If you’re looking for XFL DFS picks for Week 4, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended DraftKings lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside. Whatever you decide, good luck.
XFL DFS Considerations
The first four recommended lineups for the 2023 XFL season have done well. Week 1’s DFS offering finished in the top 5%-7% of tournaments, while our proposed Thursday night slate for Week 2 scored inside the top 1%. The Week 2 Sunday recommendation finished in the top 5%, while Week 3’s lineup scored in the top 15%.
What’s happening here? As shared each week, there’s plenty of both luck and skill involved. We can’t control for luck, but we can apply data-driven intel to increase our odds for success. While researching 100+ XFL skill-position players ahead of this season, I drew a few conclusions, which have been applied to each of our first three DFS slates:
(1) Quarterback play would be more erratic than in the NFL, with lower ceilings across the board.
(2) The looseness of running back depth charts made betting on RBs risky.
(3) Wide receiver depth charts were largely irrelevant, as the opening weeks would determine which supposed No. 1s were actually No. 3s or No. 4s and which supposed tertiary options were actually target friendly.
MORE: What Is the XFL? | XFL Schedule
I stuck to these principles in each of the first four DFS slates, and I’m continuing to stick with them in lineup No. 5. We’ll continue to steer clear of players whose exorbitant costs seem tied to their NFL experience — guys like Marcell Ateman and Martavis Bryant, who aren’t earning enough targets to justify their expense.
Big picture: I’m taking a cheap flier at RB and loading up with high-ceiling receivers. Max Borghi ($9,300), Abram Smith ($8,400), and even a healthy Morgan Ellison ($6,900) might shine in Week 4. (Of course, if Ellison ends up sitting, the $3,300 T.J. Hammonds would become a fascinating dart throw.)
The key here is that I want to save funds for players with 20+ point potential. No running back — not even Borghi — can give me even remote odds of hitting 20+ points. In fact, Borghi and Brian Hill are the only RBs to hit 14+ points in a game this season, with Hill leading the way at 18.1 points last weekend.
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Even more interestingly, a QB has scored 19+ points 11 times, while a WR has hit that mark eight times. So on average, 3.7 QBs and 2.7 WRs have netted more points each week than any other RB has scored in any week. That’s why snagging an elite QB and top-flight WRs are far more important than starting a comparably priced elite RB.
Because we’re not interested in crawling the victory. There are several points available for the taking, so let’s load up at positions that tend to yield the most points.
Top DraftKings DFS Picks for XFL Week 4
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “XFL Classic,” which includes one QB, one RB, two WRs, two Flex players, and one D/ST.
QB Ben DiNucci, Sea Dragons ($10,800)
As usual. Ben DiNucci was one of my two favorite DFS quarterbacks during the preseason, and he’s come through in the league’s most pass-friendly offense. Sloppy mistakes (including turnovers) have upended this team at times. But we can always count on a lot of throwing by DiNucci, and his surrounding uber talent does the rest.
RB Ryquell Armstead, Defenders ($4,300)
I’ve been tempted to chase points and pick Houston’s Brycen Alleyne ($3,400). Instead, I’ll play it safer with the higher-usage Ryquell Armstead versus a Vegas defense yielding 4.6 yards per carry. While Armstead’s muted role in the passing game is concerning, I’m envisioning 8+ points, making him worth the small investment.
WR Jontre Kirklin, Roughnecks ($8,900)
Chasing points, but not exactly. Jontre Kirklin was already an elite receiver before breaking out in Week 3. He’s now third in XFL receiving yards while reeling in 13 of 14 targets. That’s an incredible feat. As Brandon Silvers’ top weapon, and facing the free-falling Guardians, Kirklin should do just fine.
WR Hakeem Butler, Battlehawks ($8,300)
For context, Josh Gordon ($10,600), Jahcour Pearson ($10,300), and Jeff Badet ($9,700) are (as you can see) quite expensive. Choosing one of them would require us to downgrade somewhere else. I’ve gone through many variations, and keep coming back to Hakeem Butler in a lineup with no financial wiggle room. On a good day, he can produce elite numbers at only a near-elite price.
Flex: WR Blake Jackson, Sea Dragons ($7,500)
After four straight times using Sal Cannella, I’m now fading him. He’s simply gotten too pricey ($7,800). Instead, let’s roll with the similarly “great” Blake Jackson. Despite serving as a third wheel in DFS behind Gordon and Pearson, he’s tied for third in the league with 22 targets. Plus, we cannot ignore Jackson’s stellar 82% catch rate.
Flex: WR Cody Latimer, Guardians ($5,600)
Last week, Cody Latimer cost only $4,100. But the market is catching on, contributing to a rapidly rising price tag. Still, we can afford him. I like that Orlando probably will need to throw a lot to keep pace with the high-flying Roughnecks.
D/ST Battlehawks ($4,100)
I just called an audible. With $4,600 remaining, I was planning to pick the $4,600 Defenders. But they’re facing Brett Hundley, whose running prowess makes me nervous. Instead, let’s lock down the Battlehawks at home against an overrated 2-1 Arlington squad with a subpar running game and a questionably talented quarterback.
