Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons
The Case
Calvin Ridley somehow fell to the 26th overall pick and was selected by the Atlanta Falcons in the 2018 NFL Draft. He quickly built a good rapport with quarterback Matt Ryan which led to the rookie sensation to produce 64 receptions for 821 yards and ten touchdowns.
Ridley led all rookies in receiving yards, yards per game, touchdowns, first downs, and was second behind the New York Giants Saquon Barkley.
Ridley exploded in Week 3, producing seven receptions for 146 yards and three touchdowns. He became the biggest waiver wire add and initially flashed his potential with tallying 277 yards and six touchdowns over a three-game span.
However, the fantasy spotlight got dark rapidly for Calvin Ridley. Seven of his ten touchdowns came in the first eight weeks of the season. He never recorded more than a hundred yards in a game after Week 3! Ridley finished as the WR41 from Week 5 through the fantasy football championship weeks.
Ridley typically suffered through consistency issues but still managed to finish as the WR22 in PPR leagues last season. His ranking resulted mostly from his touchdown production, and his yardage numbers ranked him as the 33rd best wide receiver.
The Atlanta Falcons will look vastly different in 2019. The Falcons brought back former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. They also improved their offensive line by spending two picks in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft on guard Chris Lindstrom and tackle Kaleb McGary. Additionally, they also signed free-agent guards James Carpenter and Jamon Brown along with run-blocking tight end Luke Stocker.
Running back Tevin Coleman left via free agency, but Devonta Freeman returns from injury after only playing in two games last season.
All of those moves are indicative of the Falcons looking to restore the run in 2019. The Falcons’ defense suffered a myriad of injuries in 2018 and finished as the 25th ranked defense in the league.
The lack of a running game and the inability of the defense to stop anyone made it necessary for the offense to play from behind last season continually. In 2019, both of those units are healthy and vastly improved as the Falcons look to win the NFC South.
The Verdict
A deep dive view of Ridley’s stats reflects that he did the majority of his fantasy damage in two games against the New Orleans Saints. He badgered the Saints defense into 15 receptions for 249 yards and four touchdowns in those two division games.
More importantly, he averaged a shallow 3.5 receptions along with 41.5 yards and less than half of a point including single-digit outputs against the rest of the league.
Ridley is currently getting selected as WR23, which is too expensive for the quantity of the low-floor performances. That is borderline WR2 neighborhood, which is too costly for the projection in production drop-off.
Julio Jones is healthy and is Matt Ryan‘s go-to guy. The return of Devonta Freeman boosts a weak running game. Ridley will have to contend for targets with solid possession receiver Mohammad Sanu and tight end Austin Hooper.
All of these factors will result in the over-drafting of Calvin Ridley and a player to avoid in your fantasy football drafts at his current draft capital.
