The Jacksonville Jaguars wanted out of the Christian Kirk business this spring and shipped him to the Houston Texans for only a 2026 seventh-round pick.
Do they know something that we don’t, or is the veteran wide receiver poised to remind us of how productive he can be in an offense that is signaling in a positive direction?
Should You Draft Christian Kirk in Fantasy?
During his three seasons with the Jags, Kirk earned 7.2 targets per game and saw his yards per catch increase yearly. He hauled in 84 balls for 1,108 yards and eight scores in 2022, and based on his early impressions of his new quarterback, a stat line like that seems at least within the range of outcomes for 2025.
New #Texans WR Christian Kirk on his new QB C.J. Stroud via @SiriusXMNFL
“The thing that sticks out about CJ is that he is super mild mannered but he has a lot of confidence and he’s smart, he sees things well. He is a really good communicator and I think at that position… pic.twitter.com/WrXXaC0kuw
— Jacob (@TexansJacob) June 17, 2025
Kirk isn’t being considered a top-50 pick at the position. The market skepticism does open up a buying window without much risk, but the downside does need to be considered before pulling the trigger.
Kirk has two profile flaws: (1) depth chart and (2) opportunity cost.
The Texans invested two top-80 overall draft picks on the WR position even after acquiring Kirk for peanuts (Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Smith in the third), leading me to believe that they are at least a little nervous about a 28-year-old who has missed 14 games over the past two seasons.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Nico Collins is the clear-cut target monster in this offense, and on an offense that should be able to move the ball on the ground, the passing game scraps can only be spread so thin. Dalton Schultz isn’t a game-changer at the TE position, but he’s good for 4-6 weekly targets, which adds further risk to the target potential for all non-Collins receivers in this offense.
The opportunity cost is interesting. On one hand, he’s pretty clearly the most proven player in his Round 11-13 range, but is that what you want on your bench?
Maybe it is. It largely depends on your build. Kirk’s stable profile should be appealing if you took some risks in the first half of your draft (think DK Metcalf, Tetairoa McMillan, and George Pickens types).
If you opted for more stable, lineup lock types early on, I’d be more tempted to lean toward unproven commodities at this point in the draft. Luther Burden III, Kyle Williams, Marvin Mims Jr., and Jalen McMillan are all young receivers with upside under center, fliers that carry a much wider range of outcomes than Kirk in 2025.
At his current price, Kirk isn’t a fade. That doesn’t mean he’s a target, but I don’t find it overly likely that you’ll lose in a meaningful way if you draft him at cost. I’m going to have a strong Week 1 projection on him, and if that comes through, his value could see a nice bump in early September and give you some options in the trade market to consider.
Mason LeBeau’s Christian Kirk Fantasy Projection
Everyone seems to have forgotten about Christian Kirk, and that makes him an excellent value right now. Understandably, he hasn’t had a good season over the past two years through injury and the Jaguars’ offense falling off a cliff. However, I have a lot more faith in the Texans this year, and at his best, he was capable of being the WR1 and handling 133 targets, 84 receptions, 1,100 yards, and eight touchdowns. Could you imagine getting even 80% of that production for your last-round pick?
Of course, Kirk won’t be a WR1 in Houston, and he has a pair of exciting young rookies tailing him. As things stand now, Kirk is the second target behind Nico Collins, but is still ahead of Jayden Higgins. I believe that’s because Kirk is still plenty good at just 28 years old. Even if Higgins starts to emerge, Kirk should hold onto his role until he gives it up.Â
This is a Texans offense that will likely have to pass a lot, but they should be able to do so very well behind QB C.J. Stroud. Kirk isn’t flashy, but I think he can be a reliable WR2 for the Texans and your fantasy team to start the season. He also has the upside to possibly remain in that role with a good season. That’s absolutely worth the risk in the 12th-13th round.Â
