Evaluating quarterback performance across eras is no easy feat. While traditional stats still draw attention, advanced metrics offer a deeper, more complete picture of who truly excelled. To cut through the noise and eliminate bias, we used our proprietary PFSN QB+ metrics to assess every quarterback’s career from the start of the 21st century on.
QB+ is a formula that assigns a score and letter grade to each quarterback’s individual performance. The metric blends stats like success rates when pressured, third-down conversion rate, and pocket production. The added wrinkle? Quantifying “clutch.” We used timeliness-based stats to account for score and situation.
To avoid small-sample-size outliers, we set the bar at 200 regular-season pass attempts to qualify for a ranking. However, we also discussed quarterbacks who didn’t hit that mark where relevant.
Here are the 25 highest-rated quarterbacks of the 21st century.
1) Peyton Manning
No quarterback in NFL history has won more MVPs than Peyton Manning, who claimed the honor five times over his 18-year career. Known as the “Sheriff” for his command at the line of scrimmage, Manning lived up to the hype after being selected No. 1 overall in the 1998 NFL Draft.
Manning revolutionized the position with elite accuracy, pre-snap reads, and relentless preparation. He led some of the league’s most dangerous offenses, including the 2013 Denver Broncos, where he set single-season records for both passing touchdowns (55) and yards (5,477). He finished his career with 71,940 passing yards and 539 touchdowns, ranking third all time in both categories.
Manning’s advanced metrics are elite, posting a near-perfect 99.9 QB+ score. His +0.23 career EPA per dropback is the best of any quarterback in the 21st century, and in close games, his +0.26 EPA/DB ranks second only to Patrick Mahomes.
Manning’s playoff résumé isn’t as pristine — 14-13 record with an 87.4 passer rating — but he proved he could win when it mattered. He became the first starting quarterback to win Super Bowls with two different franchises. Two titles, seven first-team All-Pro honors, and 14 Pro Bowls later, Manning now has a bust in Canton.
2) Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes is only 29, but he already has a case as a top-three quarterback of all time. Since becoming the Kansas City Chiefs’ starter in 2018, Mahomes has won three Super Bowls, three Super Bowl MVPs, and two league MVPs. He’s played in six straight AFC title games, made five Super Bowl appearances, and owns a 17-4 playoff record (second only to Tom Brady in postseason wins and touchdowns).
What sets Mahomes apart is his ability to elevate in the biggest moments. His playoff passer rating (105.8) is higher than his regular-season mark (103.5). He holds the highest close-game EPA per dropback in QB+ history, and his 47.5% conversion rate on third and fourth downs is the best of any QB since 2000.
Patrick Mahomes converted two crucial third downs on the @Chiefs‘ game-winning drive.
Clutch again. pic.twitter.com/zEF9IBzlf2
— NFL (@NFL) December 9, 2024
Mahomes’ poise under pressure is rare. His -0.1 pressured EPA/DB ranks among the best, and his +0.34 from a clean pocket is elite. His 2018 MVP season — 50 touchdowns and a breakout year — was just the start of a historic run. And he’s far from done.
3) Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy landing at No. 3 may be a surprise, but the San Francisco 49ers’ 2022 Mr. Irrelevant has outperformed every expectation.
While his three-year sample size is smaller than most on this list, Purdy’s early returns are impossible to ignore. He’s started 36 games, thrown for 9,518 yards, 64 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions. In 2023, his first full season as San Francisco’s starter, Purdy led the NFL in net yards per attempt (8.74), yards per completion (13.9), passer rating (113.0), and touchdown rate (7.0%).
Despite a 23-13 regular-season record and 4-2 playoff mark, some still label Purdy a “game manager” due to Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and the supporting cast. But the metrics say otherwise.
Purdy’s +0.21 EPA per dropback ties Mahomes for second all time, trailing only Manning. He leads the league in net yards per attempt (8.4) and has a +0.43 EPA/DB from a clean pocket. He’s also efficient as a runner, posting a +0.57 EPA per designed run across 35 such plays.
Purdy is not yet a consensus top-tier quarterback, but his start suggests his ceiling is far higher than many thought.
4) Drew Brees
Drew Brees didn’t have elite physical tools, but few quarterbacks ever played with more precision. Across 20 seasons, Brees led the NFL in passing yards seven times, completion percentage six times, and touchdown passes on four occasions. He was the centerpiece of the NFL’s most explosive offense for years and delivered the New Orleans Saints their first Super Bowl win in 2009.
Brees ranks second all time in passing yards (80,358) and touchdowns (571), and holds records for completions and passing yards per game. Brees also had seven seasons with a completion rate of at least 70%, the most in NFL history. He made 13 Pro Bowls and twice won Offensive Player of the Year.
Brees’ +0.18 EPA/DB is elite, but his +0.26 in close games shows how often he rose to the occasion. He converted 43.9% of third and fourth downs and posted a surprising +0.47 EPA per rush on 156 designed runs.
Brees guided New Orleans to seven division titles and nine playoff berths. While he didn’t stack rings, his consistency, leadership, and statistical dominance earned him a spot among the best.
5) Josh Allen
Josh Allen is the third active quarterback in the top five — and he’s trending up after winning the 2024 MVP, edging out Lamar Jackson.
Allen led the Buffalo Bills to a 13-4 record, throwing for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. He added 531 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground.
That INT total stands out. Allen had thrown double-digit picks in five of his first six years, averaging 13 per season. But in 2024, he cleaned it up and solidified himself as an elite all-around threat.
For his career, Allen has 26,434 passing yards, 195 touchdowns, 84 interceptions, and a 63.3% completion rate with a 93.4 passer rating. He’s clutch, posting a +0.22 EPA/DB in close games and a 46.1% third- and fourth-down conversion rate. His +0.28 EPA/DB from a clean pocket and -0.09 under pressure are solid across the board.
But Allen’s rushing ability is what makes him unique. He’s logged 4,142 rushing yards and 65 touchdowns since 2018 — more than any QB in that span. With 398 designed runs, his +0.35 EPA per carry is outstanding.
Allen is only 29. With improved ball security and elite dual-threat production, his case for all-time greatness is just beginning.
6) Tom Brady
On most lists, Brady would be the unquestioned GOAT. But through the lens of the QB+ metric, he narrowly misses the top five.
That said, there’s no minimizing Brady’s absurd résumé. His seven Super Bowl titles are more than any other player (or franchise) in NFL history. He won six with the New England Patriots and added a seventh with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at age 43, becoming just the second quarterback to win titles with multiple teams.
From the iconic 28-3 comeback in Super Bowl 51 to his decades-long dominance of the AFC East, Brady’s legacy was secure long before he retired. He holds nearly every meaningful career passing record: most passing yards (89,214), touchdowns (649), completions (7,753), and wins (251).
Brady’s postseason record is even more ridiculous, with 35 playoff wins, 10 Super Bowl appearances, and five Super Bowl MVPs — each of them league records. His 2007 campaign, where he threw 50 touchdown passes and led the Patriots to a perfect 16-0 regular season, stands as one of the most dominant single-year performances ever.
So, why is Brady No. 6? His 94.6 QB+ score is just 0.1 behind Allen. His +0.16 EPA per dropback doesn’t quite match the elite company ahead of him, though he did shine in clutch situations with a +0.21 EPA/DB in close games. Surprisingly, his rushing metrics give him a small boost: he logged 276 designed runs and posted a +0.42 EPA per rush.
Brady’s unmatched consistency, meticulous preparation, and poise under pressure remain his trademarks. He had just one losing season in 23 years, and even then, his team made the playoffs. No one has matched Brady’s ability to elevate when it mattered most.
7) Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers’ short-lived stint with the New York Jets didn’t go as planned, but his overall career remains one of the most efficient in NFL history. A four-time league MVP (second only to Manning), Rodgers is one of six quarterbacks with 150+ career wins and ranks top five all time in passing touchdowns.
He led the Green Bay Packers to a Super Bowl title in 2010, earning MVP honors after a playoff run that included a 109.8 passer rating and 8.3 yards per attempt.
Rodgers has long been defined by his elite efficiency and careful decision-making. He holds the best career TD-to-INT ratio in NFL history and has thrown more than 10 picks in a season just four times in 20 years.
At his peak, Rodgers’ numbers were outrageous. In 2011, he set the single-season passer rating record (122.5) while throwing 45 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 15 games.
Rodgers owns a +0.17 EPA per dropback and consistently delivered in crunch time, logging a +0.24 EPA/DB in close games. He also produced a +0.27 EPA/DB from a clean pocket, though he saw a dip under pressure (-0.32).
While starting his career behind Brett Favre limited some early totals, Rodgers’ MVP-level seasons, longevity, and unmatched efficiency solidify his place among the all-time greats.
8) Tony Romo
Tony Romo went undrafted out of Eastern Illinois and entered the NFL as a backup. But once he got a shot with the Dallas Cowboys, he made the most of it.
Romo took over for Drew Bledsoe in 2006 and immediately transformed the offense. In his first year as a starter, he made the Pro Bowl and led the Cowboys to the playoffs. He would go on to break nearly every major passing record in franchise history — a tall order for a team with as rich a legacy as Dallas.
Romo retired with 34,183 passing yards and 248 touchdown passes (both franchise records at the time). He also set the Cowboys’ single-season passing mark with 4,903 yards in 2012.
A four-time Pro Bowler, Romo posted a 78-49 career record as a starter and maintained a consistently high level of play throughout his career. His advanced metrics back up his standing in QB+. His +0.26 EPA per dropback in close games ties him with Manning for second all time, behind only Mahomes. Romo also averaged 7.09 net yards per pass attempt, a solid mark across an 11-year career.
Though critics often pointed to his 2-4 playoff record, Romo’s full body of work tells the story of a quarterback who consistently outperformed expectations.
9) Lamar Jackson
Jackson entered the NFL with a chip on his shoulder after falling to pick 32 in the 2018 NFL Draft. Since then, he’s become one of the most dynamic quarterbacks the game has ever seen.
At just 28, Jackson is already a two-time MVP — an accomplishment only a handful of quarterbacks can claim. He’s already second in Baltimore Ravens history in both passing yards (20,059) and touchdowns (166), but what truly separates Jackson is what he’s done on the ground. He ranks third in franchise history in rushing yards (6,173) and touchdowns (33) — as a quarterback.
Jackson is arguably the most dangerous dual-threat QB of all time, with more rushing yards than any quarterback in history. On 664 designed runs, he’s averaged a +0.22 EPA per carry (exceptional given the workload). His passing efficiency has also improved. He owns a +0.31 EPA per dropback from a clean pocket and a -0.17 when pressured.
The knock? Playoff success. Until Jackson can beat the AFC’s elite and make a deep postseason run, questions about his ceiling will remain. But the individual production speaks volumes.
10) Daunte Culpepper
If not for a devastating knee injury in 2005, Daunte Culpepper may have been remembered as one of the true greats of his era. Drafted No. 11 overall by the Minnesota Vikings in 1999, Culpepper sat his rookie season before bursting onto the scene in 2000.
He led the NFL with 33 touchdown passes in his first year as a starter and added seven rushing scores while leading Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game.
Culpepper’s 2004 season remains one of the best in franchise history: 4,717 passing yards, 39 touchdowns, and a 110.9 passer rating. If not for Manning’s historic season that same year, Culpepper could’ve walked away with MVP honors.
In close games, Culpepper was elite, posting a terrific +0.25 EPA per dropback mark. And while known more for his arm, he was an underrated runner, recording a +0.40 EPA per rush on 293 designed runs.
Yes, Culpepper benefited from playing alongside Randy Moss and Cris Carter. And yes, he never quite bounced back after his knee injury. But at his peak, few QBs were more dangerous or productive.
11) Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts has cemented his legacy in Philadelphia, leading the Eagles to their second Super Bowl title and another appearance. In just four seasons as the full-time starter, he’s already made a major impact.
Hurts has started 66 games since joining the Eagles in 2020, compiling an impressive 46-20 record. Through five seasons, he’s thrown for 14,667 yards, 85 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions, with a 64.4% completion rate and a 93.5 passer rating. And after throwing 15 interceptions in 2023, he rebounded with just five in 2024.
Hurts is a true dual-threat weapon, with 3,133 rushing yards and 55 rushing touchdowns — third most by a quarterback in NFL history. Sure, the “Tush Push” inflates that number, but you can’t knock Hurts for using an unstoppable play.
On 446 designed runs, he’s averaged a +0.29 EPA per carry. His passing numbers aren’t elite, but Hurts’ 46.8% third- and fourth-down conversion rate ranks among the best in QB+ history.
He’s benefited from a strong offensive line and elite skill players, but Hurts’ leadership and consistency are undeniable. If he continues at this pace, he’ll climb even higher on this list.
12) Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy Garoppolo is something of an outlier on this list, having started just 64 games over 11 NFL seasons. Still, his 43-21 record as a starter is impressive.
Garoppolo’s best season came in 2019, when he started all 16 games for the 49ers and threw for 3,978 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He completed 69.1% of his passes, posted a 102.0 passer rating, and led the NFL with four fourth-quarter comebacks.
Garoppolo’s advanced numbers aren’t flashy, but they’re consistent. He owns a +0.12 EPA per dropback for his career, which improves to +0.22 in close games. He’s also posted a 44.5% conversion rate on third and fourth downs and a +0.32 EPA/DB from a clean pocket.
At 33, Garoppolo is now viewed as a veteran backup. With limited starts and a ceiling that’s likely already been reached, he may slip down this list as younger QBs continue to rise.
13) Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott may not have reached the mountaintop yet, but he’s firmly in the mix among the best QBs of the 21st century, with room to climb.
Drafted in the fourth round in 2016, Prescott was supposed to sit behind Romo. Instead, he was thrust into action and delivered one of the greatest rookie seasons ever: 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns, just four interceptions, a 13-3 record, and Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Since then, he’s remained the face of the Cowboys. He ranks second in franchise history in passing touchdowns (213) and third in yards (31,437). In 2021, Prescott set the team’s single-season touchdown record with 37 (including playoffs). In 2019, he nearly hit 5,000 passing yards.
Prescott has been efficient, posting a passer rating over 90.0 in seven of nine seasons. He tends to start fast, with a career +0.27 EPA per dropback in the first half — one of the best QB+ marks ever. He’s also delivered in tight spots, posting a +0.22 EPA/DB in close games. While not known for his legs, he’s added value there too, with 148 designed runs and a +0.45 EPA per carry.
Critics continue to question his playoff résumé, but the production, poise, and leadership are hard to ignore.
14) Philip Rivers
Philip Rivers may not have the playoff glory of his peers, but in terms of toughness, consistency, and pure production, he’s one of the most accomplished quarterbacks of the century.
After sitting behind Brees for two years, Rivers became the Chargers’ full-time starter in 2006 and never missed a start through the end of his career in 2020. He started 240 straight games (including playoffs), the second-longest streak by a quarterback in NFL history.
Statistically, Rivers ranks sixth all time in both passing yards (63,440) and touchdowns (421). He threw for over 4,000 yards in 12 different seasons, and his 397 TDs and 59,271 yards with the Chargers are both franchise records.
His advanced numbers are solid, but not elite. He posted a +0.15 EPA per dropback for his career and a +0.07 EPA/DB in close games. His 41.4% third-down conversion rate is on the lower side for QBs on this list. However, he was efficient when clean (+0.24 EPA/DB) and handled pressure decently (-0.20 EPA/DB).
Rivers may never have gotten that ring, but his longevity and production speak for themselves.
15) Rich Gannon
Rich Gannon is the first player on this list who played most of his career before 2000, yet his late-career run in Oakland was good enough to qualify. A fourth-round pick in 1987, Gannon bounced around with Minnesota, Washington, and Kansas City before landing with the Raiders in 1999. That’s where his career hit another gear.
Gannon went 45-29 as a starter in Oakland, throwing for 17,585 yards, 114 touchdowns, and 50 interceptions with a 91.2 passer rating. His 2002 campaign, specifically, stands out most, having led the league in attempts (618) and passing yards (4,689) while winning NFL MVP. He guided the Raiders to the Super Bowl, capping his best pro season.
Gannon’s +0.32 EPA per dropback in first halves helped power his 89.5 QB+ score. He also posted a +0.22 EPA/DB in close games. His 37.8% third-down conversion rate was low, but he made up for it with a +0.39 EPA per rush on 150 designed runs — surprising for a quarterback in his mid-30s.
While Gannon’s prime came late, his high-efficiency stretch with the Raiders earns him a spot among the best of the century.
16) Ben Roethlisberger
Ben Roethlisberger isn’t just one of the best quarterbacks of the 21st century; he may be the greatest to ever play for the storied Pittsburgh Steelers. Few quarterbacks have defined a franchise the way Big Ben did. Over 18 seasons, he not only rewrote the team’s passing records but led the Steelers to three Super Bowl appearances and two titles (2005 and 2008), cementing his status among the greats of his era.
Roethlisberger retired as Pittsburgh’s all-time leader in passing yards (64,088) and touchdowns (418). He ranks eighth in NFL history in both categories and recorded 15 seasons with at least 3,000 passing yards, including six 4,000-yard campaigns and one 5,000-yard season in 2018.
Roethlisberger’s 165-81-1 record as a starter speaks to his consistency, and his postseason performances were key to Pittsburgh’s success. He won his first 13 regular-season starts — the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to do so — and captured a Super Bowl title in just his second season.
Roethlisberger finished his career with a +0.12 EPA per dropback, which jumped to +0.17 in close games. Though not known for athleticism, his +0.47 EPA per rush was one of the best in QB+ history. A future Hall of Famer, he’s one of the most accomplished signal-callers of the modern era.
17) Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is the greatest quarterback in Atlanta Falcons history and one of the top passers since 2000. Drafted No. 3 overall in 2008, Ryan gave Atlanta instant stability, winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and leading the team to an 11-5 record in his first season. From that point on, he became the face of the franchise.
Ryan finished his Falcons career with a 120-102 record, four Pro Bowl selections, and nearly every passing record in team history. His best season came in 2016 when he threw for 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns, completing almost 70% of his passes and winning NFL MVP while leading Atlanta to the Super Bowl.
Though the 28-3 collapse still looms, Ryan’s season was elite. He had 10 seasons with 4,000+ passing yards and ranks top 10 in NFL history in both passing yards and touchdowns. Advanced stats show consistent efficiency: +0.26 EPA per dropback from a clean pocket, +0.17 in close games, and a 42.9% third- and fourth-down conversion rate.
18) Kurt Warner
Kurt Warner’s career started before the QB+ era, but it includes some of the best years measured by the metric. In 2000, he led the NFL in completion percentage (67.7%), yards per completion (14.6), and net yards per pass attempt (9.03).
Warner made his mark with the St. Louis Rams during “The Greatest Show on Turf,” one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. He later had a successful run with the Arizona Cardinals, earning a Pro Bowl nod in 2008 at age 37. Warner finished his career with 32,344 passing yards, 208 touchdowns, and a 93.7 passer rating. In 2001, he led the league with 4,830 yards and 36 TD passes.
When the Rams scored 57 points in one game and made it look EASY 😳 pic.twitter.com/DGgf34FoY3
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) May 5, 2025
From an advanced standpoint, Warner’s numbers weren’t elite but were solid — +0.13 EPA per dropback and 7.5 net yards per attempt. Those numbers, combined with his playoff success, helped earn him a spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
19) Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow is entering his prime and already belongs among the NFL’s best. Since being drafted No. 1 overall, he’s helped turn the Cincinnati Bengals around, leading them to a 5-2 playoff record and a Super Bowl appearance.
Burrow holds the highest completion percentage in NFL history (68.6%) and ranks third in touchdown passes through five seasons (140). His 1.8% interception rate is the sixth-lowest all time. Despite injuries, a shaky O-line, and inconsistent defensive help, he’s kept Cincinnati competitive and nearly carried them to the playoffs again in 2024.
Burrow’s +0.09 career EPA per dropback isn’t eye-popping, but he makes up for it in key situations: +0.22 EPA/DB in close games, +0.28 from a clean pocket, and a 43.8% third- and fourth-down conversion rate. Throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could help boost those numbers further in the coming years.
If Burrow stays healthy, his accuracy and clutch play could put him on a Hall of Fame path.
20) Jeff Garcia
Jeff Garcia’s career started just before 2000, but the QB+ metric still captures his most productive seasons.
Garcia spent most of his time with the 49ers but also had stints in Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay. He threw for 25,537 yards, 161 touchdowns, and 83 interceptions across 11 seasons, finishing with a 61.6% completion rate and 87.5 passer rating. He also topped 30 touchdown passes in both 2000 and 2001.
Garcia’s 58-58 record as a starter includes tough years with the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions. He posted a +0.12 EPA per dropback, with similar marks in clutch moments.
Garcia’s rushing ability added to his value. With 251 designed runs, he posted a +0.31 EPA per rush and scored 26 rushing touchdowns. While his advanced metrics weren’t elite, his four Pro Bowl selections show the league recognized his impact.
21) Russell Wilson
While Russell Wilson isn’t the player he once was, there’s no denying he’s been one of the most impactful quarterbacks of his era. A 2012 third-round pick, Wilson became the Seattle Seahawks’ starter from Day 1 and didn’t miss a regular-season start until his final year with the team in 2021.
In 10 seasons with Seattle, Wilson tallied 37,059 passing yards, 292 touchdowns, and 87 interceptions, with a 65.0% completion rate and 101.8 passer rating. He led the league in passer rating in 2015 (110.1) and in touchdown passes in 2017 (34).
Wilson also rushed for 4,689 yards and 23 touchdowns during his time with the Seahawks. And while his production dipped during stints with the Broncos and Steelers, he still posted a passer rating of 95.0 or better in each of the past two seasons.
Wilson’s advanced metrics show he hasn’t been quite as efficient as some of his peers, with a career +0.09 EPA per dropback. However, he’s raised his game in tight moments (+0.20 EPA/DB). His 38.3% third- and fourth-down conversion rate leaves room for improvement, but his +0.25 EPA per rush helps even things out.
Though Wilson’s play has declined with age, he’s a 10-time Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl champion, and one of the defining quarterbacks of his generation.
22) Trent Green
Trent Green’s sample size isn’t as large as most other retired quarterbacks on this list. He made 113 starts and finished with a 56-57 record, having missed nearly two full seasons early on. Green also entered the league at age 27, and by the time QB+ was introduced, he was already 30.
Green finished his 11-year career with 28,475 passing yards, 162 touchdowns, and 114 interceptions. Outside of a league-leading 5.5% touchdown rate in 2002, he didn’t top any major statistical categories — unless you count leading the NFL in picks in 2001 (24).
Green ended with a +0.14 EPA per dropback, with his most notable metrics being 7.3 net yards per pass attempt and a +0.37 EPA per rush on 109 designed runs.
23) Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert’s résumé is incomplete, but his early-career production has been historic. In just five seasons, he’s recorded more passing yards (21,093) and completions (1,945) than any other quarterback through the same span. He also has the lowest interception rate (1.5%) over a QB’s first five years (minimum 2,000 attempts).
Herbert owns a +0.1 career EPA per dropback and a +0.15 EPA/DB in close games. He’s been highly efficient from a clean pocket (+0.25 EPA/DB), though he could be sharper under pressure (+0.21 EPA/DB). His legs add value, with a +0.3 EPA per rush on 69 designed runs.
While Herbert’s lack of playoff wins (0-2) gets attention, the bigger issue has been the team around him. With Jim Harbaugh in town and an upgraded roster, he may be ready to turn that around.
24) Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston may be the most surprising inclusion on this list. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance, he’s also had his fair share of struggles, as the 2015 No. 1 overall pick has never quite lived up to expectations.
Over his first 10 NFL seasons, Winston totaled 24,225 passing yards, 154 touchdowns, and 111 interceptions. He holds a 61.2% completion rate and an 86.4 passer rating.
Winston’s best year came in 2019, when he led the league in attempts (626) and passing yards (5,109). Unfortunately, his 30 interceptions also led the NFL. In fact, he’s thrown double-digit picks in six different seasons, including last year, when he had 12 despite only starting seven games.
Winston often starts hot (+0.25 EPA per dropback in first halves), but that drops off sharply after halftime (+0.08 EPA/DB). He’s also struggled under pressure (-0.43 EPA/DB), though he has a +0.25 EPA/DB from a clean pocket.
Inconsistent play has pushed Winston into a backup role, and he hasn’t started more than seven games since 2019. His spot on this list may not last long.
T-25) Tua Tagovailoa and Andrew Luck
Tua Tagovailoa and Andrew Luck share the final spot on this list, each earning an 84.1 QB+ score. Luck remains one of the NFL’s biggest what-ifs, having played just six seasons before retiring. That he still made the cut shows how much potential he had.
In 86 games, Luck threw for 23,671 yards, 171 touchdowns, and 83 interceptions, with an 89.5 passer rating. He made four Pro Bowls and led the league in passing touchdowns in 2014 (40). Luck’s advanced numbers include +0.10 EPA per dropback and +0.21 EPA/DB in close games.
Tagovailoa’s story is still unfolding. He leads one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses on paper, but the Miami Dolphins’ passing attack regressed in 2024, due in part to his availability. Still, his career numbers are strong: 15,506 passing yards, 100 touchdowns, 44 interceptions, a 68.1% completion rate, and a 97.9 passer rating over 64 games.
Tagovailoa holds a +0.1 career EPA per dropback and a +0.17 EPA/DB in close games. His 39.5% third-down conversion rate needs work, but he’s solid from a clean pocket (+0.26 EPA/DB). If he can stay healthy, he has the tools to move up this list.