Fantasy football championships are rarely made on draft day. Sure, that’s your foundation, but the best managers understand that their roster is always a work in progress. Here are some angles that could present themselves after the first week of action.
Tuesday’s Headlines Today
Kyren Concerns After Williams Whiffs
Week 1 Headline: Kyren Williams has been productive in consecutive seasons — at least 1,100 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns in both years — but leaves managers wondering if they burned a late second-round pick after a single-digit showing against the Texans.
Take: Not every matchup is going to be as stout as this one, but I do think there’s something to it. Williams’ average touchdown rush through three seasons has been just 4.6 yards (76.9% have come inside the five), and that’s a good skill to have, but will those opportunities present themselves as often in 2025?
There are more paths to failure here than I am comfortable with. The obvious worry is Matthew Stafford’s back and the feeling that this house of cards could come crashing down should the 37-year-old miss time.
I’m not going to state the obvious. If Stafford goes down, the value of everyone in this offense dips, especially a player who needs touchdowns to pay off his draft day cost. To that end, are we sure that Williams is in a position to repeat his recent success, even if No. 9 is under center for the entire season?
Over the past three seasons, Davante Adams has had 25 end zone targets, ranking him in a tie for 10th most at the position. We know he can earn valuable looks, but when it comes to Williams’ value, I sweat more WHEN he earns those looks. Here’s a snapshot of the end zone target leaders over that stretch and their average depth on those looks:
- Mike Evans: 38 end zone targets / 12.9 air yards per end zone target
- CeeDee Lamb: 36 end zone targets / 15.2 air yards per end zone target
- Courtland Sutton: 32 end zone targets / 13.9 air yards per end zone target
- Ja’Marr Chase: 31 end zone targets / 9.0 air yards per end zone target
- DK Metcalf: 28 end zone targets / 12.1 air yards per end zone target
- Justin Jefferson: 28 end zone targets / 11.8 air yards per end zone target
- Tyreek Hill: 27 end zone targets / 11.3 air yards per end zone target
- Calvin Ridley: 27 end zone targets / 11.4 air yards per end zone target
- A.J. Brown: 26 end zone targets / 17.2 air yards per end zone target
- Jordan Addison: 25 end zone targets / 16.7 air yards per end zone target
- Davante Adams: 25 end zone targets / 7.0 air yards per end zone target
Williams has been a volume hog in the past, and his new contract would imply that more of the same awaits. If it does, fine, he’s what you expected. If not, we could be looking at a situation where his quality and quantity of touch both decline.
I normally advise against selling low on a player, but if Williams struggles in Week 1 and you can still get borderline Round 2 value for him in a trade (in terms of ADP, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, and Ladd McConkey all go in this range, all of whom I rank higher), I’m taking it!
Christian Kirk Cooks With Volume Of Looks
Christian Kirk is a 28-year-old who has caught at least five touchdown passes in every season in which he’s played 14-plus games and has a 1,100-yard campaign on his resume.
That said, he’s yet to establish himself as the type of star that teams hope to get when spending a second round pick on a receiver and is now on his third different roster, I understand the skepticism surrounding him and the depth at the position, but there are 50-plus receivers going ahead of him and that could be proven unwise in rather short order.
My cheat sheet will be running on Tuesday, and I go through the specifics that make a big Week 1 possible, but the larger point is that Kirk has been used as a YAC monster in his early years with a franchise.
KEEP READING: Should I Draft Christian Kirk? Fantasy Outlook for the Texans WR in 2025
In the past, he’s impressed and seen his route tree expanded, but he’s largely made a good impression with his ability to make magic happen with his hands on the ball, and what better situation could we possibly ask for?
Houston has major question marks at the running back position, and outside of Nico Collins and Kirk, the Texans are going to look to develop their WRs on the fly. Last year wasn’t great, but the Rookie of the Year season isn’t ancient history, and a pocket-oriented signal-caller is more likely to load up a short-yardage weapon like Kirk with targets.
If Kirk cooks in Week 1, what’s going to stop him from continuing? His production reduces the opportunity count for WRs Jayden Higgins or Jaylin Noel, and it’s not as if the upcoming schedule worries me.
- Week 2 vs. Buccaneers
- Week 3 at Jaguars
Even better? The Cardinals and Raiders await in Weeks 15-16. There’s a very clear path to Kirk producing a profit this season, and I’d be willing to buy in after a big Week 1 if you don’t have the option of acting on this now (67.6% undrafted in PFSN user drafts up to this point).
Don’t Forget Xavier Legette
Rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan is the shiny toy in the offense and figures to outearn all other pass catchers in a big way, but why can’t this offense support two pass catchers?
We are looking at a team likely to be in a passing game script with regularity, and the Bryce Young growth down the stretch of last season can’t be ignored — the only player to post a 100 passer rating with zero interceptions in Weeks 16, 17, and 18 last season.
WR Jalen Coker was placed on IR due to a practice injury, and I’m not exactly sweating Hunter Renfrow coming back to the team to earn targets in a meaningful way.
#Panthers WR Xavier Legette is poised for a Year 2 breakout, teammate Jaycee Horn told me on a recent camp visit to Carolina:
“He’s got the ability to separate. Reminds me a lot of A.J. Brown, how tough he is at the top of his routes and how fast he is at his size. Even when… pic.twitter.com/kytshZjr11
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) August 20, 2025
Every receiver that averaged seven-plus targets per game last season scored over 10.5 PPR points a season ago.
Legette isn’t a lock to get there, but he’s got a real chance, and we could see him flash some of that potential in Week 1 against a Jags defense that allowed multiple WRs to clear 14 points in four games last season.
The Titans are a Buy-Low after a Denver No-Show
The depth of the position has none of us wanting to bet on 2025 first-overall pick QB Cam Ward this season, and I think that’s right. That said, there is no denying that the introduction of a new QB introduces upside to this offense that simply wasn’t possible 12 months ago.
Few teams are going to crack the code to this Broncos defense — the Titans just get the poor luck of opening the season with one of the NFL’s finest. Tennessee is expected to score 16-17 points in Week 1, and if that’s close to accurate, fantasy points are going to be difficult to come by. Stay the course.
MORE: Should I Draft Cam Ward? Fantasy Outlook for the Titans QB in 2025
RB Tony Pollard, assuming health, will remain the unquestioned bellcow, and WR Calvin Ridley could rank top-10 in target share this season, a role that can only gain in value as the quality of looks increases.
Neither Pollard nor Ridley was consistently drafted inside the top-25 at their respective positions, and I expect the general consensus is that they will fall outside the top-30 after Week 1.
That’s too low for players with this sort of role, even if you’re not high on the talent. If you believe in the talent (and I do), we are talking about a low-risk, big-win sort of trade target following the opener.
