If Hubbard misses another game, which we suspect he will, Dowdle is a clear RB1 against a bad defense he wants to embarrass.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears returned last week, leading many to believe he might eat into Tony Pollard’s usage. Pollard did play a season-low 73% of the snaps. However, his volume was unaffected.
Pollard touched the ball 17 times, totaling 78 yards and a touchdown. Spears played a mere 25% of the snaps and handled four carries. He did not see a target.
It’s encouraging that Pollard could still excel in a below-average matchup with his talented backup returning. Now, he gets a Las Vegas Raiders defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
The Raiders just got eviscerated by Jonathan Taylor. Obviously, Pollard is nowhere near as talented as JT, but he’s used similarly and will see the same type of volume.
Pollard has been largely a floor player all season. This could be the week we finally see a ceiling.
Sit ‘Em: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown wasn’t exactly playing well before Joe Burrow went down. He only averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game over Weeks 1 and 2. Since then, however, it has been a disaster.
Brown’s volume has cratered with the Cincinnati Bengals unable to sustain drives. After seeing 24 and 19 opportunities to start the season, Brown has had 15, 13, and 16 in his last three games. Most notably, he’s topped out at just 10 carries, mainly due to the Bengals experiencing negative game script every game Jake Browning has started.
Things have been bad. They are about to get much worse.
The Bengals now face the misfortune of a road game against the Packers, who are fresh coming off their bye week. Green Bay is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They are also very good at stopping running backs from catching passes, which has been the only thing sustaining Brown’s dwindling fantasy value.
Brown caught seven passes last week, albeit for a measly 21 yards. The Packers have seen opponents target the running back position at a rate of 21%. Yet, only eight teams are allowing a lower percentage of their receiving yards to go to the RB position. Teams try to throw to running backs against the Packers. It just doesn’t work.
This is a terrible spot for the entire Bengals offense. They might be making a quarterback change. Brown hasn’t been outstanding when he has touched the ball. If you start him, you are hoping he bumbles his way into the end zone.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Can you imagine actually benching Derrick Henry? It seems absurd to bring it up, especially considering we know he’s not washed. Henry didn’t go from being capable of running for 169 yards in Week 1 to being cooked in Week 5.
The reality is that Henry has always been game script-dependent. The reason the move to Baltimore worked so well is that the Ravens have been one of the best offenses in football whenever Lamar Jackson is on the field. Unfortunately, he wasn’t last week and won’t be again this week.
Henry scored a touchdown last week, but still somehow failed to reach double-digit fantasy points. He’s rushed for 21 fewer yards in his previous four games combined than he did in Week 1 alone.
Now, Henry gets to go up against a Los Angeles Rams defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Christian McCaffrey was able to smash against them because he caught eight passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. Henry does not catch passes. He will have to get it done on the ground, which no one has been able to do against the Rams.
Can you actually bench Henry? That’s up to you. These are merely the facts. Henry has been between 7.8 and 10.7 fantasy points for three straight weeks and now gets his toughest test of the season. Do with that what you will.
