Ezekiel Elliott, for as great as he has been in his career, suddenly has a little thorn in his side named Tony Pollard. With Elliott dealing with a nagging knee injury and Pollard carving out his own role in this offense, how should fantasy football managers approach this backfield for Week 14?
Update 12/12/2022: Tony Pollard is out for the Cowboys.
Ezekiel Elliott injury update
Elliott has been dealing with an injury to his right knee for weeks but has yet to miss any time.
However, just because he hasn’t been sidelined doesn’t mean the nagging effects of the injury haven’t impacted him and fantasy managers.
Elliott is having the worst statistical stretch of his career. Since Week 6, he is averaging only 12.6 carries and 44.7 rushing yards (3.56 ypc) per game. He’s still factoring into the passing game, catching 31 of 38 targets during that time, but has only amassed 175 receiving yards over those seven contests. Elliott has scored 3 touchdowns during that stretch, all on the ground.
When fantasy managers used a high pick on Elliott prior to this season, they were certainly expecting more than a mid-RB2, which is exactly what he has been for nearly two months now.
Tony Pollard has been dynamic
Over the same stretch of seven games, Pollard has averaged 8 carries and 29.6 rushing yards (4.95 ypc) per game while taking 19 of 23 receptions for 166 yards. Simply put, Pollard is currently more explosive and more dynamic, with more long speed than Elliott has. He’s earned his own role in this offense and has been the RB25 to Elliott’s RB16 since Week 6.
There’s only one problem — Pollard now has an injury. It was reported today that Pollard tore his plantar fascia during his 58-yard touchdown run against the Saints last week.
A torn plantar fascia is incredibly painful, and for normal folks like you and me, it can take 7-12 weeks to recover from. Elliott was a full participant at practice and seems ready to go, and the Cowboys signed running back Ito Smith to their practice squad. These moves make me feel like it’s very unlikely that Pollard plays this weekend.
Pollard also told reporters that he considers himself to be a game-time decision. It is more of a pain tolerance issue, so Dallas will presumably let Pollard play if he warms up and thinks he can deal with it.
Elliott and Pollard’s fantasy expectations
If Pollard somehow is able to play through the pain, his workload would expectedly be more limited than usual. This backfield should be heavily favored towards Elliott, as long as he continues to practice in full this week. Elliott hasn’t topped 14 carries in a game in the last month, but that could change this weekend.
With the Washington Football Team on tap, I don’t have strong feelings either way about Elliott. Washington’s not amazing against the run, but they aren’t horrible either. This season, they’re giving up 22.4 fantasy points per game to the position, which is 19th-most in the league. What’s fascinating about the way they’re doing it, however, is that they’re not giving it up on the ground.
Washington is allowing only the third-fewest rushing yards per game behind Baltimore and Tampa Bay at 91.3. Look at last week, for instance — Jacobs only had 52 rushing yards, but he had a career-high 9 receptions for 38 yards. Two weeks ago, the Seahawks’ leading rusher against Washington was Russell Wilson with 16 yards. Three weeks ago, Christian McCaffrey had only 59 rushing yards but had 60 yards and a TD through the air.
Elliott could be in line for a fine enough day, especially if they get him going in the passing game. Still, I’m not expecting him to be back to his high-end RB1 ways anytime this season. Elliott should be looking at another RB2 finish in Week 14.