The NFL regular season may be over, but that doesn’t mean fantasy football has to stop. There are several variations of playoff fantasy leagues, DFS leagues, and more still available on DraftKings for us to get in on.
Let’s take a look at the players we’re locking into our DFS Lineups for Wild Card Weekend.
DFS Strategy: Bolting Up With Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey
- QB: Justin Herbert
- RB: Derrick Henry
- RB: Najee Harris
- WR: Rashod Bateman
- WR: Nico Collins
- WR: Ladd McConkey
- TE: Isaiah Likely
- FLEX: Pat Freiermuth
- DST: Chargers
Herbert is the first Chargers quarterback to complete two-thirds of his passes with 280 yards and multiple scores through the air in three straight games (before him, it had been in consecutive games nine times in franchise history). He’s peaking at the right time, and that’s why Los Angeles is a road favorite to kick off the postseason.
The Herbert/Jim Harbaugh tandem has found its stride, and I don’t see the Texans serving as a speed bump. Only the Dallas Cowboys allowed touchdowns at a higher rate when opponents got into goal-to-go situations this season than Houston, giving Herbert (multiple rushing TDs in four of five seasons) a little more upside than meets the eye.
Landing at 14th in PFN’s QB+ rankings, he ranks fourth over the last month of action and has laid the foundation for a productive January.
Even if a cheap rushing score doesn’t occur, there’s a path to plenty of upside. The New York Giants and Carolina Panthers are two passing defenses that struggled. The Baltimore Ravens and Washington Commanders are playoff teams with similar flaws, right?
The Texans allow more yards per completion than all of them, making Herbert a threat to lead this slate in yards. I’ve bet him to go over 230.5 passing yards and under 0.5 interceptions in such a way that a split would break me even.
McConkey finished his rookie season with three straight games north of 85 receiving yards. His six such games match the franchise record for a rookie (2013 Keenan Allen) and this very much feels like only the beginning for a receiver who already is showing the type of route-running chops of a player five years his senior.
I love the versatility we’ve seen from McConkey this season, though I still think his ability to shake free in a flash is his greatest asset. In six of the top-10 pass catcher performances against the Texans this season, the player has posted a single-digit aDOT.
What I like most about Los Angeles’ WR1 is how his value doesn’t hinge on the game script. His volume could take off should the Chargers fall behind, but with a 73.2% catch rate this season, he is a safety valve that can be used to help ice the game as well.
You’re not going to find me fading McConkey much over the next five years. I don’t plan on doing it this postseason, either.
Paying Up For King Henry
With a hefty price tag of $8,200 comes a hefty workload for Derrick Henry. The Steelers’ vaunted defense may be known for bottling up Lamar Jackson to some degree, but not so much for Henry.
Henry has produced 25.2% over expectations against the Steelers this season. While he is more than capable of doing that against any defensive structure, I find it odd that Pittsburgh loaded the box on just 38.5% of his rushes (the rest of the NFL: 50.3%).
Henry has produced 40.3% over expectations in three career postseason games. Given the direction of things, running through worn-down defenses might be standard over the next month.
- Weeks 1-11: 6% of carries gained 5+ yards (11.7% gained 10+ yards)
- Weeks 12-18: 2% of carries gained 5+ yards (17.2% gained 10+ yards)
It shouldn’t be overlooked that Baltimore’s bye came five weeks after Pittsburgh’s. The Ravens are the more talented and physical team with less fatigue and a projected positive game script. There’s always the risk that this game is an ugly AFC North battle like we’ve seen in the past, but Henry is in a great spot, even against a strong defense that has already seen him twice.
Nico Collins: Matchup-Proof
Get in, get out, get on with life. Collins performs in every game and any situation, no matter who he’s facing or what’s on the line.
Collins made a cameo last week, enforced his will (four catches for 32 yards and a touchdown), and started looking ahead to the postseason. We are talking about one of the very best pass-catchers in the game. If his ownership in weekly leagues doesn’t reflect that, I’ll be ready to pounce.
The postseason-long drafts are a little more tricky, as many are picking the Chargers to win this game on the road (including yours truly). That adds obvious risk to a profile that you will have to spend up early on, but it also creates a leverage spot, as the Charger pieces are coming off the board a touch earlier than you’d expect given the general optimism that they could make a run (they are the AFC Packers).
By selecting Collins in a format like that, you not only get his upside, but you get production that would come at the expense of the managers who go with Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, or any other Bolt. From a game theory point of view, I like the idea of drafting Collins at his cost.
This team isn’t going anywhere without him putting big numbers on the board, so if you’re essentially betting on them to win a game or two, rostering their star receiver is the right way to play that.
A Note On Isaiah Likely
With early reports out on Ravens star WR Zay Flowers coming out negative, we like Likely to step up a bit here in this game to fill Flowers’ shoes.
The 24-year-old has caught seven of eight targets for 104 yards and a score against Pittsburgh this season on just 35 routes. That’s a tiny sample, but Likely’s 56.9% snap share and 20.5% on-field target share at least have my interest in this specific matchup.
We know the TE position has touchdown equity given Andrews’ success, and I don’t think the market is valuing Likely’s potential to walk into an advantageous role properly. Given Baltimore’s potential to win multiple games, this is a path I’m interested in going for postseason-long formats.
