Optimism is everywhere at this time of the NFL calendar. No regular-season games have been played, and every team is 0-0.
For some clubs, those rose-colored glasses are actually warranted. Today, we’re identifying five NFL offenses on track to significantly improve during the 2024 season.
All of these offenses struggled in some way, shape, or form in 2023 but now appear poised to make a leap. As we looked around the league, we searched for offenses that finished in the bottom half of FTN’s offensive DVOA last year but are realistic candidates to rank in the top 10 in 2024.
Let’s kick it off with an AFC East franchise that will experience a more obvious quarterback upgrade than any club in the league.
Which NFL Offenses Will Improve in 2024?
New York Jets
- Play-caller: Nathaniel Hackett
- New additions: WR Mike Williams, WR Malachi Corley, OT Tyron Smith, OT Morgan Moses, G John Simpson
- 2023 stats: 29th in scoring (15.8 ppg), 32nd in EPA per play, 32nd in DVOA
The Jets somehow scored more points than the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, and New York Giants in 2023 despite rolling through Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian after Aaron Rodgers’ Week 1 Achilles tear. However, advanced metrics pegged Gang Green’s offense as the NFL’s worst unit.
Rodgers returns this season but remains a mystery box. Is the same player who won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021, the signal-caller who finished 26th in QBR in 2022, or something in the middle? While Rodgers is as talented as nearly any quarterback to play the game, he’s 40 years old and coming off a severe injury.
Hackett almost seems inconsequential since Rodgers is essentially New York’s de facto offensive coordinator. The Jets may lack a schematic edge, but they upgraded Rodgers’ offensive environment this offseason. Williams is a high-end WR2 assuming health, while New York now boasts a top-10 offensive line.
Incumbent running back Breece Hall might be in for a Christian McCaffrey-esque dual-threat campaign. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022 and has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two NFL campaigns despite working with the Jets’ atrocious QB play.
Head coach Robert Saleh had a top-three defense in 2023, and New York projects in the same range again next season. If Rodgers and the Jets’ offense can be a top-15ish unit, New York should breeze into the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons
- Play-caller: Zac Robinson
- New additions: QB Kirk Cousins, QB Michael Penix Jr., WR Darnell Mooney
- 2023 stats: 26th in scoring (18.9 ppg), 27th in EPA per play, 24th in DVOA
The Falcons have all the offensive pieces in place heading into the 2024 campaign — can they deliver?
Robinson offers one of the NFL’s most unique resumes, with stints as an NFL quarterback, a Pro Football Focus analyst, and the Los Angeles Rams’ QB coach on his CV. Other recent branches from the Sean McVay coaching tree — including head coaches Mike McDaniel, Zac Taylor, and Kevin O’Connell — have experienced success.
Cousins spent the last two seasons with O’Connell in Minnesota, so the veteran won’t have much of a learning curve as he adapts to Robinson’s scheme. While the surprise Penix selection was a hiccup in Cousins’ Atlanta tenure, the 36-year-old is set up to thrive in his new NFL home.
Cousins, who was in the midst of a career season before tearing his Achilles last October, will have Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts at his disposal in 2024. All three are former first-round picks who have flashed — or, in some cases, more than flashed — at the NFL level.
Cousins represents a massive improvement over 2023 Atlanta quarterbacks Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, and Atlanta should also benefit from natural regression, especially in scoring range.
According to TruMedia, the Falcons scored a touchdown on only 48.1% of their goal-to-go situations last year, the worst rate in the league. The average NFL team found the end zone in 71.5% of those situations; the Packers led the league at 95%, the best mark since at least 2000.
Chicago Bears
- Play-caller: Shane Waldron
- New additions: QB Caleb Williams, RB D’Andre Swift, WR Rome Odunze, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett, C Ryan Bates
- 2023 stats: 29th in scoring (15.8 ppg), 21st in EPA per play, 22nd in DVOA
Bears fans are pinning their hopes on Williams, and for good reason. The former Heisman winner was considered a generational prospect and looked more than NFL-ready during the preseason.
Williams got off to a slow start against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2 before making arguably the throw of the preseason. After dropping back near midfield, Williams spun left to evade pressure, then threw on the run, dropping a 45-yard gem into Odunze’s arms.
CALEB WILLIAMS TO ROME ODUNZE 🤯pic.twitter.com/KJx5kreq4Y
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
Most No. 1 overall QBs land in dreadful offensive environments — not Williams. The Bears already had DJ Moore — who had a career year in 2023 and ranked ninth among WRs in yards per route run — on their roster before trading for Allen and drafting Odunze over the offseason.
Reports on Allen’s weight are worrisome, but he was 10th in YPRR last season. Even if he’s a slot-only player only on the field in 11 personnel, Allen can be productive. And Odunze already appears seasoned enough to handle a full-time role in his rookie campaign.
Swift and the underrated Khalil Herbert should be a formidable RB tandem, while Everett and fellow TE Cole Kmet give Chicago the option to use heavier packages. That’s something Waldron liked to do as the Seattle Seahawks’ OC, but the Bears might not want to take any of their talented wide receivers off the field.
Arizona Cardinals
- Play-caller: Drew Petzing
- New additions: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., RB Trey Benson
- 2023 stats: 24th in scoring (19.4 ppg), 22nd in EPA per play, 21st in DVOA
The best thing about projecting the 2024 Cardinals to be productive? It’s not even really a projection.
Arizona went 1-8 with Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune under center last season. However, the club immediately improved after quarterback Kyler Murray (ACL) returned in November, ranking ninth in offensive EPA per play from Week 10 onward, per TruMedia.
Murray developed an instant connection with TE Trey McBride, while his gravity as a rushing threat helped James Conner and Co. The Cards were 13th in rushing EPA without Murray on the field; they were second with him playing.
Now, let’s take all that promise in the desert and drop in a generational wide receiver prospect in Harrison, who figures to be an alpha WR1 from the get-go. Fellow WR Michael Wilson made PFN’s All-Breakout Team, while slot weapon Greg Dortch continues to turn heads at camp.
Petzing, who should’ve received head-coaching interviews this offseason, leaned into multiple TE sets in 2023, running 12/13 personnel at the NFL’s fourth-highest rate (34.2%). McBride and third-round rookie Tip Reiman will let Petzing continue with those heavy packages, but Arizona’s OC also has the weapons to deploy more 3-WR formations.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Play-caller: HC Doug Pederson or OC Press Taylor
- New additions: WR Brian Thomas Jr., WR Gabe Davis, C Mitch Morse
- 2023 stats: 14th in scoring (22.2 ppg), 19th in EPA per play, 18th in DVOA
Injuries and miscues. Those were the Jaguars’ two primary offensive concerns in 2023 when they dropped five of their last six games to lose the AFC South title.
Trevor Lawrence missed his first NFL game in Week 17 but dealt with four separate injuries — knee, ankle, concussion, shoulder — during the season. While Lawrence finished with the exact same QBR (56.1) as in 2022, his interception and sack rates dramatically increased year over year.
Lawrence wasn’t the Jags’ only offensive player who got hurt last season. Wide receiver Christian Kirk missed most of six games after suffering a core muscle injury in Week 13. Multiple injuries sidelined fellow WR Zay Jones, who ultimately missed eight games.
Left tackle Cam Robinson missed eight total games (four due to injury and four due to suspension). Guard Ezra Cleveland, acquired in an October trade, was out for a game after coming over from the Vikings. And OL like Anton Harrison and Brandon Scheffer were frequently banged up.
What about those aforementioned mistakes? Lawrence threw 14 picks and fumbled 12 times, losing seven. His 21 turnovers ranked third in the NFL behind Sam Howell and Josh Allen.
According to TruMedia, only four teams — the Vikings, Patriots, Commanders, and Browns — lost more EPA due to turnovers in 2023 than the Jaguars.
Inside the red zone, Jacksonville ranked just 26th in success rate and 29th in EPA per play.
Lawrence and Co. should rebound if the Jaguars can clean up those errors and stay healthy in 2024. Thomas has shined during training camp, Davis is a useful receiver, and Kirk is a weapon from the slot. Jacksonville still has to decide on its play-caller (our vote is for Pederson), but the Jags’ offense could be on the upswing.
