Zack Moss or Devin Singletary: Which Bills RB will lead the charge in 2021?

    Zack Moss vs. Devin Singletary — which Buffalo Bills RB will help your fantasy football team win more matchups in the 2021 season?

    When you’re looking to add players to your bench in fantasy football, there are a lot of tough calls you have to make. One of them is which Bills running back to select — Zack Moss or Devin Singletary. Rather than taking both and having to choose each week, let’s look at the pros and cons of each RB to help you decide which one to pick in your fantasy football drafts.

    The case for drafting Zack Moss

    Buffalo drafted Moss in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft. He played 13 games in his rookie season, amassing 481 rushing yards on 112 carries. As a rookie, these numbers weren’t stellar, but they do tell us something.

    The Bills didn’t trust Singletary with the RB1 role heading into the draft

    The old adage goes something like, “We don’t know what teams are thinking until they tell us.” The Buffalo Bills pretty much told everyone that they didn’t trust Singletary to carry the load when they drafted Moss the very next year.

    Both running backs are almost identical in terms of size and speed. When looking at their Relative Athletic Scores (RAS), which refers to their measurables entering the league, the meme of Spider-Man pointing to himself immediately comes to mind. The only measurable that was noticeably different was Moss’ weight.

    Moss is still technically the bigger back

    Moss came into the league at 223 pounds against Singletary’s 203. The Bills’ official website lists Moss at 205 and Singletary at 203. But I think there’s some fuzzy math going on there. When you look at the two, you can’t necessarily tell if he’s 20 pounds bigger or not, but he sure plays like it.

    The two are pretty much the same running back stats-wise

    Now that they weigh the same, there’s not a single thing on paper that differentiates the two. Moss generated 4.6 yards per touch to Singletary’s 4.9 last year. When both were in the lineup, Moss scored 7.8 PPR points per game while Singletary produced 8.2. Moss averaged 4.3 yards per attempt to Singletary’s 4.4.

    The only visible difference in their 2020 numbers is that Moss missed three games during the regular season due to a toe injury. He made up for it by scoring more touchdowns, which greatly helped him catch up on Singletary in terms of total points. Overall, the case for Moss is fairly thin. But what about his teammate?

    Why you should wait and draft Devin Singletary instead

    While the case for Moss was lacking, the case against him is pretty strong. Not only did Singletary play in all 16 games last year, but he was also the clear RB1 on the team.

    Singletary was the Bills’ leading rusher in 2020

    Singletary rushed a team-leading 156 times for 687 yards and scored 2 touchdowns last year. He also caught 38 of 50 passes for 269 yards as a receiver. Moss record 14 receptions for 95 and a touchdown, but Singletary was still the clear-cut winner on the stat sheet for 2020.

    That being said, the player with the most rushing touchdowns on the Bills wasn’t even a running back — it was quarterback Josh Allen. This is often what we hear as the downside to drafting either Bills RB. Neither of them has enough upside to warrant taking them early in drafts. But is that really the case?

    Singletary has a slightly lower ADP

    In terms of PPR ADP, Singletary is coming off the board about five picks after Moss. Moss is going as the RB34 (well within the RB3/flex conversation) and Singletary is going as the RB39. It is undoubtedly a small distinction, but given their 2020 output, I’m not sure I follow the logic here.

    Singletary finished 2020 as RB31 overall in PPR scoring. Moss finished as RB46, largely due to him missing games. When looking at points per game, Singletary drops to RB43, and Moss falls to RB53. Clearly, neither is exciting as long as the other plays.

    Moss’ injury history

    This is where the fog clears, and the answer becomes somewhat visible. Based on everything we’ve seen and all of the data we have, either running back is worth rostering if the other gets hurt. So far, Moss is the one with the riskier injury profile.

    Moss missed three games during the season due to a nagging toe injury. In those three games, Singletary scored an average of 13 PPR points. He saw his rushes per game go from 8.8 to 14. Furthermore, his receptions and receiving yards went up. Without Moss there to spell him, Singletary was given a larger role.

    Moss’ injury concerns don’t end there, however. In the postseason, Moss missed both the Divisional Round and AFC Championship Game due to an ankle injury. He didn’t do badly in the one game he played, but he didn’t stand out much either. Moss scored 8.7 PPR points in his one game, while Singletary scored 18.7 across all three of his. It’s a small sample size, but it leads to another adage I follow, “The best ability is availability.”

    I’m just not sure I can trust Moss to be available week in and week out on Sundays. Singletary’s clear RB1 usage, lower draft cost, and better health history make him the Bills RB I’d rather have in fantasy for 2021.

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