Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks.
Fantasy decisions will only get more difficult from here on out, so let’s take a look at our early Week 1 start/sit plays.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFSN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
Start ‘Em Picks for Week 1
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at ATL)
Baker Mayfield steps into Week 1 with the perfect storm of opportunity and matchup. Veteran pass catcher Chris Godwin may be out, but the wide receiver room is plenty strong with Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka.
Atlanta’s defense remains what it was in 2024: porous. Last season, they allowed quarterbacks 19.6 fantasy points per game and finished in the bottom five in both sacks and pressure rate. Their secondary couldn’t contain average NFL arms, let alone a healthy Mayfield operating indoors at peak level.
Game flow favors volume. The Falcons have offensive talent that will keep this competitive, meaning Mayfield won’t be able to coast in the fourth quarter. Evans should dominate air yards, while Egbuka handles underneath work and TE Cade Otton provides safety-valve targets when pressure arrives.
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Mayfield averaged 22.5 PPR points per game in 2024. In his two games against the Falcons, he posted 23.4 and 24.3 points. Yes, Mayfield’s touchdown rate will come down this season, but that doesn’t mean he won’t still be an every-week QB1 with immense upside in favorable matchups. This is one of those weeks.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (at LAR)
The Houston Texans enter 2025 with a reconstructed but dangerous receiving corps. Behind standout Nico Collins, 2024’s Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are replaced by 2025’s Christian Kirk and Jayden Higgins.
Los Angeles presents the ideal opponent for Stroud’s ceiling game. The Rams surrendered 18-plus fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2024 and showed vulnerability to efficient, accurate passers throughout the season.
Every CJ Stroud TD from ‘24. It’s easy to forget how gifted he is as a passer, but the anticipation he throws with, the tight window throws, and his ability to maneuver in the pocket are special. Can’t wait to see what he does in ‘25 with more weapons +hopefully better protection pic.twitter.com/Xd2p9CDgCb
— Daniel Salib (@salibdaniel1) August 20, 2025
Stroud finished 2024 averaging a very dismal 13.7 fantasy points per game. However, there’s reason to expect improvement this season. With RB Joe Mixon out and the offensive line one of the worst in the league, the Texans will want to establish their aerial attack early.
Expect aggressive play calls and Stroud pushing the ball downfield. We should see a Stroud who performs closer to the guy we saw as a rookie, who averaged 18.7 PPG. That gets started in Week 1.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals (at NO)
James Conner enters Week 1 as Arizona’s undisputed workhorse. Trey Benson is more secure as the team’s RB2, but this is going to be the “Conner Show” early on. The veteran averaged 15.9 PPR points per game in 2024 and brings reliable production to a Cardinals offense that will lean heavily on the ground game.
New Orleans presents a dream matchup. The Saints allowed 24-plus fantasy points per game to running backs last season and rank among the worst run defenses in football. Their front seven underwent significant changes, and with Spencer Rattler starting at quarterback, the game flow should favor Arizona, controlling possession through Conner.
James Conner was charted with 10+ yards after contact gained on 19 separate runs in 2024. He led the NFL in this metric in 2023 as well!
According to the @FantasyPtsData Suite, Conner tied Derrick Henry for the NFL lead in missed tackles forced (68) as a rusher.
James Conner… pic.twitter.com/QlvixmzpGL
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 24, 2025
The Cardinals had a 56% positive game script run rate last season (leading by seven-plus), the seventh-highest in the league. In a game they should lead throughout, we should see a whole lot of Conner.
The Cardinals’ offensive line looked sharp in preseason, creating running lanes and extending drives. Conner could see 18-22 touches, dominate goal-line work, and absorb targets in the passing game when Arizona needs to move the chains.
His combination of power and receiving ability makes him a great option against a Saints defense that couldn’t stop anyone last year. Conner is a borderline RB1 this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (vs. LV)
The Patriots’ backfield is no longer the “Rhamondre Stevenson Show” — rookie TreVeyon Henderson will be plenty involved. However, early in the season, the rookie must “earn his stripes.” Stevenson will start and should handle the between-the-tackles work and goal-line carries.
The Las Vegas Raiders’ defense was average last season but projects to be one of the weaker ones this year.
Drake Maye’s athleticism and mobility should help open up lanes for both backs. Fantasy managers know to start Henderson, who I have ranked inside the top 20 for Week 1. But Stevenson is already being viewed as an afterthought. I would say not just yet.
Even in a committee, Stevenson offers RB2 floor with RB1 upside if he finds the end zone. The matchup is too good to fade. Start Stevenson with confidence.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers (at JAX)
Tetairoa McMillan immediately steps in as the Carolina Panthers’ WR1, even as a rookie in his first professional regular-season game. Jacksonville’s secondary was among the worst in football in 2024, allowing explosive plays and ranking in the bottom five in points allowed to wide receivers.
The rookie brings size and contested-catch ability that Jacksonville’s corners can’t match. The Jags struggled specifically with physical outside receivers, making McMillan’s skill set a perfect fit for exploitation. Carolina will need to keep pace with Jacksonville’s offense, leading to pass-heavy scripts and plenty of opportunities.
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QB Bryce Young showed strong chemistry with McMillan during the preseason, particularly in red zone situations where McMillan’s 6’4″ frame becomes a massive advantage. The Panthers lack proven depth at receiver, meaning volume should flow naturally toward their most talented players.
McMillan offers legitimate breakout potential in Week 1. Expect six-to-eight targets, multiple red zone looks, and the kind of ceiling game that makes rookie receivers fantasy legends. He’s a strong WR2 play with WR1 upside.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers (at SEA)
The San Francisco 49ers’ Week 1 receiving corps looks much different this year. Deebo Samuel Sr. is in Washington, Brandon Aiyuk is on the PUP list, and we have no idea when Jauan Jennings will return to the field.
TE George Kittle is still Brock Purdy’s main guy, but Ricky Pearsall is the current WR1.
Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall in an early rhythm
Watch on @NFLNetwork
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/zHvpDMNbi5— NFL (@NFL) August 16, 2025
Seattle’s secondary was vulnerable to receivers working intermediate routes, allowing over 33 fantasy points per game to the position.
Pearsall’s route-running precision fits perfectly with Purdy’s quick-release style. The Seahawks struggle most with motion and pre-snap movement, exactly what San Francisco does best with their receivers. Expect Pearsall to see designed touches, comeback routes, and opportunities after the catch where his athleticism creates extra yardage.
The 49ers will likely control this game, but Seattle’s offense is competent enough to keep San Francisco throwing throughout. Pearsall’s role has expanded significantly with Aiyuk unavailable, and HC Kyle Shanahan’s system has historically produced breakout performances from players far less talented than Pearsall.
This is a high-ceiling WR3/flex play in a system that maximizes talent. Pearsall should threaten five-to-seven targets with multiple explosive-play opportunities.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns (vs. CIN)
David Njoku remains Cleveland’s primary tight end despite the team drafting Harold Fannin Jr. earlier this year. Joe Flacco’s gunslinger mentality favors a high-volume passing attack. Njoku averaged 13.5 PPR points per game in 2024. Cincinnati’s defense was historically bad against tight ends, allowing the most fantasy points in the league to the position.
The Bengals’ linebacker coverage remains a glaring weakness, particularly against athletic tight ends who can threaten the seam. Njoku should run a route on at least two-thirds of Flacco’s pass attempts, giving him plenty of chances at earning targets.
The game script favors passing volume, and Cincinnati’s offense can move the ball, meaning Cleveland will need to keep pace through the air rather than grinding out the clock. This creates additional opportunities for Njoku in a game where Flacco may push 40 attempts.
DAVID NJOKU YAC 😳
📺: #CHIvsCLE on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kw7mays4qU pic.twitter.com/KJROYbWQkz— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023
Njoku offers a high floor with a legitimate ceiling. Bank on six-to-eight targets, red zone equity, and a strong chance at double-digit fantasy points. He’s a must-start TE1 in a matchup that couldn’t be more favorable for his skill set and usage patterns.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. CAR)
Brenton Strange enters Week 1 as Jacksonville’s starting tight end with Evan Engram now in Denver. Carolina’s defense was bottom-five against tight ends in 2024, routinely allowing big performances to athletic pass-catchers who could exploit their linebacker coverage.
Trevor Lawrence has shown consistent trust in his tight ends, particularly in short-yardage and red zone situations where Strange’s size creates mismatches. The Panthers’ defensive scheme leaves the middle of the field vulnerable, exactly where Strange operates most effectively.
Jacksonville should move the ball efficiently against Carolina’s porous defense, creating multiple scoring opportunities and extended drives. Strange will benefit from increased snaps and should see consistent targets as Lawrence’s safety valve when downfield options are covered.
This is the premium streaming option at tight end for Week 1. Strange offers five-to-seven target upside with legitimate red zone equity in a game where Jacksonville should control offensive tempo. He’s a high TE2 play for now, but we could be looking at Strange as an every-week back-end TE1 by the end of the month.
Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 1
Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets (vs. PIT)
It’s a Week 1 revenge game for new Jets QB Justin Fields. Unfortunately, even if he is able to serve up a nice, cold dish, the fantasy upside may not follow. He faces a nightmare scenario in Week 1 — Pittsburgh’s defense features the menace that is EDGE T.J. Watt, and held quarterbacks to just 15.5 fantasy points per game in 2024, the sixth-fewest in the league.
The Jets’ offensive line changed, but hasn’t yet proven the cohesion needed to protect against Pittsburgh’s aggressive schemes. Fields’ tendency to hold the ball too long and his inconsistency reading complex coverages make this matchup particularly concerning for fantasy purposes.
While Fields offers rushing upside that can salvage poor passing performances, Pittsburgh’s linebackers are disciplined enough to limit big gains on the ground. The Steelers’ game plan will focus on forcing Fields into difficult throws under pressure, which is exactly where his accuracy breaks down.
This is a clear fade spot for fantasy managers. The matchup caps Fields’ ceiling, and his floor is dangerously low against a defense designed to create turnovers and negative plays. Stream a safer option with a more favorable defensive opponent and save Fields for better matchups down the road.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. KC)
Justin Herbert’s talent isn’t in question, but this matchup presents too many red flags to ignore. Kansas City’s defense allowed just 17.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2024, finishing as one of the better units in the league.
The Los Angeles Chargers’ receiving corps lacks a true playmaker beyond WR Ladd McConkey. Veteran receiver Keenan Allen may be back, but at 33 years old, he is nothing more than a checkdown option at this point.
Kansas City’s defensive scheme focuses on eliminating big plays and forcing quarterbacks into underneath throws and short completions. Herbert’s fantasy value comes from explosive plays and red zone efficiency, both of which will be severely limited by the Chiefs’ coverage concepts and pass-rush.
Herbert posted games of 11.2 and 13.7 fantasy points in his two games against the Chiefs last season. There will be weeks where Herbert has elite upside, but this is not one of them.
Javonte Williams & Miles Sanders, RBs, Dallas Cowboys (at PHI)
The Cowboys’ backfield is a committee nightmare featuring Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders sharing touches with no clear hierarchy. Philadelphia’s defense was elite against running backs in 2024, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position and surrendering the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the league.
Both Williams and Sanders profile as low-volume players in a difficult matchup against a defensive front that specializes in stopping the run. The Eagles’ linebacker corps is healthy and aggressive, creating the exact kind of environment where running backs struggle to find consistent yardage.
The reality is the Cowboys have the worst running back room in the NFL and are poised to be extremely pass-heavy in 2025. Against an explosive Eagles offense, they may be forced into a negative game script early.
This is a clear avoidance spot. Both players lack the volume needed to overcome a brutal matchup, and their touchdown equity is minimal against Philadelphia’s stingy defense. Instead of chasing committee players in difficult spots, find running backs with clearer roles and more favorable defensive opponents.
Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (at NYJ)
The Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson to replace Najee Harris. While we did see Harris earn elite volume as a rookie, he was also a first-round pick. Johnson was selected in the third round. Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith are the type of coaches who make their rookies “earn their stripes.”
Fantasy managers who drafted Johnson should absolutely not feel bad about it. He should be their RB1 of the future and will take over as the lead runner eventually. But in Week 1, this all sets up for Johnson to be a spectacular bust.
The Jets allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points per game to running backs last season. This will be a low-scoring, slow-paced game, which makes it harder to project Johnson to find the end zone. Most importantly, the Steelers are going to start Jaylen Warren as their main back with Kenneth Gainwell mixing in on passing downs.
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Do not expect any meaningful volume from Johnson in his first NFL game. He will have to earn that as the season progresses.
New York’s defensive front specializes in stopping interior running plays, exactly what Johnson would see in his limited opportunities. The Jets’ linebacker corps is among the best in football at limiting explosive runs and creating negative plays.
Johnson is a clear bench stash until he establishes a meaningful role in Pittsburgh’s offense. This matchup offers no upside and significant downside risk for fantasy managers desperate for running back production. Wait for better opportunities and more defined usage patterns.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Seattle Seahawks (vs. SF)
Heading into Week 1, Cooper Kupp still has the potential to surprise people. He might be done — I think he’s done — but we won’t know for sure until we see him play. As the owner of the greatest fantasy receiver season of all time in 2021, Kupp still carries that pedigree with managers hoping he can recapture some past glory.
Kupp returns from injury but faces a brutal matchup against San Francisco’s secondary. The 49ers allowed just 31 fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2024, the seventh-fewest in the league. They possess the athletic corners and scheme complexity to limit underneath routes where Kupp operates most effectively.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the clear WR1 and top target-earner for the Seahawks. Perhaps Kupp will push “JSN” outside, but the third-year man is a far superior slot option at this point in their respective careers.
San Francisco will try and control this game defensively, limiting Seattle’s offensive possessions and forcing the Seahawks into difficult down-and-distance situations. Kupp’s effectiveness depends on volume and rhythm, both of which will be limited by the 49ers’ approach.
This is a matchup-based fade for a player whose ceiling is significantly capped by the opponent. Kupp displayed an incredibly low floor last season and is the type of player who could be on waivers by midseason. Find receiver options facing weaker secondaries.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (vs. MIA)
Josh Downs is a talented player, but his offensive environment makes him very susceptible to being impacted by his quarterback and the matchup.
Miami’s secondary was much improved after its midseason turnaround in 2024, particularly in limiting slot receivers and underneath routes. The Dolphins’ defensive scheme focuses on taking away short completions and forcing offenses into longer-developing plays. In 2024, they allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
The Colts’ quarterback situation remains a problem. While Daniel Jones is better for his pass-catchers than Anthony Richardson Sr. would be, he’s not exactly a starting-caliber passer.
This should be a game where the Colts lean on RB Jonathan Taylor, feeding him 20-plus carries in an effort to control the game and limit the potential for an explosive Dolphins offense to force them into a negative game script.
While the Colts ran 11-personnel 70% of the time last season, that still presents 30% of the snaps where Downs won’t be on the field. Plus, it’s not as if the Colts are going to throw the ball out of three receiver sets every time.
This is a clear fade spot for a receiver whose role and matchup both present significant challenges. Downs offers a limited ceiling in a game where the Colts may struggle to sustain drives through the air. Wait for more favorable matchups and clearer usage patterns.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (at NYJ)
Jonnu Smith’s ascendance last season felt more situational than his talent dictating opportunities. The Dolphins needed to get the ball out of QB Tua Tagovailoa’s hands quickly, and Smith provided that underneath target.
Now in Pittsburgh, Smith finds himself in a low-volume passing attack with a slow quarterback. He is also not the clear TE1, competing for snaps with Pat Freiermuth and, to a lesser extent, Darnell Washington.
The Jets allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends last season. Their linebacker coverage remains elite at eliminating underneath routes.
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Pittsburgh’s offensive approach will likely emphasize running the ball and short passes to receivers rather than feeding tight ends in a hostile environment. Smith lacks the target share needed to overcome such a brutal matchup, and his role isn’t significant enough to guarantee meaningful opportunities.
The Jets’ defensive scheme specifically targets tight ends with physical coverage and eliminates the seam routes where Smith operates most effectively. New York’s secondary depth allows them to bracket tight ends without sacrificing coverage elsewhere.
Smith is an obvious fade in all formats. His combination of a limited role and a horrific matchup creates a scenario where even his ceiling is unacceptably low for fantasy purposes. Stream any tight end facing a more favorable defense rather than chasing hope in what should be an ugly, low-scoring, slow-paced contest.
Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders (vs. NYG)
Zach Ertz enters 2025 as a depth piece behind younger options on Washington’s depth chart. The Giants’ defense was excellent against tight ends in 2024, allowing just 9.3 fantasy points per game to the position, fourth-fewest in the league.
Washington’s offensive evolution focuses on developing younger players, meaning Ertz’s snaps and targets will be limited to specific packages rather than consistent usage. He only saw a 69.5% snap share in 2024.
Ertz’s physical decline is evident. Look for QB Jayden Daniels to focus more on targeting Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel Sr. than his slow, plodding tight end.
New York’s linebacker corps excels at covering tight ends in both man and zone coverage, eliminating the short routes where Ertz operates exclusively. The Giants’ defensive scheme creates the exact kind of coverage problems that aging tight ends can’t overcome.
Ertz offers no upside in this matchup and role combination. His floor is essentially zero, and his ceiling barely reaches the level needed for roster consideration. This is an automatic fade for a player whose fantasy relevance is on life support.
