There is a great deal of fantasy football articles advising you who to draft and when. However, what about the players to evade?
In the fourth part of the Players to Avoid series, I tackle the NFC South in preparation for the 2019 fantasy football season. Fantasy owners looking for the first three parts of the Player to Avoid series can click below:
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
I'm a huge fan of Drew Brees as an NFL player and human being! However, his Fantasy value based on Consistency, not so much! His current ADP is around QB8, but his Consistency ranked him 21st last year! Want more Consistency profiles? Go here: https://t.co/2t6hhxLQqA pic.twitter.com/47dTAdXVIs
— Bob Lung (@bob_lung)
The Case
I know you are probably thinking, what the heck (PG version) is this guy saying? Avoid Drew Brees?!? Are you joking?
Brees owns virtually every major NFL passing record and needs just 20 touchdowns to overtake Peyton Manning‘s top mark of 539. The future surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer is heading into his 20th NFL season as the 40-year-old quarterback attempts to recover from last season’s heartbreaking playoff loss.
The 2019 campaign will be a compelling season for Brees who has pondered retirement over the past few seasons. The former Purdue Boilermaker is probably one of the best fantasy football quarterbacks ever. He hasn’t finished lower than ninth in fantasy points at quarterback during a single season since he arrived in New Orleans in 2006. Furthermore, he has completed more than 70 percent of passes three straight seasons.
So why is Drew Brees on the Players to Avoid List?
Drew Brees had a tremendous 2018 season, or I should emphasize a tremendous first-half of the season.
During the first eight games of the 2018 season, Brees threw 18 touchdowns while amassing 2,236 yards and just one interception. However, his numbers declined in the second half to throwing for only 1,656 yards, 14 touchdowns, and four interceptions.
Although he finished the season completing 74.4 percent of his passes, his other stats were not nearly as impressive. After piling up 600-plus attempts in nine out of 10 seasons, he was under 500 in 2018, his lowest number since 2004. Brees only averaged 266 passing yards per game and ended up throwing for under 4,000 yards last season for the first time since his San Diego Chargers days back in 2005. He finished 13th in passing yards and tied for sixth in touchdowns.
His declining numbers are due to numerous factors. Brees has lost some arm strength. He had a noticeable dip in his arm velocity as the season went on.
The New Orleans Saints currently possess a top-five defense, but in past years, they were the defensive matchup that fantasy owners targeted for easy offensive points. The porous defense led to many shootouts and made Brees a top-three fantasy quarterback. However, the current defensive unit is improved and formidable. This factor has and will lead to less passing attempts by Brees.
The Saints have transitioned to a more run-heavy approach, which also plays a part in the drop-off of passing attempts. The Saints owned the fifth-most rushing attempts last season with 471. The running attack is led by Alvin Kamara, who is a top-five running back and has scored 32 touchdowns in his 31 NFL games in his career.
The Verdict
Drew Brees is no longer a surefire top-10 quarterback. However, the Saints offense is more lethal because of their balance between the run and pass.
His fantasy football production could resemble how he performed in the second half of last season. He didn’t put up 20+ fantasy points after Week 12. In the previous month of the season, Brees averaged 144 passing yards per game during a three-game road trip and only had two touchdowns versus three interceptions. His home/road splits are legendary. Fantasy owners can not trust Brees on the road.
Please don’t get me wrong. Drew Brees hasn’t turned into Eli Manning. He is still a top NFL quarterback, but he is not a top-10 fantasy football quarterback any longer.
Brees will be overvalued based upon his name recognition. He is currently getting drafted as the No.7 quarterback but drafting the Saints quarterback here is a reach. Brees doesn’t throw the ball as often as he did because he doesn’t have to.
There are other quarterbacks such as Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton who are capable of putting up similar or even better fantasy points. Both quarterbacks will be available much later. Fantasy owners should wait on quarterbacks, especially Drew Brees in their drafts, and obtain the value at this position.
