Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Zay Jones is entering his second season with the team after a career year in 2022. Last season, Jones hauled in 82 passes … one more than he had during his 43-game career with the Raiders. The 28-year-old was a consistent option for fantasy football managers, but the activation of Calvin Ridley puts Jones’ role/volume at risk.
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Zay Jones’ Fantasy Outlook
Jones was a second-round pick back in 2017 and, in 2022, finally had the type of season fantasy managers had been waiting for.
He was part of the most well-balanced passing offense in the league, as he, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram all cleared 70 catches. Jones led the team in third-down receptions and quickly developed a connection with Trevor Lawrence.
Jones’ value last season (WR29) came courtesy of consistent work, as he saw at least five targets in 13 of 16 games, cracking double-digit looks on five different occasions. He was the team’s primary perimeter option (74.4% of his targets came when lined up out wide), while Kirk dominated the slot.
Outside of Ridley, this offense is very similar to the unit that rounded out 2022. The team did spend a third-round pick on RB Tank Bigsby, and the expectation is for this backfield to see more targets than a year ago as a result. Part of that projection is an iffy offensive line that is again expected to rank among the worst in the game.
Does Calvin Ridley Take Over Jones’ Role?
For my money, yes. As good as Jones was last season, his ceiling doesn’t touch that of Ridley, and I expect the Jags to explore what their new addition is capable of adding to this promising offense.
From 2018-20, Ridley ranked fifth in deep receptions and averaged more fantasy points per deep target than Davante Adams.
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That’s not to say that we know he is an elite deep threat after extended time off, but we know it’s within his range of outcomes. And that potential is worth chasing for a team looking to take the next step.
Given how effective Kirk was in the slot last season, it’s unlikely that Jacksonville works on moving Jones around the formation, leaving a limited role for him when everyone is healthy.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Jones at His ADP?
My pessimism around Jones is not to say he is undraftable. For me, his role is similar to that of Joshua Palmer for the Los Angeles Chargers in years past: capable of the occasional big play, but his value stands to spike should an injury occur.
Palmer caught 72 balls last season, as both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams had some health issues. That’s a mark that I think Jones could reach if called upon due to injuries atop the Jaguars’ depth chart.
That said, in this ADP range (Rounds 11-12), I’d rather pick up a receiver that I believe has a legitimate opportunity to earn an extended role (like Romeo Doubs or K.J. Osborn). While Jones could fall into volume, I don’t see him getting promoted, barring injury, so I’ll pass at his current price.
