Many NFL teams are already looking ahead to the offseason. With the bottom of the standings more packed than usual, it’s a tight race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, we take a look at the opposite end of the spectrum and analyze the teams likeliest to earn the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
New York Giants (2-10)
The New York Giants started their third quarterback in as many weeks and came up short on Thanksgiving in Dallas. Drew Lock wasn’t really a meaningful improvement over Tommy DeVito, taking six sacks and turning the ball over twice (including a pick-six). It’s not totally clear who the Giants will start once DeVito is healthy, or whether it makes any difference.
That was one of their more winnable games remaining, leaving the possibility open that the Giants could finish with their fewest wins since 1974. As a result, the Giants have a 30.7% chance to earn the first overall pick, easily the highest of any team.
New York has the 10th-hardest remaining strength of schedule. They’re the prohibitive favorites for the top pick given their schedule and mess of a quarterback situation.
Giants’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 14: vs. New Orleans Saints
- Week 15: vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Week 16: at Atlanta Falcons
- Week 17: vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Week 18: at Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots (3-10)
After the Colts snatched a win away at Gillette Stadium, the New England Patriots have a 21.3% chance of selecting No. 1 overall, the second-highest odds for any team.
No extra point needed, AR wanted two.
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/J1tII90qbR
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) December 1, 2024
The Patriots have the fifth-hardest remaining strength of schedule, thus why they rank so highly in these projections despite having three wins. New England’s projection is a little trickier, as its offense has looked livelier with Drake Maye at quarterback.
Still, the defense has regressed in the first year post-Bill Belichick, leaving New England as a bottom-10 unit by EPA per play. The Patriots are unlikely to be favored in any of their remaining games, so they could contend for the top pick if their pattern of competitive losses continues.
Patriots’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at Arizona Cardinals
- Week 16: at Buffalo Bills
- Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 18: vs. Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers (3-9)
The Carolina Panthers nearly pulled off another upset win behind an impressive showing from Bryce Young, but fell in overtime to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While the Panthers no longer feel like one of the laughingstocks of the league, they do have a 13.9% chance to earn the No. 1 pick, third-highest of any team.
Carolina has the 15th-hardest remaining strength of schedule. They could be favored in Week 15 at home against the Cowboys but will almost certainly be underdogs in every other game.
Note that the Panthers currently own one of the easiest strengths of schedules to date, which plays a role in breaking draft order ties (teams with an easier SOS will earn a pick over a team with the same record but a harder SOS).
Panthers’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 14: at Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 15: vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Week 16: vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Week 17: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 18: at Atlanta Falcons
Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
The Raiders have a 12.6% chance to earn the first pick after fumbling away a potential massive upset of the Kansas City Chiefs on Black Friday. That leaves Las Vegas with the fourth-highest odds of any team.
Las Vegas has a manageable remaining strength of schedule (20th-hardest), with only its regular-season finale against the Chargers being a game against a team with a winning record. The Raiders’ biggest swing will come in Week 16 when they face the fellow two-win Jacksonville Jaguars.
Las Vegas could be favored at home versus Jacksonville but will be coming off a short week after hosting the Falcons on Monday Night Football the week before. That result should lead to a significant change in its draft outlook.
Raiders’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 14: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 15: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 16: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 17: at New Orleans Saints
- Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
The Jacksonville Jaguars lost again in Week 13, with a vicious hit on Trevor Lawrence marring an otherwise competitive comeback effort against the division-leading Houston Texans. The Jags have an 11.3% chance to earn the first pick, the fifth-highest odds for any team.
The key to the Jaguars’ chances of picking No. 1 may lie in a soft five-game finish to the season. None of Jacksonville’s final five opponents have a winning record, and as a result, the Jags actually have the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule. That includes three games against the Tennessee Titans and Raiders.
The Jaguars’ performance in that stretch could mean the difference between picking first and picking in the latter half of the top 10.
Jaguars’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 14: at Tennessee Titans
- Week 15: vs. New York Jets
- Week 16: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 17: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 18: at Indianapolis Colts
Cleveland Browns (3-8)
The Browns had a league-high 27.2% chance to earn the first overall pick entering Week 12 but delivered an upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now they’re down to 6.7%, sixth-highest. Their two games remaining against teams below .500 are the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dolphins, which both remain in the AFC Wild Card mix.
PFN’s Power Rankings, which measure team strength using situational EPA (expected points added) and success rate metrics, have the Dolphins 16th overall and the Bengals 20th. Miami is a particularly tricky evaluation given how much worse the offense performed without Tua Tagovailoa, but it ranks as a top-five offense by both EPA per play and points per drive since his return in Week 8.
With the Browns likely to be significant underdogs in every game remaining, they remain firmly in the hunt for the No. 1 pick, even with three wins.
Browns’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 13: at Denver Broncos
- Week 14: at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 15: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 16: at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 17: vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 18: at Baltimore Ravens