The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Baltimore Ravens players heading into their matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs to help you craft a winning lineup.
Lamar Jackson, QB
Win, lose. Rain, shine. It doesn’t matter; Lamar Jackson is as good a bet as anyone in the sport to put you in position to win your week.
Not only has he been a top four scorer at the position in all three weeks this season, but he’s also been a top six producer in 14 of his past 22. The floor is so high for a player who has mastered every aspect of this game. If there is any shying away from Derrick Henry due to the recent fumble issues (for the record, I don’t expect there to be), the floor/ceiling combination only improves.
The Lions sacked him seven times and shut down his WR1. That should mean that he struggled, but he still totaled 323 yards of offense and three scores.
Inevitable.
Derrick Henry, RB
The Chiefs’ defense is great, and the drumbeat around Derrick Henry putting the ball on the ground in all three games this season is real.
And I mean this with as much respect as possible, but you’re insane if you’re not rolling out Henry this week.
The Broncos were the third-best per-carry run defense last season, and Henry lit them up for 133 yards and two scores. He’s matchup-proof, and I don’t think the ball security issues are anything to sweat.
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Maybe I’m out on a limb, but I’ll take my chances on a decade’s worth of data points over a weird September.
If Henry comes in at a low ownership number in the DFS streets, you can rest easy knowing where my lineups are going to start.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
DeAndre Hopkins is going to make an impactful play either late in this regular season that impacts the playoff race or during the postseason.
That I feel good about.
I’ve been surprised with how spry the 33-year-old looks when given the opportunity, but the Ravens are smart and are managing his reps (exactly two targets in all three games).
Hopkins scored in each of the first two weeks this season and forced an end zone DPI on Monday night. When Baltimore calls his number, it’s almost only for high-impact plays, and that gives them access to upside that they’ve lacked in the past.
That said, I don’t think there’s enough meat on this bone to demand we roster him. If you want access to this offense on your bench, Rashod Bateman is on the field much more and would be my preferred option.
Hopkins can still make plays, but in a game of opportunity, he’s not passing the sniff test, and I don’t expect that to change as we approach the dog days of the season.
Rashod Bateman, WR
Rashod Bateman had easily his best game of the season on Monday night against the Lions, hauling in five of seven targets for 63 yards and a three-yard score.
There is theoretical upside in Bateman. He has a defined skill set as a part of one of the five best offenses in the league. Teams can’t allocate safety help over the top because all hands need to be on deck to stop Derrick Henry from ruining the game, and Lamar Jackson has turned himself into one of the best pure passers in the league.
But if I can’t trust Zay Flowers and the tight ends in this offense, all of whom I think are more talented and vital to the success of this offense, how can I get there on the secondary receiver?
Trick question, I can’t.
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Bateman is a perfect plug-and-play option that is essentially matchup-proof when you need him. If you’re battling injuries or byes throughout the season, he’s on the field for an offense that is going to score 25+ points more often than not.
But choosing to play him over players who mean more to their respective teams (There are obvious names, but I’m looking at the upside of a player like Matthew Golladay or Keon Coleman as similar players that I consistently rank higher) just isn’t going to happen for me.
Zay Flowers, WR
We are going to see more than we want to.
Think about some of the top teams in the league this season. Your mind will likely go to the Bills, Packers, Eagles, Ravens, and a few others. In those mentioned examples, the ground game is so strong that the passing volume is at risk every single week, and when that’s the case, good players are going to have down weeks.
It’s just math.
Zay Flowers had 14 catches for 218 yards and a score through two weeks before the dud on Monday night against the Lions (two catches for 13 yards).
It’s disappointing, but like a classroom of kids taking advantage of a substitute teacher, it shouldn’t come as a surprise. Flowers continued to earn eight targets per game last season and cleared 1,000 yards, but it didn’t come without eight contests where he failed to reach 40 receiving yards.
This is simply the cost of doing business with the Ravens.
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I’m not worried about Flowers’ year-end numbers, but you should be aware that this isn’t the last time he’ll leave you wanting more. I like him to bounce back this week (WR18 for me) against a Chiefs defense that figures to press the line of scrimmage (seventh in both blitz and pressure rate thus far), thus leaving the agile Flowers on an island to win in a hurry.
Isaiah Likely, TE
Isaiah Likely is nearing his return (foot), but time will only tell what his return to action will look like.
The hope is that he can continue his subtle breakout and grace the top 10 at the position when it matters most this winter, though it’s safe to say that we need to see it before assuming it.
For me, stashing Likely is more of a long-term bet against Mark Andrews than anything. There is a three-week window (Weeks 13-15: two Bengals games and the home Steelers game) during which the fantasy regular and postseasons merge that is likely to project very well for this offense, potentially giving them two pass catchers that rank as starters for a critical stretch.
Zay Flowers seems like a good bet to be half of that equation, but who will be second? Likely could be, and that fact alone makes him worth holding in formats with average-to-deep benches.
Mark Andrews, TE
With Isaiah Likely’s return nearing, we finally got the explosive Mark Andrews game that we were waiting for.
Only time will tell about the usage of these two, not to mention the dynamic player in Zay Flowers — quiet on Monday night after a strong start to the season — but I think Andrews is exactly who we thought he was.
A tight end who needs touchdowns to drive his value and is in a better position to score consistently than most.
The volume on Monday was great to see (five catches before any of his teammates had even four targets), but that’s not where you’re hanging your hat.
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He scored 11 times a season ago thanks to earning a target on 28.3% of his red zone routes, and he’s at 27.3% through three weeks this season. I’d recommend selling high after the strong performance against the Lions, but my hunch is that the first two weeks did too much damage to allow for that.
But if he scores again in this spot and your league is back to labeling him as a top-five player at the position, that’s when you cash in the chips.
