The fantasy football community is finally waking up to what should have been obvious all along about George Kittle. With unrest among San Francisco pass catchers, PFSN Trade Analyzer user trade patterns around Kittle have almost done a full flip. In June, the tight end was traded away in 60.7% of deals that included him, but in July, his trade-for rate sits at 57.1%. Smart fantasy managers are recognizing that Kittle isn’t just a solid tight end option. He’s the perfect storm of opportunity, talent, and value heading into 2025.
The Elite Production That Never Left
Let’s establish what we’re dealing with here: Kittle isn’t just good. He’s historically elite. Kittle has four straight seasons with at least 60 grabs and six receiving touchdowns. Not only is he the only tight end with more than two such seasons over that stretch, he’s one of just six players to check both of those boxes in all four of those years, joining a list of future Hall of Famers that includes Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja’Marr Chase.
That’s not tight end company. That’s wide receiver royalty, and Kittle belongs in that conversation. Despite being on the wrong side of 30, Kittle finished as the TE2 in PPR scoring in 2024 thanks to 78 catches, 1,106 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. His 2.62 yards per route run led all tight ends and ranked third overall among all players.
The December Domination Nobody Talks About
Since 2021, only three players have at least five games with 120+ receiving yards in December, when fantasy managers are counting on them the most: Justin Jefferson (seven), Tee Higgins (five), and Kittle (five). For reference, Kittle has as many such games over that stretch as Ja’Marr Chase (three) and A.J. Brown (two) combined.
December games with 120+ yards for Kittle include his monster performances: 151 yards against Chicago in 2024, 126 yards versus Baltimore in 2023, and 120 yards against Washington in 2022. When fantasy championships are on the line, Kittle consistently delivers elite production that rivals the best wide receivers in the league.
The Target Share Explosion Coming
Here’s where things get really interesting for 2025. Kittle has played 13 games without Deebo Samuel since 2019, and averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game over that span. He has also played 12 games without Brandon Aiyuk since 2020, and averaged 14.6 PPR points over that span. Since 2022, Kittle has averaged nearly 84 yards per game and 20 fantasy points per game in six games without Samuel in the lineup.
The sample size gets even better when you look at games without either receiver. In seven games without either Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel since 2021, Kittle averaged 7.9 targets per game (which would rank around WR15), 107.1 receiving yards per game, and 16.6 PPR points per game. That’s elite WR1 production from the tight end position.
Imagine your joy in any of the last four years if given the chance to start George Kittle in fantasy football land with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk both out of the lineup. Well, that’s exactly what 2025 could look like. Historic opportunity.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 12, 2025Â
Now Samuel is in Washington, and Aiyuk is recovering from torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus injuries that will likely keep him out for the start of the season, possibly the entire first half. The 49ers are projected to enter the season with Jauan Jennings and rookie Ricky Pearsall as their top two receivers.
The Perfect Storm Situation
The 49ers offense is facing a massive transition. Jennings had a breakout season in 2024, recording career highs with 77 receptions for 975 yards and six touchdowns. But he’s more suited for the slot and isn’t a deep threat. Pearsall showed flashes as a rookie, particularly in Week 17 against Detroit where he caught eight passes for 141 yards, but he’s still developing and dealing with offseason hamstring issues.
Christian McCaffrey is healthy for now, but there’s no guarantee he stays that way given his injury history over recent seasons. When the 49ers’ offensive weapons are limited, Kittle becomes Brock Purdy’s most reliable target. The quarterback recently began training with Kittle in Nashville, showing their continued commitment to building chemistry.
The Elite Pedigree You’re Forgetting
Remember what Kittle accomplished during his peak years from 2018-2020? In 2018, he caught 88 passes for 1,377 yards and 5 touchdowns. In 2019, he managed 85 catches for 1,053 yards and 5 touchdowns in just 14 games. Even in the injury-shortened 2020 season, he posted 48 receptions for 634 yards and 2 touchdowns in only 8 games.
Those weren’t just good tight end seasons. Those were elite fantasy seasons that rivaled top wide receivers.
The Value Proposition That Makes Perfect Sense
Here’s the beautiful part about Kittle’s current situation: he’s being valued closer to where he should be, but still offers elite upside that other tight ends in his range don’t possess. Kittle is currently being drafted around overall pick 33, making him the TE3 behind Brock Bowers (pick 14) and Trey McBride (pick 21).
The gap between Kittle and McBride is significant in draft capital, but minimal in production ceiling. Paying premium prices for tight ends like Bowers and McBride usually isn’t worth it, but Kittle represents the sweet spot of elite upside at a more reasonable cost. He provides a legitimate edge at the position that players like T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, and Mark Andrews don’t offer given their situations and recent production trends.
The Binary Choice Strategy
The tight end position in 2025 presents a clear binary choice: either get Kittle around pick 33, or wait until the double-digit rounds and grab one of the replacement-level options. The middle tier of tight ends (picks 50-80) offers minimal upside and questionable floors.
Kittle is the ideal target because he has legitimate league-winning upside if the target share explosion materializes, while still providing a safe floor due to his connection with Purdy and role in the offense. Although Kittle is an elite blocker, he may be needed more as a receiver in 2025 given the 49ers’ lack of proven receiving options.
Fantasy managers are recognizing what the data has been screaming: Kittle in a depleted 49ers offense is a recipe for massive target volume and elite production. His historical performance without Samuel and Aiyuk, combined with his elite pedigree from 2018-2020, suggests we could see vintage Kittle in 2025.
The trade-for rate spike to 57.1% shows that smart money is moving toward Kittle, but he’s still available at a reasonable price compared to the premium tight ends. Either draft Kittle and get a potential league-winner, or save your capital and stream the position. The middle ground offers no value.
When December arrives and fantasy championships are on the line, you’ll want the tight end who has five games of 120+ receiving yards since 2021. You’ll want George Kittle.
