The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Carolina Panthers players heading into their matchup with the Miami Dolphins to help you craft a winning lineup.
Bryce Young, QB
Bryce Young was a story of last winter in fantasy circles because it appeared that he had turned a corner. The former first overall pick put up some gaudy numbers, and when the team added Tetairoa McMillan in April, the sleeper buzz hit a fever pitch.
We might have jumped the gun.
Young has been held under 155 passing yards in three of four games, and with just 13 rushing yards over the past three weeks, there really is no path for him to matter in standard formats.
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If you squint and want to leverage this matchup against a Dolphins defense that is on short rest in a two-QB league, more power to you. Miami’s limitations on the defensive side of things are essentially the equivalent of what Young has done at the QB position.
Over the past two weeks, Young has thrown 54 passes, and exactly none of them have resulted in a gain longer than 23 yards. I don’t trust his quality or quantity when it comes to attempts, and that makes him a near-impossible sell, even in a cushy spot like this one.
Chuba Hubbard, RB
We all seem to agree that Chuba Hubbard is an above-average talent, and there is no debating his role as the bellcow in Carolina, but if he’s not finding the end zone, he’s in trouble.
In Weeks 1-2, he scored and was a top-10 producer at the position. In Weeks 3-4, he didn’t and wasn’t a top-25 running back in PPR formats.
All running backs at some level need touchdowns to sustain value, so I’m not turned off by that idea, but given the ineptitude of the Panthers, it’s a problem.
Splash plays have also been hard to come by for Hubbard in 2022: 10.4% of his carries gained 10+ yards last season, 3.8% this season. There simply isn’t much room to operate in this Bryce Young system, but he’s been able to salvage some value with 3+ targets in all four weeks.
There is no real blueprint for Hubbard to post a top-5 week, but in this matchup, where the game script should stay reasonably neutral, I suspect we see him flirt with RB1 status for the week, and that makes him a viable play in every form of fantasy.
Jalen Coker, WR
I was excited about Jalen Coker early in the draft process this summer, thinking that the second-year receiver had a real chance to earn meaningful targets in a developing offense. That optimism grew after the Adam Thielen trade, but a day later, a “significant quad injury” landed him on IR.
That means Coker has missed the required time, but reporting out of Carolina during this process seemed to point to mid-October as the most likely return date. I still believe there’s something in this profile, especially with Xavier Legette struggling and banged up.
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If you have room at the end of your bench, I think this is a reasonable stashing option, if for no other reason than Carolina getting New Orleans and Tampa Bay in Weeks 15-16. This isn’t a high waiver priority add, but if it costs you nothing, there’s more potential to chase than the last player on many rosters currently have access to.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR
Tetairoa McMillan certainly looks the part of a future star in this league, but he’s developing a bit of a Bryce Young problem, and that’s something that can suck the fantasy upside out of even a high-upside player like this.
He’s flirting with a 50% catch rate this season and, for reasons unknown, ranks third in end zone targets for a team that rarely gets within shouting distance of the paint.
Despite the consistent volume and playmaking (8+ targets and a 20+ yard catch in all four games), the limitations of this offense have held McMillan under 70 receiving yards three times.
The involvement and matchup dictate that he is a WR2 for me this week, and while I question the upside, he should have a reasonable floor in a matchup against a below-average defense that is operating on short rest.
Xavier Legette, WR
A hamstring cost Xavier Legette Week 3 after a limited practice week, and if this is the first you’re hearing of that, it tells you all you need to know.
This is an inconsistent offense at best, and Legette has yet to make good on the Round 1 draft capital that was spent on him (eight yards on 15 targets this season).
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The ability to earn targets is at least interesting, but there’s no reason to try to get ahead of the curve in a situation like this.
Nothing in this Carolina pass game is consistent week-to-week, and with Tetairoa McMillan vacuuming in targets weekly, there simply isn’t enough meat left on this bone to like any secondary pass catcher with Bryce Young at the controls.
Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE
Ja’Tavion Sanders suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3 and is going to miss “multiple weeks”.
The 22-year-old tight end sparked in Week 2 against the Cardinals with seven catches, but even that came in that chaotic comeback attempt where Bryce Young threw 30 (!) passes in the fourth quarter.
I continue to think there is something in this profile. The blend of size and athleticism is that of an asset in this league, especially for an offense that is theoretically in the process of building. His target share, albeit in a small sample, was improved last season, and that’s impressive with an aDOT that was up 25.4% from his rookie campaign.
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Tetairoa McMillan is going to be the alpha target earner in this offense for years to come, but after that, we are looking at a lot of middling talents without much proof of concept in the target-earning department.
Sanders doesn’t need to be held onto in redraft leagues if he was ever on a roster in the first place. Maybe he can be a streamer option in the second half of this season, but we will address that when we see that he is fully healthy and involved.
