The WR start/sit debates can rage for hours and, often, the longer you think about it, the more difficult they become. Fantasy football managers who attempt to take the emotion out of it and evaluate the data are the ones who tend to have the most success. At the very least, you have a consistent process to fall back on — or you can choose to rely on me.
Many like that option. I’ll take the blame if it goes sideways, and you can victory lap otherwise!
What should you make of the fringe options at the position this week? I’m glad you asked.
Data from TruMedia, unless stated
Which Wide Receivers Should Fantasy Managers Start in Week 2?
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (vs. TB)
We said it all offseason and it’s always nice when things work out. Williams owns a rare skill set, and he saw his snap shares spike as last season came to a close. Ending with positive trends is never a bad thing, but it should be viewed as especially predictive when it comes to a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Detroit is nothing short of a perfect spot for a player like this, and that is why I’m not hesitating to rank him as a top-30 option this week (and moving forward). Williams isn’t the only game-breaking receiver in the league, but he might be the only one who plays on a fast track, with a pocket-locked quarterback, in an offense that has elite target earners in the short-and-intermediate areas.
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His 32.1% target share from Week 1 may be his high-water mark for the season, and that’s OK. No one is going to argue with plenty of opportunities, but he doesn’t need them in order to pay off (the way Chris Godwin does, for example). He simply needs to be on the field (85.2% snap share on Sunday night, a career-best by 13 full percentage points) and threatening defenses.
Amari Cooper might be a better all-around receiver. Stefon Diggs could probably claim the same, and I think Brian Thomas Jr. has a better shot to lead his team in targets at any point during his career than Williams. Don’t care. This is a production-based business, and this perfect spot against a defense that excels at stopping the run isn’t slowing down my optimism – give me Williams over all of those options this week.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at DET)
Everyone in this Bucs offense ate last week thanks to Mayfield’s performance (check out our weekly NFL QB rankings – I think there’s a decent chance the performance he put on tape might prove to be the best we see all season!), but was that more of a statement about Washington’s defense?
Whenever a big game like that happens, I prefer to look at the usage numbers as opposed to the box score. Godwin was used in the slot 53.2% of the time, up from 33.3% last season, a great sign for his status as a weekly Flex option given the value of those looks.
Of course, with that role comes some compromising. His aDOT stood at 10.3 in 2023 but was just 4.4 in Week 1. That’s not a deal breaker for me, but it does limit his per-target upside against defenses that aren’t allergic to tackling.
The next month looks pretty good to me for Godwin (DET-DEN-PHI-ATL), and that’ll more than likely keep him inside my top 30 at the position over that stretch. But after that?
The month following that (Weeks 5-10) is brutal and is something I’ll be looking to avoid. Play Godwin now and take his consistent production to the bank, but don’t get too tied to it – moving him as September comes to a close is my current plan of attack.
Which Wide Receivers Should Fantasy Managers Sit in Week 2?
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (vs. IND)
Reed is averaging 19.1 PPR points per game over his past nine contests, a mark that would have been WR6 last season between Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua. He also reached 15 PPR points in eight of those contests.
This kid is the real deal and is deserving of the WR1 label for the Packers. He’s a WR2 for fantasy purposes despite a WR3 ADP this summer.
As bullish as I am on the skill set (he looked a lot like Green Bay’s version of Rashee Rice or Zay Flowers in Week 1), the fact of the matter is that we don’t know what this offense is going to look like with Willis under center.
My gut reaction is to assume that the structure of this offense still slants in favor of Reed over his teammates in terms of target hierarchy, but I’m far less confident entering this week than I was entering the season. I’m also less confident, obviously, in the value of those looks.
The Colts allowed 25+ fantasy points to a WR1 five times last season, a sign that they struggle to stop top options. I hate to say it, but for the time being, I’m treating Reed in a similar fashion as Diontae Johnson – a player whose raw talent ranks higher than his projection. He is currently outside of my starting tier at the position.
Like Love, don’t make any rash decisions here. You want to hold onto a player like this. If you don’t roster Reed, you might be able to lowball a trade offer to improve your overall depth.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s breakout at the end of his rookie season (Weeks 13-18):
- 26.6% points over expectation, 2.07 FP/target, 65% slot
Reed down the stretch of his rookie season (Weeks 11-18):
- 33.7% points over expectation, 1.99 FP/target, 66% slot
Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks: Doubs was the first Packer with multiple catches in the Week 1 loss, and he led the receiver room in routes with 33. Watson had 27, and Wicks had 16. Watson saw three end-zone targets against the Eagles, while Wicks was consistently used in two-receiver sets.
The point is that we didn’t learn nearly enough to incorporate any of these options into the starting lineup conversation. That would have been my take if Love was under center, and, of course, with him sidelined, I only feel stronger about that label.
Keep an eye on target share and formations this weekend. Maybe this offense will be retooled in such a way that one of these talented options is in an advantageous spot with Willis taking snaps.
Maybe.
Even if you believe this occurs, you’re taking this week off to evaluate.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans (vs. NYJ)
Week 1 was the Levis-iest Levis game that a Levis receiver ever did have for Ridley.
There’s the Puka Nacua path, before getting hurt, from Week 1 that can net 8-9 fantasy points (catch all four targets with 17 total air yards). And then there’s how a Levis target gets there.
- 7 targets
- 160 air yards
- 8.0 PPR points
There were only four instances last season in which a player reached 160 air yards on no more than seven looks, and it’s not exactly a list of options that fantasy managers go out of their way to play: Courtland Sutton, Christian Watson, Alec Pierce, and Jalin Hyatt.
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With Hopkins at less than full strength, the target count could remain tempting, but you need to be aware that there is an incredibly wide range of outcomes, especially against a strong defense in what projects as a low-possession game.
Hopkins is only going to get healthier, and I think there’s a better chance that Ridley sees his target count dip in a significant way than his aDOT declines and gives him the ability to be a reliable option.
He’s not a top-35 receiver for me. I’d rather take a deep threat in an offense I trust more (Rashid Shaheed) or even a fill-in option like Demarcus Robinson.