With two weeks of the 2024 NFL preseason in the books, fanbases around the league have gotten glimpses of their favorite team’s first-round picks in live action.
Most NFL franchises are counting on their Round 1 choices to make a significant immediate impact in 2024, if not as a starter, then as part of a rotation. Clubs that aren’t projecting their first-round selections as instant starters may eventually rely on them later in the season when injuries and fatigue crop up.
Which 2024 first-round picks will make the most meaningful contributions in their rookie campaigns? Let’s rank every choice from 32 to 1.
Ranking Every First-Round NFL Rookie by 2024 Impact
32) J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 draft slot: No. 10
Unfortunately, our rankings start on a dour note. McCarthy will miss his entire rookie season after tearing his meniscus in the Vikings’ preseason opener. Sam Darnold is locked in as Minnesota’s QB1 while McCarthy recovers.
31) Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons
Round 1 draft slot: No. 8
The Falcons surprisingly sat Penix in their second preseason game. Head coach Raheem Morris said Atlanta had seen enough from its first-round quarterback during Week 1.
Given that Penix won’t play in 2024 barring an injury to Kirk Cousins, it seemed odd that the Falcons didn’t want to give their rookie signal-caller every possible exhibition rep.
30) Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 draft slot: No. 31
Pearsall could move up if the 49ers eventually trade fellow WR Brandon Aiyuk. For now, he’s San Francisco’s WR4 behind Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday he’s “hoping” Pearsall (shoulder) will return to practice this week.
29) Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers
Round 1 draft slot: No. 32
Legette returned to Panthers practice last week after missing time with a foot injury. He’s squarely behind Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and Jonathan Mingo on Carolina’s WR depth chart, while he might be trailing Terrace Marshall Jr. in the club’s pecking order.
Legette needs to develop a connection with Bryce Young as the season progresses.
28) Amarius Mims, OT, Cincinnati Bengals
Round 1 draft slot: No. 18
Mims is expected to miss several weeks after straining his pectoral in the Bengals’ first preseason game.
The Georgia product had been in line to grab Cincinnati’s starting right tackle job. Veteran Trent Brown probably has the inside track for RT1 duties at this point, but he has a lengthy injury history.
27) Olu Fashanu, OT, New York Jets
Round 1 draft slot: No. 11
Good on the Jets for drafting a contingency plan. Fashanu is currently New York’s swing tackle but is almost certain to see snaps behind veteran starters Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. Both tackles are 33 years old.
Smith hasn’t completed a full slate of games since 2015; Moses, typically an iron man, missed three games with a shoulder injury in 2023.
26) Darius Robinson, EDGE, Arizona Cardinals
Round 1 draft slot: No. 27
Few teams needed more pass-rushing help than the Cardinals, who finished 30th in sacks and 31st in pressure rate last season. Free agent additions Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols are listed as Arizona’s starting defensive ends.
Still, head coach Jonathan Gannon said Robinson “1,000%” can earn a starting role before Week 1.
25) Dallas Turner, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 draft slot: No. 17
While Turner is behind free agent additions Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, he should have plenty of opportunities to rush the passer in Brian Flores’ Vikings defense.
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Turner has already flashed with multiple preseason pressures and a sack. He dropped into coverage on roughly a quarter of his snaps at Alabama in 2023 and should be a flexible weapon for Minnesota.
24) Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Round 1 draft slot: No. 13
With Bowers and 2023 second-round pick Michael Mayer on their roster, the Raiders should lead the NFL in two-TE sets next season.
Per TruMedia, just one team this century — the 2021 Miami Dolphins — played more than half of its offensive snaps in 12 personnel (61.6%). Las Vegas could beat that mark this year.
23) Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
Round 1 draft slot: No. 3
Although veteran Jacoby Brissett still seems likely to open 2024 as the Patriots’ starting QB, Maye should receive reps at some point this season. The North Carolina alum appeared far calmer in the pocket in preseason Week 2 than in the opener.
Maye layered several throws over defenders to find his intended receiver, threw a gorgeous vertical shot that rookie Javon Baker couldn’t haul in, and showed off his mobility with 15 rushing yards and a score on a zone read near the goal line.
22) Jordan Morgan, G, Green Bay Packers
Round 1 draft slot: No. 25
Morgan played solely left tackle at Arizona but was cross-trained at every position except center during Green Bay’s offseason program.
With the regular season on the horizon, Morgan looks locked in as the Packers’ starting right guard. Few NFL teams identify, draft, and develop offensive linemen more successfully than Green Bay.
21) Chop Robinson, EDGE, Miami Dolphins
Round 1 draft slot: No. 21
While the Dolphins recently welcomed Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) back to practice, fellow pass rusher Bradley Chubb (ACL) remains on the PUP list. Miami, which watched offseason signing Shaquil Barrett retire without playing a snap, will immediately throw Robinson into the starting mix.
The ex-Penn Stater ranked 14th in pass-rush win rate among NCAA edge defenders in 2023 while facing stiff Big Ten offensive line competition.
20) Terrion Arnold, CB, Detroit Lions
Round 1 draft slot: No. 24
Arnold would’ve ranked higher before suffering a pectoral injury on Monday. While Lions head coach Dan Campbell said Arnold would return to practice next week, DC Aaron Glenn was non-committal when asked whether the Alabama product would start in Week 1.
Arnold should be an ideal fit for Glenn’s man-heavy plan whenever he gets on the field.
19) Jared Verse, EDGE, Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 draft slot: No. 19
The Rams have no hope of replacing retired future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald with an individual player. But Verse, who put up 18 sacks and 29.5 tackles for loss over two years at Florida State, will bring an edgy demeanor to L.A.’s defense.
Pro Football Network Draft Analyst Ian Cummings called Verse a “bolt of lightning off the snap” and a “high-octane, hyperactive athlete” in his pre-draft scouting report.
18) Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 draft slot: No. 22
Mitchell is on track to begin the season as the Eagles’ nickel corner, an increasingly valuable position in an NFL where WR1s routinely align in the slot.
New Philadelphia DC Vic Fangio hopes Mitchell can eventually play solely on the perimeter, but the Eagles need another CB — potentially second-rounder Cooper DeJean — to step up inside.
17) Taliese Fuaga, OT, New Orleans Saints
Round 1 draft slot: No. 14
The Saints might field one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines even if Fuaga thrives while transitioning from collegiate right tackle to pro left tackle — and that’s a big “if.”
Pegged as an NFL guard by some draft analysts, Fuaga will need to quickly adjust to the blindside during his rookie campaign. Per PFF, he allowed no pressures on 12 pass-blocking snaps in New Orleans’ preseason opener before sitting out Week 2 with back tightness.
16) JC Latham, OT, Tennessee Titans
Round 1 draft slot: No. 7
Like Fuaga, Latham is moving from right tackle to the blindside. However, the Titans’ new left tackle has two significant advantages.
Latham is being coached by Bill Callahan, one of the top offensive line gurus in NFL history, and plays next to ascending guard Peter Skoronski, Tennessee’s first-round pick in 2023.
15) Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 1 draft slot: No. 23
Almost every report out of Jacksonville suggests that Thomas has looked like a different player during the second half of training camp.
Veteran Jaguars WRs Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis are solid players, but they’re specific types of pass catchers. Thomas has the size and speed to become Trevor Lawrence’s long-term WR1.
14) Troy Fautanu, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 1 draft slot: No. 20
While 2023 first-round Steelers offensive tackle Broderick Jones continues to struggle, Fautanu — Pittsburgh’s Round 1 choice in 2024 — has thrived during his first NFL summer.
Fautanu is recovering from an MCL sprain, but Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that the former Washington Husky is in line to start at right tackle.
13) Nate Wiggins, CB, Baltimore Ravens
Round 1 draft slot: No. 30
Few rookies looked more at home in their NFL debut than Wiggins, who allowed just eight receiving yards on six targets while breaking up three passes.
A minor shoulder injury kept him out of Week 2, but Wiggins’ presence as a perimeter corner will give new Ravens DC Zach Orr flexibility.
With Wiggins installed on the outside, cornerback Marlon Humphrey and safety Kyle Hamilton can split slot responsibilities and keep making plays over the middle of the field.
12) Byron Murphy, DT, Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 draft slot: No. 16
Murphy dominated in Seattle’s first preseason game and should have an instant impact in first-year head coach Mike Macdonald’s defense.
If there’s one coach capable of getting the most out of Murphy, it’s Macdonald, who molded a similar player — Justin Madubuike — into a star with the Baltimore Ravens.
Murphy will likely be on the field for most pass-rushing snaps, while Seahawks veteran Jarran Reed doesn’t present much of an obstacle for early-down work.
11) Graham Barton, C, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 1 draft slot: No. 26
In 2023, the Buccaneers ranked dead last in rushing yards per attempt (3.4) and success rate (32%), and the club’s offensive line was a significant part of the problem. Tampa Bay finished 32nd in run-block win rate. Most of the blame can be cast on the Bucs’ interior, not tackles Tristan Wirfs (elite) or Luke Goedeke (above-average).
Barton should represent a massive upgrade on incumbent center Robert Hainsey. The Duke product played left tackle for the past three seasons but was a collegiate center in 2020. Barton, who scored a perfect 10.0 Relative Athletic Score, could help unlock Tampa Bay’s inside rushing attack.
10) Laiatu Latu, EDGE, Indianapolis Colts
Round 1 draft slot: No. 15
The Colts finished 30th in blitz rate in 2023, and that probably won’t change with DC Gus Bradley returning next season.
Fellow Indianapolis defensive end Samson Ebukam tore his ACL this summer, creating a void opposite Kwity Paye. The Colts will have to give Latu tons of snaps whether they intended to or not. He’s the most physically talented EDGE on Indy’s roster.
9) Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Round 1 draft slot: No. 9
Odunze may begin his Bears career behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. New Chicago OC Shane Waldron used three-WR personnel on 62.4% of Seattle’s plays in 2023, per TruMedia, almost precisely a league-average rate.
Moore won’t come off the field, but Allen is 32 years old and has missed 11 games over the past two seasons. Even if Odunze loses early-season snaps to Allen, he’ll likely overtake the Bears’ trade acquisition by the end of the year.
8) Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Round 1 draft slot: No. 28
According to TruMedia, just 12.2% of Patrick Mahomes’ attempts went for 16+ yards in 2023. Mahomes finished 22nd in explosive play rate, ranking only slightly better than Russell Wilson. Mahomes’ 6.8-yard average depth of target was second-worst in the NFL; only Bengals backup QB Jake Browning aimed at nearer targets on average.
Worthy, who ran a Combine record 4.21-second 40-yard dash in March, should allow Mahomes to take more vertical shots. Veteran Chiefs receiver Hollywood Brown may not be ready for Week 1 after dislocating his sternoclavicular joint, leaving Worthy as a clear starter alongside Rashee Rice.
7) Joe Alt, OT, Los Angeles Chargers
Round 1 draft slot: No. 5
The Chargers’ roster doesn’t have many strengths outside of Justin Herbert, but L.A.’s offensive line is among them.
Alt is moving to the right side to account for incumbent Chargers left tackle Rashawn Slater. Alt’s presence has the added benefit of bumping Trey Pipkins from RT to RG, upgrading the Bolts’ OL in multiple spots.
6) Tyler Guyton, OT, Dallas Cowboys
Round 1 draft slot: No. 29
Replacing a future Hall of Fame left tackle on a playoff-caliber team is no easy task, but Guyton has looked outstanding as the Cowboys’ Tyron Smith successor through two preseason games.
PFF’s charting debits Guyton with just one pressure allowed on 30 pass-blocking snaps. Former NFL offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz said, “You can’t teach (Guyton’s) level of effort to finish a defender” in the run game.
Two years after drafting future All-Pro guard Tyler Smith, Dallas might’ve found another star.
5) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
Round 1 draft slot: No. 4
Viewed as one of the best wide receiver prospects in recent memory, Harrison should dominate targets from the get-go. MHJ, who played 20% of his snaps in the slot at Ohio State in 2023, and Cards TE Trey McBride (51.9% slot last year) give offensive play-caller Drew Petzing all sorts of formational options to create advantageous looks for his top weapons.
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Once quarterback Kyler Murray (ACL) returned in Week 10, Arizona’s offense became more than a curiosity. They were downright efficient, ranking ninth in EPA per play with Murray on the field, according to TruMedia.
Adding Harrison to an already exciting unit might result in 2024 fireworks.
4) Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Round 1 draft slot: No. 6
Although the jury is still out on whether Harrison or Nabers will be the better NFL receiver, the new Giants receiver undoubtedly has more rookie-year opportunities in front of him. While Harrison will face target competition from McBride, Michael Wilson, and RB James Conner, Nabers is New York’s unquestioned leading receiver.
Puka Nacua set the NFL rookie record with 160 targets in 2023. The Giants would need to increase their projected play volume for Nabers to get there. Still, he’s the alpha in a pass-catching room that watched TE Darren Waller retire over the offseason.
3) Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Round 1 draft slot: No. 12
Quarterbacks have such outsized importance that any first-round rookie headed toward a starting role deserves to be at the top of our list.
Nix is certainly trending in that direction. While Sean Payton hasn’t officially named Denver’s starter, Nix is the heavy favorite after completing 23 of 30 attempts for 211 yards and two touchdowns across two preseason games.
Nix throws well on the run, but his mobility can be a double-edged sword. In the Broncos’ first preseason game, he seemed skittish and was too quick to exit the pocket.
Nix appeared more comfortable on Saturday but settled for short passes. His average depth of target was just four yards, 58th among 60 QBs with at least 10 attempts in Week 2.
2) Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Round 1 draft slot: No. 2
Daniels’ preseason totals — 15 dropbacks with little pressure and primarily quick throws — didn’t tell us much. Still, the reigning Heisman winner was always the lopsided favorite to earn Washington’s starting quarterback job. Head coach Dan Quinn officially named Daniels his QB1 on Monday.
More than anything, Daniels appeared poised during the preseason. That could change when the Commanders’ subpar offensive line faces real defensive game plans during the regular season, but Daniels has given Washington’s fanbase reason for optimism.
1) Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Round 1 draft slot: No. 1
The easiest pick on the list. The “generational prospect” label gets thrown around far too often, but Williams is just that.
The No. 1 overall pick got off to a slow start in Chicago’s Week 2 preseason game. But Williams made the throw of the exhibition season on Saturday, evading pressure and throwing on the run before connecting with Odunze on a beautiful 45-yard completion.
The play highlighted everything Williams brings to the table: pocket mobility, play extension, creation ability, and insane arm talent.
Surrounded by the best offensive environment for a quarterback drafted first overall in recent memory, Williams is set up for a special rookie season.