The NFL is unpredictable on the field, and the NFL Draft is no different. Even with all the information out there and the draft becoming its own industry, there’s no way to accurately forecast which teams will throw a curveball when they’re on the clock.
However, with years of draft data and knowledge about this year’s class, we can try. PFSN is debuting a draft metric called Expected Draft Range. This metric projects a high, median, and low-end pick for where each prospect is expected to go in the NFL Draft. Expected Draft Range uses historical consensus big boards from the NFL Mock Draft Database, which dates back to 2016, and applies it to this year’s PFSN big board. The projections consider a few factors:
- The prospect’s position
- Where the prospect ranks overall on PFSN’s 2025 big board (as of April 16)
- Where the prospect ranks within his specific position
Using this, we’re able to project a prospect’s landing range based on the value of each position, while also realizing that this year’s pre-draft QB3 (Jaxson Dart) shouldn’t be projected as highly as last year’s pre-draft QB3 (Jayden Daniels). With that said, let’s break down the projections by position for the top 100 in this year’s PFSN big board.
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks who are ranked highly on the overall big board tend to have a very high ceiling and floor. As such, it’s no surprise to see Cam Ward with a very narrow range as the second overall player and top-ranked quarterback. Quarterback prospects with this profile almost always go first overall, as Ward surely will when the Tennessee Titans call their pick in.
Shedeur Sanders’ high-end range is not nearly as high as many would have expected in the draft process. However, it now appears likelier he’ll fall to the latter half of the top 10, and his low-end projection would put him within range for the Pittsburgh Steelers to draft him 21st overall.
The rest of the quarterbacks have rankings that would place them in the second and third rounds. While it’s a little surprising to not see the likes of Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe pushed up higher in these projections, history says that quarterbacks graded in this range don’t usually go far higher than their rankings. As a recent example, the 2022 NFL Draft saw three quarterbacks drafted in the third round after Kenny Pickett was the only QB drafted in the first two rounds.
Running Backs
Apart from Ashton Jeanty, PFSN’s big board is lower on this year’s running back class than consensus. Running backs who are ranked as highly as Jeanty are rare and tend to go very high, hence Jeanty’s ceiling projection of first overall. He almost certainly won’t hit that, but prior elite running back prospects like Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, and Leonard Fournette all went in the top eight picks. With a median projection of seventh overall, Jeanty is right in line to join them.
Otherwise, PFSN’s big board doesn’t have any running back prospects ranked in the top 30. Granted, there are four ranked between 36th and 56th, illustrating the terrific depth of this year’s class. On draft night, this figures to break one of two ways: either teams will draft running backs early because the class is stronger than usual or the depth of the class will actually push running backs down since teams will have multiple options in the middle rounds.
These projections would bet on the latter option, with roughly four running backs projected to go in the second round. That would be the most Round 2 running backs in a single year since 2020 (which had five). Many expect Omarion Hampton to end up as a first-rounder, but don’t be surprised if the early second round sees a run if teams like the Las Vegas Raiders, Dallas Cowboys, and Chicago Bears don’t get their lead rusher in the first round.
Wide Receivers
Apart from Tetairoa McMillan and Matthew Golden, none of the wide receivers are projected to go on the first round. This illustrates how we should expect a heavy run on receivers at multiple points in Day 2. Even McMillan and Golden themselves don’t come with particularly high floors, though even their most pessimistic projections would have them landing with playoff teams at the end of the first round.
On Day 2, there are seven receivers with a median projection between the 39th pick and 73rd pick. That could lead to a run like we saw last year, when five wideouts went in a seven-pick span between the 31st and 37th overall picks.
A wild card here is Isaiah Bond, an already divisive prospect who faces sexual assault allegations that were reported earlier in April. If enough teams remove Bond from their boards and push other receivers up, the likes of Jayden Higgins, Jack Bech, and Elic Ayomanor might go higher than these projections would suggest.
Tight Ends
It’s rare to have two consensus top-20 tight ends, which is the case this year with Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland. There isn’t a lot of precedent for tight ends to be ranked this highly, which gives them a wider variation than most top prospects at other positions. For reference, Brock Bowers (2024), Michael Mayer (2023), and Kyle Pitts (2021) are the only other tight ends who were top-20 prospects on consensus big boards the last five years.
Mayer lasting until the 35th overall pick is part of why Warren and Loveland have floor projections in the second round, even though both are expected to go in the middle of the first. The 2019 NFL Draft was the last time two tight ends were picked in the top 20, with Iowa teammates T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant going early that year.
After that, Mason Taylor is on an island as the only tight end ranked between 19 and 71. That should lead to a run in the third round, where four tight ends have a median projection between 83rd and 106th overall. At that point, teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Philadelphia Eagles could potentially be drafting succession plans to their current veteran tight ends (as Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Dallas Goedert are all entering contract years).
Offensive Tackles
Even though Will Campbell and Armand Membou are both seen as possibilities as high as No. 4 overall to the New England Patriots, the Expected Draft Range projections are lower on them than that. Even the high-end projections for both would barely keep them in the top 10.
The reason for this is because highly-ranked offensive tackles don’t usually get overdrafted, despite the perception that OTs are a premium position. Between 2016-24, the two highest-ranked OTs were drafted higher than their big board rank just three out of 18 times (17%). Those players were Paris Johnson Jr. (ranked ninth, drafted sixth), Mike McGlinchey (ranked 17th, drafted ninth), and Ronnie Stanley (ranked eighth, drafted sixth).
More often, players go slightly after their ranking, like Penei Sewell (ranked third, drafted seventh) and Rashawn Slater (ranked ninth, drafted 13th). That also hints that the Patriots would be reaching to draft either Campbell or Membou at No. 4 overall due to their glaring left tackle need, and that the Jets at seven would be doing the same to fill their right tackle hole.
The highest-concentration area for OTs in the top 100 is in the early third round. Four offensive tackles have a median rank between 65th and 87th, which means a few will likely get pushed into the second round. With this year’s draft being rich on defense, teams like the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Arizona Cardinals that need line help on both sides of the ball could be better served waiting until Day 2 to take their offensive lineman.
Interior Offensive Linemen
Guards and centers typically get pushed down in draft value. That’s a large reason why Expected Draft Range doesn’t project any interior offensive lineman as a first-round lock this year, though Tyler Booker and Grey Zabel have fringe cases.
Zabel in particular could go higher than his projection due to his versatility, with some teams likely to project him as both a starting-level guard or center. A similar recent prospect was Zion Johnson, who was ranked 20th on that year’s big board but went 17th to the Los Angeles Chargers (and could be transitioning to center for the 2025 season).
Otherwise, we should see a run of second-round interior offensive linemen. Four have a median projection between 49 and 67. The Chiefs stand out as a team that could draft one of these players in that area. Kansas City has the 63rd and 66th overall picks, and currently projects to start tackle convert Kingsley Suamataia at left guard after trading away All-Pro Joe Thuney.
Interior Defensive Linemen
This year’s class is unusually deep at defensive tackle, which could lead to some players being drafted lower than expected. Top prospects like Mason Graham, Derrick Harmon, and Walter Nolen have routinely been mocked higher than their projected ceilings, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see those players exceed their ranges.
However, at some point, DT-needy teams will either have filled their needs or see better value in the middle rounds. That will likely lead to a drop-off at some point, with the big board pointing to a large gap between the early second round and early third round.
The Expected Draft Range model projects the run to happen early in Round 3. Five defensive tackles have a median range between 77 and 95. The Seattle Seahawks (82, 92) and Houston Texans (79, 89) are the teams with multiple picks in that range, while the New Orleans Saints (71, 93) effectively fall into that bucket as well.
Edge Rushers
Similar to defensive tackle, the 2025 edge rusher class is extremely deep, which pushes down the projections for the Round 2 and 3 level prospects. Frankly, the model isn’t really equipped to deal with an edge rusher class this deep. From 2016-24, an average of 12.7 edge rushers were taken in the first three rounds. This year’s class has 17 in the top 100.
Somewhere between five and seven edge rushers are projected to go in the first round alone, counting Jalon Walker as an edge. There should especially be a run among playoff teams, as four have a median outcome between the 22nd and 36th pick.
Of course, the first two days of the draft could be one big run on edge rushers. There are also four edge rushers with a median pick between 63 and 75 and another four between 97 and 111. This makes edge rusher a position likeliest to see an early round “double dip,” where a single team takes multiple players at the same position with two of its early picks.
The Bears, Bills, and Patriots all have three or more Day 2 picks and needs at edge rusher. Teams like the Rams and Lions have two picks on Day 2 and could also feasibly be part of the edge-rusher run at the end of the first round, enabling them to double dip that way as well.
Linebackers
Note that we’ve moved Jalon Walker to the edge rusher group since that’s his likelier projected role in the NFL. That’s important because part of these projections rely on supply and demand, and if Jihaad Campbell is the top-ranked linebacker instead of the second-ranked linebacker, he’ll project to go higher even if his big board rank stays the same.
Campbelll’s high-end range would put him right around where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are picking (19th overall), which has been a popular match in mock drafts. The Alabama product is the only off-ball linebacker projected to hear his name called in the first round, as no other linebacker has a high-end projection higher than the middle of the second round.
Carson Schwesinger has some fans as an undersized coverage linebacker, though he comes with a wide projected range due to his ranking on an island as the only linebacker between 24th and 77th overall. The lack of high-quality options at this position will almost certainly push some players ranked outside the top 100 into Day 2, which many will perceive as reaches.
Cornerbacks
Recent reports indicate that Travis Hunter will probably hit something close to the high end of his projection, specifically going second overall to the Cleveland Browns. Hunter is obviously a unique prospect who ranks far higher than most cornerbacks. No draft metric is equipped to handle a prospect who is both the consensus top cornerback and wide receiver. Hunter’s real floor is obviously higher than his median projection (between sixth and seventh overall), let alone his floor projection (13th overall).
Beyond Hunter, Will Johnson looks like the only surefire first-round cornerback, though there are enough options hovering around the end of the first that others will surely sneak in. Johnson himself comes with questions about his foot injury and long speed, which could mean his floor is lower than the low-end range (19th overall pick) would suggest.
Expect a run at this position in the early-to-middle portion of the second round. The third- through eighth-ranked CBs all have median Expected Draft Range between 29th and 65th overall. Teams like the Bills, Seahawks, and Panthers have multiple second-round picks and could feasibly dip into this pool of prospects.
Safeties
This isn’t considered a particularly strong safety class, with Malaki Starks and Nick Emmanwori profiling as fringe first-round picks. By the median projection of both players, we could be staring at zero first-round safeties this year. It would be the second-straight year that’s happened, though the first safety should go a little earlier than last year (the Giants picked Tyler Nubin 47th overall).
The depth doesn’t get much better until the end of Round 3. Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts is on an island of his own as the only safety projected to go somewhere at the end of the second round and early in the third round. However, teams like the Dolphins, Vikings, and Eagles picking near the end of the third round with needs at safety could lead to one of the three players projected to go in that range.
In general, the NFL has tended to devalue safeties in the draft. Every safety in PFSN’s top 100 has a high-end range lower than their big board rank, a reflection of how the position usually gets pushed down in the draft.