Winners and Losers From Brandon Aiyuk’s Contract Extension: 49ers Keep Brock Purdy’s Favorite Weapon, Steelers Miss Out on WR1, and More

At long last, the Brandon Aiyuk saga is finally over … but with a much different resolution than most would have expected a few weeks ago.

After months of trade rumors, Aiyuk is signing a long-term extension to remain with the San Francisco 49ers. He’s reportedly agreed to a four-year extension worth up to $120 million that will keep Aiyuk in San Francisco through 2028.

After staging a training camp hold-in, Aiyuk was linked to trades involving the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, and Cleveland Browns. At times, it seemed like Aiyuk was all but out the door in San Francisco, but the defending NFC champions ultimately retained one of their top offensive weapons.

Why did Aiyuk and the 49ers reverse course? What does his return to the Bay Area mean for Brock Purdy and Co.? Will the Steelers or Patriots try to acquire a different wide receiver? Let’s dive into all those questions and examine the ripple effects of Aiyuk’s new contract with the Niners.

Fallout From Brandon Aiyuk’s 49ers Extension

Winner | Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk is now tied for the fifth-highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL with Tyreek Hill, and his extension is proof of concept with regard to his pro development. While Aiyuk was the first-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Arizona State product was hardly an instant success in San Francisco.

Brandon Aiyuk’s extension is four year, $120 million. https://t.co/WsNjA5w9nB

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 29, 2024

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is notoriously hard on rookie receivers, and Aiyuk was no exception — at least, initially. But unlike other San Francisco players who could never quite work themselves out of Shanahan’s doghouse, Aiyuk eventually emerged as one of the franchise’s best players.

He broke out with a 1,000+ yard campaign in 2022 before becoming one of the NFL’s best all-around receivers in 2023. Aiyuk earned second-team All-Pro honors last season after posting a 75-1,342-7 line. Few pass catchers rivaled Aiyuk’s efficiency; he joined Tyreek Hill and Nico Collins as the only wideouts with three-plus yards per route run in 2023.

Winner | San Francisco 49ers

From a macro-view, an Aiyuk trade would have been an unprecedented transaction.

Most NFL teams wouldn’t feel comfortable trading a superstar this close to the start of the regular season. And the 49ers aren’t just any NFL club — they’re widely considered the NFC’s best team and might have the top roster in the entire league.

Shanahan’s squad was a few plays away from beating Patrick Mahomes in two of the past five Super Bowls. They’ve appeared in three straight NFC Championship Games. Their over/under for 2024 is 11.5, tied with Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs for the NFL’s highest win total.

The 49ers are squarely in the Lombardi conversation. Barring a Godfather offer, why should they have traded one of the best players in Aiyuk?

Sure, as we explored earlier this offseason, San Francisco will eventually face a salary-cap conundrum, especially once Purdy signs what will likely be a $65+ million extension. The 49ers have a lot of stars, and no NFL team can keep its core intact in perpetuity.

However, Purdy still has two years remaining on his rookie contract. NFL rules prevent the 49ers from extending his deal until after the 2024 season. Even then, Purdy’s extension wouldn’t kick in until the 2026 campaign; with a frontloaded deal, he might not have colossal cap hits until 2028.

General manager John Lynch can find a way to make this work financially. Keeping a WR1 like Aiyuk and taking another shot at the Super Bowl was the right course of action for San Fran.

Winner | 49ers QB Brock Purdy

Aiyuk has been Purdy’s favorite weapon since the former Mr. Irrevelant entered the 49ers’ starting lineup in 2022.

Purdy finished at or near the top of almost every passing leaderboard last season. While he’s clearly a talented quarterback, he’s also been assisted by Shanahan — one of the best play-callers in NFL history — and a bevy of offensive weapons.

Since his ascension, Purdy has added several new elements to the 49ers’ offense, but the most critical might be his downfield aggression. According to TruMedia, Purdy’s average depth of target was 8.6 yards in 2023, while he posted 8.2 air yards per pass attempt.

Although Purdy’s numbers rank near the middle of the league, he’s been more willing to take shots than former San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo. In three full seasons as the 49ers’ starter, Garoppolo never posted an aDOT higher than 7.8; Jimmy G averaged just 6.9 air yards per attempt in those campaigns.

Purdy’s connection with Aiyuk was crucial in his downfield efforts. According to the 2024 FTN Football Almanac, Aiyuk was the NFL’s most effective receiver on post routes last season. He also put up more yards on deep passes (717) than any 49ers pass catcher in at least two decades.

Loser | 49ers WR Deebo Samuel

Few receivers are as versatile as Deebo Samuel, who can line up wide, in the slot, in motion, or in the backfield. In 2023, he led wide receivers with 8.8 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R). Samuel ranked eighth in YAC/R league-wide, and every player who finished ahead of him played running back.

However, the 28-year-old Samuel is two years and two months older than Aiyuk, and his physical style of play inherently makes him more of an injury risk.

Samuel has never completed a full slate of games in his five-year career. A fractured shoulder cost him two full games and most of another in 2023, while ankle and thigh issues sidelined him for four weeks in 2022.

While he is signed through 2025, he might be a realistic release candidate next offseason, when the 49ers can save $9+ million in cap space by cutting the 2021 All-Pro.

With Aiyuk back in the fold on a more expensive deal, San Francisco will have to save money elsewhere. In April, the 49ers drafted wide receivers Ricky Pearsall (Round 1) and Jacob Cowing (Round 4), creating a pipeline of potential Aiyuk complements.

Loser | Pittsburgh Steelers

Few teams needed wide receiver help more than the Steelers heading into the 2024 season.

George Pickens has flashed through two NFL seasons and led the league with 18.1 yards per catch in 2023, but the book is still out on whether he’s a WR1. Third-round rookie Roman Wilson (ankle) isn’t practicing.

While 2022 fourth-rounder Calvin Austin III might be ready for an expanded role, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s WR depth chart is comprised of journeymen like Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, and Dez Fitzpatrick.

The Steelers were searching for a genuine weapon and seemed close to finding one in Aiyuk, the darling of nearly every advanced receiving metric. He finished No. 1 in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics in 2023, mainly due to his NFL-best 97 “Catch” rating, and ranked first in receiving DVOA, which measures per-play value over a league-average receiver.

Instead, Pittsburgh is back at Square 1. General Manager Omar Khan can scour the waiver wire for pass-catching depth at roster cutdowns, but there won’t be another Aiyuk-caliber WR on the market or the trade block.

The Denver Broncos’ Courtland Sutton is the only veteran receiver who might be available via trade at this point in the year. Otherwise, the Steelers may have to wait until the 2024 NFL trade deadline to consider theoretically attainable options like DeAndre Hopkins or Tyler Lockett.

Winners | Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase

And then there was one.

You might think we’re joking, but nine of the top 10 highest-paid NFL WRs — Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Hill, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, DeVonta Smith, and Collins have signed extensions since the spring.

Chase, meanwhile, has been sitting out of Bengals practices.

Aiyuk’s new $30 million AAV should only push the top of the WR market up, and Chase stand ready to benefit.

Loser | New England Patriots

Always a bridesmaid, never the bride.

The Patriots failed in their Aiyuk pursuit; as Pro Football Network’s Dakota Randall writes, missing out on WR targets is becoming the rule rather than the exception in New England.

“There was a time when the Patriots could put in minimal effort when recruiting star players. Tom Brady could send a DM, Bill Belichick could flash his Super Bowl rings, and that was that.

Those days are over.

In the last few years alone, the Patriots have come up short in four pursuits of star receivers: Aiyuk (2024), Calvin Ridley (2024), DeAndre Hopkins (2023), and Odell Beckham Jr. (2021).”