49ers Already Facing Consequences of Brock Purdy’s Looming Extension With Brandon Aiyuk Dilemma

The San Francisco 49ers appear to be nearing the finish line on one of the most significant transactions of the NFL offseason.

Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, featured in trade rumors since the spring, may finally be on the move. The 49ers reportedly have Aiyuk trades in place with the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots, each willing to give Aiyuk the long-term extension he’s been searching for.

While Super Bowl contenders like San Francisco don’t typically trade their star players a month before the regular season, general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan are trying to get ahead of the 49ers’ impending contractual hurdle — quarterback Brock Purdy’s eventual mammoth extension.

Are the 49ers Choosing Between Brock Purdy and Brandon Aiyuk?

The 49ers have more salary cap space ($52+ million) than any team in the NFL heading into 2024, but they will undoubtedly face a crunch over the next few seasons.

According to Over the Cap, San Francisco projects to have the NFL’s fourth-least cap space (negative-$39 million) in 2025, when WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, OT Trent Williams, EDGE Nick Bosa, DT Javon Hargrave and LB Fred Warner will each carry $20+ million cap charges.

In 2026, the Niners have the eighth-least projected cap room, even with Deebo and Kittle’s contracts off the books. Bosa’s cap figure will jump to $42 million, Williams will be at $37 million, while Hargrave and Warner will each hit $26+ million.

The 49ers might have cap issues after rolling over their 2024 surplus, even without accounting for potential extensions for Aiyuk and Purdy.

If he keeps playing like he did in 2023, Purdy should be in line to collect a $60 million to $65 million annual average salary on his next contract. Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Jordan Love pace the NFL at $55 million annually, while Dak Prescott figures to reset the market on his eventual deal, setting a target for Purdy to match or eclipse.

However, Purdy still has two years remaining on his rookie contract. NFL rules prevent the 49ers from extending his deal until after the 2024 season. Even then, Purdy’s extension wouldn’t kick in until the 2026 campaign; with a frontloaded deal, he might not have colossal cap hits until 2028.

While keeping Aiyuk — at least for the 2024 season — and taking another shot at the Lombardi seems like San Francisco’s best strategy, Lynch and Shanahan seem ready to trade the second-team All-Pro.

But what if the 49ers took an alternate route and tried to keep their offensive playmakers together while eventually swapping out Purdy for a cheaper option? Can Shanahan turn any old quarterback into one of the NFL’s most efficient distributors?

Could the 49ers (Gasp) Trade Purdy?

We’ve yet to see an NFL team willing to trade a young franchise quarterback on the verge of a market-altering extension and move on to a draft-pick alternative. As long as QB reaches a certain threshold of viability, clubs are generally amenable to a long-term contract.

While playing quarterback roulette might seem like a feasible exercise in theory, it’s more difficult in practice.

Moving on from a known quantity is challenging for NFL teams, even if their incumbent choice boasts limited upside. The optics of trading a sure thing and rolling with an unproven rookie don’t make sense for most decision-makers.

Still, if there were ever an organization with the resources to try this strategy, wouldn’t it be this version of the 49ers?

Shanahan has made his offenses work with less-talented QBs than Purdy, who would still be San Francisco’s quarterback for the next two years in this scenario. To get the most value in a trade, the 49ers would probably want to franchise tag Purdy in 2026, retaining his rights before asking rival teams for trade offers.

Knowing they won’t be paying a QB top dollar, the 49ers could extend Aiyuk and make more serious efforts to keep other significant pieces on their roster. Adding another offensive weapon or defensive playmaker won’t be an issue if San Francisco isn’t paying a quarterback $60+ million per year.

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Assuming Purdy maintains or approaches his current level of production, the 49ers shouldn’t have any trouble acquiring consequential capital in exchange. Sure, some clubs might think Purdy is a Shanahan creation. But other QB-needy organizations would be ready to trade a first-round pick and more for Purdy.

With additional draft capital in hand, San Francisco can move up the board and select Shanahan’s preferred Purdy replacement. While it’s a strategy chock full of risk, the 49ers would be the perfect NFL test case.

To be clear, we don’t think San Francisco is interested in trading Purdy, nor should they — he’s simply been too good as the 49ers’ starter.

Is Purdy a Product of Kyle Shanahan’s Offense?

In 2023, Purdy led the NFL in passer rating, QBR, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate. San Francisco’s league-best skill position group and Shanahan’s offensive scheme certainly helped the former seventh-round pick reach those heights.

But Purdy hasn’t only been productive when placed in the perfect conditions. He’s not simply a point-and-shoot quarterback controlled by his head coach/offensive play-caller from the sideline.

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Purdy has delivered even under adverse circumstances. According to TruMedia, when faced with third-and-7-plus since 2022, Purdy ranks second in passing success rate and third in yards per attempt and EPA per dropback.

What about when blitzed? First yards per attempt and EPA per dropback, third in success rate.

And when pressured? First in yards per attempt, second in success rate, and fifth in efficiency.

Like every other NFL quarterback, Purdy has benefited from play-action passes. However, he still ranks atop the leaderboards without the use of play fakes (first in YPA and EPA per dropback, second in success rate).

There’s no denying that Purdy is aided by Shanahan, Aiyuk, Samuel, Williams, McCaffrey, and other key 49ers. However, he’s been so consistently outstanding in every situation that it’s challenging to label Purdy a system quarterback.