Week 10 is here, and as always, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 10 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
A.J. Brown | PHI (at DAL)
A.J. Brown is producing at the highest rate over expectation of his career (+54.8%), which means only this nagging injury can slow him. Early reports suggest that we are not looking at anything serious and that Brown being active for this divisional matchup is very possible.
If Brown plays, you play him. Easy game.
He saw 22 targets against Dallas last season (16 catches for 160 yards and a touchdown), and I’m happy to pencil him in for upwards of a 30% target share again so long as he can go through the week without any sort of setback.
The Cowboys own the worst red-zone defense this season (76.9% of opponent red-zone trips result in scores, the only defense allowing a conversion rate in the 70s), giving me some confidence that Brown can return top-20 production this week even if his reps are limited.
Alec Pierce | IND (vs. BUF)
We remember Alec Pierce and Flacco connecting on a 65-yard score in Week 5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars — move on.
That highlight was fun, but in his last two games with Flacco under center, Pierce has turned 56 routes into 41 unexciting yards. Pierce hasn’t proven to be a strong target earner in his career up to this point, and the veteran QB is far less likely to access his 15.6 career aDOT for those splash plays that Anthony Richardson explored regularly.
The Bills’ stingy perimeter defense is a brutal matchup, so you’re not playing Pierce this week, and I expect that to be the case moving forward.
In a league that is trending toward conservative play-calling, Pierce’s profile is a tough sell. There are better options on your waiver wire right now, and I encourage you to get creative.
Amari Cooper | BUF (at IND)
Amari Cooper has had his fair share of injuries over the past few seasons (two missed games in 2023 and 11 last season), and a wrist injury kept him from taking the field last week against the Dolphins in what was expected to be his third game with the Bills.
It’s been a bit of an uneven start to Cooper’s career with Buffalo, but he’s left enough breadcrumbs for me to feel good about him as a PPR WR2 this weekend, assuming he clears all health hurdles. Cooper only played one-third of the snaps in Week 7 against the Titans (41.7% on-field target share), and while he only earned a pair of looks in Week 8’s win in Seattle, his snap share rose to 50.7%.
If the wrist injury isn’t more serious than being let on, expecting him to be on the field for three-quarters of Buffalo’s snaps isn’t unreasonable. Against a defense that struggles to create pressure, thus allowing opposing pass games to be efficient, this should be Cooper’s best game as a member of the Bills.
Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at HOU)
I can’t imagine I’m alone in considering Amon-Ra St. Brown as a Tier 1 fantasy asset and a true threat to top the position in terms of way-too-early 2025 rankings. St. Brown has scored in six straight regular-season games, something that the great Calvin Johnson never accomplished for this franchise.
Let St. Brown serve as a teaching point. The man is on the short list for the best fantasy receivers in the sport, and he only has one finish inside of the top 10 WRs this season. Of course, he has five top-15 performances, and that’s the lesson — being an elite fantasy option (at any position) doesn’t require the highest ceiling on the board.
St. Brown is as reliable a player as there is in the NFL right now, which is why the team with him in your league is sitting pretty through nine weeks.
Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs. MIN)
Brian Thomas Jr. entered Week 9 as a game-time decision (chest), and while he assumed his normal role (90.2% snap share), he made little impact in the loss to the Eagles and even less in your fantasy box score (two catches for 22 yards). I’m willing to give him a health pass here, though the floor is concerning if you’re planning on trying to ride this rookie to a title (three finishes outside of the top 40 receivers).
Thomas has seen an end-zone target in four straight games, no small accomplishment in a below-average offense. Only three times has a first-round rookie seen an end-zone look in five straight games (Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba), a list Thomas could join this week if Trevor Lawrence looks his way in a jump ball situation with the Vikings bringing an exotic blitz.
Through nine weeks, it is clear that Thomas is the second-most-valuable rookie receiver in our game. While that lands him as a starter in most formats, he still is a first-year player, and this offense is still inconsistent (he’s Malik Nabers with less volume).
Bub Means | NO (vs. ATL)
Bub Means cleared 15 PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 6 and was a speculative add for many managers looking for depth at a position that has been ravaged by injuries. The idea made sense — a fifth-round rookie with a reasonable size profile who entered the league average of 17.2 yards per catch as a collegiate athlete.
Injuries giveth, injuries taketh away. Rashid Shaheed’s injury opened up playing time for Means, and now an ankle ailment has him on injured reserve for at least the next four weeks (three games). Chris Olave’s concussion issues open up an opportunity for pass catchers in this offense, especially with Derek Carr healthy. But Means isn’t the type of player you need to burn a roster spot (or even an IR spot) on as he recovers from this injury in what is a lost season for New Orleans.
Calvin Ridley | TEN (at LAC)
If I had a million dollars for every time I heard “All we need for Calvin Ridley to justify being started is for Mason Rudolph to start,” my life would be no different.
Over the past two weeks, Ridley has been targeted on 31.1% of his routes, a drastic improvement from the 20.1% rate he posted in Weeks 1-7. I don’t think the recent production is here to stay, and this matchup is as good of a place as any for Ridley’s production to fall back into the abyss.
This season, the Chargers have faced the second-fewest deep passes and own the second-highest deep interception rate. I’m comfortable in betting against this passing game, which is why I have receivers like Jauan Jennings and Keon Coleman ranked higher this week.
I value the insolation they get from their respective offenses as more valuable than Ridley’s physical tools.
CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs. PHI)
There are plenty of moving pieces in Dallas these days, but CeeDee Lamb should be relatively immune. That’s not to say that Cooper Rush doesn’t lower the projectable ceiling of maybe the best receiver in the sport, but there’s no real action to make — you’re playing him.
All Lamb did was turn 26 targets into 17 catches, 262 yards, and a touchdown against these Eagles last season. He’s seen double-digit targets in each of his past four games against the divisional rival, a game plan that I suspect to be in place this weekend, even with a different triggerman.
Are we going to get Lamb at a significant ownership discount in the DFS streets?
Chris Olave | NO (vs. ATL)
Chris Olave suffered a scary head injury last week; whenever we are getting updates that are worded as “up and active” as opposed to “aiming to play next week,” I consider an extended absence more likely than an immediate return for a team that is going nowhere.
Olave and Rashid Shaheed saw 58.3% of Derek Carr’s targets during the Week 4 loss in Atlanta (71.1% of their receiving yards), making this a difficult game to project and one that doesn’t look too good for the home team. I’m holding onto him in redraft formats for now and hoping for the best, but understand that it’s possible he won’t impact your lineup for the remainder of 2024.
Cooper Kupp | LAR (vs. MIA)
We are creatures of comfort. We like peanut butter and jelly sandwiches because it brings us back to a simpler time in childhood. We like the holiday season because, for most, it inspires memories of cherished times.
We like starting Cooper Kupp and Christian McCaffrey for the same reasons — and we finally get the opportunity to do so with confidence this week.
Kupp has a 33.8% target share in his two games back from injury, and with the Dolphins ranked 30th in sack rate this season, I have no reason to bet against this Stafford/Kupp tandem.
Kupp is a WR1 for me this week.
Courtland Sutton | DEN (at KC)
The development of a rookie quarterback can serve as a rising tide. Courtland Sutton has posted two of the top 10 yards-per-route marks of his career over the past two weeks. The two-yard touchdown pass from Sutton to Bo Nix was a fun highlight and helped fantasy managers, but the receiving numbers are what have me excited.
Sutton was WR31 or better five times from Weeks 3-9, and that’s what I’m setting as the floor for my positional ranking of him. This is a tough matchup, which is why I have him penciled in as a middling Flex option — but I do like the direction of this profile.
Of note, the Broncos get the Bengals in Week 17. Could Sutton peak at the perfect time?
Darnell Mooney | ATL (at NO)
Darnell Mooney, entering this season, averaged 735 receiving yards per 17 games, with a career-high four touchdown receptions in a season. Through nine weeks in 2024, he has 588 receiving yards and has caught five touchdowns.
Last week against the Cowboys, Mooney hauled in a 22-yard pass in the first quarter and found the end zone from 36 yards out due to a reckless blitz from Dallas. He’s on his way to a career season, and I don’t think it slows against the sixth-worst slot defense through nine weeks.
Mooney in the slot from Kirk Cousins, 2024:
- 18 catches
- 23 targets
- 214 yards
- 3 touchdowns
- 45.5% production over expectation
Mooney is putting together a strong year, with the Falcons ranking 22nd in pass rate over expectation. What if that rate trends toward the league average? Or better? Atlanta’s WR2 is a WR2 in most fantasy leagues — at the very least Mooney is a strong Flex play that you can trust.
Davante Adams | NYJ (at ARI)
Rodgers missed him on a double move to start last week, and as the camera panned to see a baffled quarterback, fantasy managers everywhere got the “here we go again” vibes less than 15 seconds into Week 9.
But what’s this? A connection is allowed to improve with time?
This duo connected on a similar play with under three minutes left to ice the game (37-yard score), and Davante Adams finished with a strong 7-91-1 stat line with a 34.4% target share. Growth isn’t linear, but Adams’ production relative to expectations has consistently spiked in New York (59.5% below expectations in Week 7, 10.7% below in Week 8, and 25.4% over on Thursday night).
I don’t think we are going to get vintage Adams from his peak with the Packers, but a locked-in top-15 receiver is plenty reasonable. Keep reading and you’ll get to my Garrett Wilson analysis – Spoiler Alert: if Rodgers regresses from what we saw in the second half last week, I don’t think it comes at Adams’ expense.
DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. DEN)
Well, Monday night will serve as a moment in time that we come back to if the Chiefs go on to complete their three-peat. Patrick Mahomes said pregame that he wanted to let DeAndre Hopkins do what DeAndre Hopkins does, and he lived up to those words.
After peppering the veteran with looks early in the game, the valuable targets began to come. Down the middle in triple coverage? Check. Designed plays inside the 10-yard line? Check.
Mahomes’ 5.9-yard aDOT is the continuation of a downward trend in terms of his downfield aggression. If that continues, weeks like last for Hopkins (8-86-2) aren’t going to be the norm. But if the future Hall of Famer unlocks a different version of Mahomes, there’s a world in which Nuk is a top-15 producer at the position the rest of the way.
Hopkins is my WR17 this week, and if we get a second straight high-usage role, this will be as low as I have him ranked moving forward.
Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF (at TB)
There are no shortage of moving pieces in San Francisco and while the return of Christian McCaffrey figures to take some food off the plate of Deebo Samuel Sr., he still figures to be involved enough to start in all formats.
In his healthy games this season, Samuel is averaging 7.8 touches per game, a number that I think makes for a reasonable projection with CMC being worked back in and Brandon Aiyuk obviously out of action.
The high-end ceiling is no longer there, but his role in this uber-efficient offense appears to be safe and in the year of receiver injuries, that’s more than enough to garner interest as a WR2 in all formats.
Demarcus Robinson | LAR (vs. MIA)
Regression is a funny word. Math dorks, your humble narrator included, always use it in analysis, but it’s on you when it comes to how you choose to understand it.
Is the player going to regress this week? Over the course of this season? Over the course of his career?
Demarcus Robinson is establishing himself as a spreadsheet breaker, which means I’m going to be wrong about him consistently. Robinson has multiple touchdown catches in consecutive games (the first to do that since Weeks 15-16, 2022), this coming a season after he posted the third-longest TD streak (four straight games) in the NFL.
Is Robinson a historic outlier who excels at finding paydirt? Or is he running as hot as the sun and benefiting from the receiver-elevating prowess of Matthew Stafford?
I think you can guess where I stand, but that 39-yard game-winning touchdown pass doesn’t happen if Stafford doesn’t have the utmost confidence in Robinson. (I’d argue that it also doesn’t happen if Puka Nacua doesn’t get tossed in the second half, but I’ll stop being a stick in the mud.)
You know what you’re chasing if you Flex Robinson and you know that regression math is working against you. If you’re chasing a spike play, I’d rather bet on Joe Burrow by way of Andrei Iosivas or take a chance on a player in a strong offense like Noah Brown with the ability to produce as his team’s WR2.
DeMario Douglas | NE (at CHI)
DeMario Douglas had a pretty 21-yard catch over his shoulder on the first drive last week in the overtime loss to the Titans — his other eight targets totaled 14 yards.
A player like Douglas can hold value, and if Drake Maye truly is the second coming of Josh Allen, the Patriots’ WR might well become his Khalil Shakir with time.
But we aren’t there yet. Not close.
The Bears are the fifth-best defense against receivers this season, and with Maye being more likely to run than force the ball into a tight window, Douglas clawing his way to his fifth top-40 finish of the season is about as high as I can see him finishing this week.
I’d rather roll the dice on a Jalen Coker or Jalen McMillan (presuming health) type than hope for a Wan’Dale Robinson type of line from Douglas.
DeVonta Smith | PHI (at DAL)
The touchdown last week was about as good as it gets: a 25-yard, over-the-shoulder sliding catch that, as the ball was in the air, I got up to go get a drink of water, as I was sure that Jalen Hurts had overshot his target, and that I could maybe it back in time before the next snap.
SMITTY IS NOT OF THIS WORLD 🤯👽@DeVontaSmith_6 | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/PZPAGdLtqh
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 3, 2024
The score was the highlight, but it wouldn’t have happened if DeVonta Smith hadn’t been targeted on a 46-yard Hurts dime earlier in the drive. Smith now has six top-25 performances under his belt this season (the exception hurt: negative two receiving yards) and should be started with confidence, regardless of the matchup.
Last week, three Falcons pass catchers caught multiple passes against Dallas, and all three of them scored. I’ve got both Eagles receivers ranked as top-15 options this week, and I don’t think this will be the last time I enter a week like that.
DJ Moore | CHI (vs. NE)
DJ Moore seemed to leave late with an injury last weekend that deserves monitoring, as this is a receiver who would be tough to start at less than full strength.
- Weeks 1-5: 21.9% on-field target share
- Weeks 6-9: 15.8% on-field target share
We knew the ride with Caleb Williams would be a wild one, and that’s proven out. If we get a clean injury report, Moore will go into the weekend ranked as a fine Flex play for me against the seventh-worst defense per EPA against receivers, but make sure to check back as the weekend approaches.
Drake London | ATL (at NO)
Drake London caught a nine-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter last week against the Cowboys, saving you from a complete disaster — he left the game early with a hip-pointer and finished Week 9 with just two targets.
News coming out of Atlanta paints a rosy picture for their WR1 this week, and that’s encouraging given that London commanded a 35.3% target share when these teams first met in Week 4.
This Saints defense has struggled as much as anyone since that first game, and by trading Marshon Lattimore on Tuesday, things aren’t looking up (Kool-Aid McKinstry is dealing with a hamstring injury as well).
London isn’t Justin Jefferson, but Kirk Cousins is using him in a similar way. That means you lock him into starting lineups the second we get confirmation that he’s good to go.
Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at ARI)
Woah.
Last Thursday night, Garrett Wilson was down-right special (9-90-2). From invoking memories of Odell Beckham Jr. to one of the better QB/WR placement/catch plays that will never be remembered due to the aforementioned highlight, this was the version of the former Buckeye we thought we’d see regularly in 2024.
THROW GARRETT WILSON THE BALL 👏
Any time TD scorer: (+180) ✅
via @nyjets | #JetUppic.twitter.com/oeucAH3nHK
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) November 1, 2024
Wilson put you on a great path to success in Week 9, but this isn’t a Week 9 article, is it?
On the left is Aaron Rodgers’ pass chart from Halloween; on the right is the first eight weeks of this season. He hit on a few big plays, and that’s great, but we are in the business of predicting what will happen in the future and using trends from the past to do so.
Rodgers, Week 9:
- 15.6% of attempts were deep downfield
- 78.1% quick release rate
- 5.8 average depth of throw
Rodgers, Weeks 1-8:
- 23.4% of attempts were deep downfield
- 70.1% quick release rate
- 7.1 average depth of throw
You remember the home-run shots, but in reality, Week 9’s game plan was as conservative and timing-based as any Rodgers has put on film this season. Why am I listing those stats with Wilson instead of Rodgers, you ask?
Because they scare me.
I’m normally a “glass half full” type, but I’m worried that what we just saw from Wilson is destined to be the exception, not the norm. Those Rodgers metrics, to me, reflect a desire to get the ball out of his hands. I think that’s the right approach, I just don’t think it allows Wilson to thrive on a consistent basis, not based on his current usage patterns anyway.
This season, Wilson’s aDOT is 35.2% higher when Davante Adams is on the field than when he’s not. On the whole, that profile is good for the upside but bad for sustainability.
In Philadelphia, they have an inverse situation, but the teaching point remains. Over the past calendar year, DeVonta Smith’s aDOT is 24% higher when A.J. Brown is off the field than when he is on it. In those deeper target situations, his per-target fantasy production has dipped over 33%.
Thankfully, for Smith managers, Brown doesn’t miss much time, so that split isn’t as worrisome. For Wilson, the Jets are only going to put Adams on the field more with time as they attempt to save this season with a very manageable schedule ahead.
Wilson will have his moments moving forward because he’s a great player, and Rodgers proved last week that there is still gas in the tank. However, I’m very interested in testing the trade markets as deadlines approach — this might well prove to be the peak of his 2024 value.
George Pickens | PIT (at WAS)
It seems to be possible that Russell Wilson is capable of unlocking the raw talent that resides within George Pickens. Pittsburgh’s clear WR1 has a 40+ yard reception in both Wilson starts, and while those splash plays aren’t always going to hit, the willingness to explore downfield shots is encouraging.
The Commanders are the third-worst defense by EPA against receivers this season. While they’ve looked better of late, they still have some holes in their secondary, and if the Steelers are playing from behind, Pickens should clear 11 PPR points for a third straight game.
The addition of Mike Williams could prove to lower Pickens’ ceiling with time, but we’ve seen these recently dealt receivers play under one-third of the snaps in their team debut, making this less of a Week 10 issue.
Jalen McMillan | TB (vs. SF)
A hamstring injury (stop me if you’ve heard that before in football as we know it this season) resulted in Jalen McMillan being a late scratch on Monday night. This is a slightly complicated profile as there are more moving pieces than answers.
How healthy is McMillan? What role can a compromised version of him fill this week? What does his target tree look like once Mike Evans returns?
This is a situation to monitor for deep leagues this week. I was encouraged by the metrics the rookie put forth in Weeks 6-8 (19.3% target rate with a 13.9 aDOT and 29.7% slot usage), numbers that I think have a chance to stick or improve as Evans trends toward full health.
That’s not this week, however. McMillan is likely to be operating at less than full capacity against the fourth-best defense at creating pressure — who also happens to be coming off of a bye.
I’m interested in holding McMillan in deeper formats through the upcoming bye, but in tighter leagues, being out of the Flex conversation for each of the next two weeks makes him a cut candidate.
Jalen Tolbert | DAL (vs. PHI)
The idea of rostering the WR2 in this Dallas offense made plenty of sense entering the season after Brandin Cooks scored eight times a season ago. The execution, however, has been less than ideal.
Through nine weeks, only six times has a Cowboy receiver not named CeeDee Lamb scored 8.5 PPR points this season, a sample that would be on the fringe of usable if it was all one player. But there are three different names on that list, making this a fool’s errand to try to chase.
But wait, it gets better. Dak Prescott has been placed on injured reserve and, on Tuesday, Dallas traded for Jonathan Mingo, a younger version of Jalen Tolbert but with more draft capital and more size.
I’m not suggesting that Mingo wins this WR2 job, but he’s another cook in a kitchen that lost all direction with its head chef sidelined. Outside of Lamb, there isn’t a Dallas receiver that needs to be on your roster.
Jameson Williams | DET (at HOU)
I’ll get to it more with Sam LaPorta, but Detroit’s offense has proven to be too efficient for its own good when it comes to our fantasy world. Of course, the Lions couldn’t care less how they score 40 points, which makes their potent offense frustrating.
Williams is set to return from a PED suspension that cost him a pair of games, though he needs to be more than active to earn my trust at this point. In the first two weeks of the season, the explosive playmaker was targeted on 24.7% of his routes, and “2024 breakout star” was written all over him.
Since then, however, that rate has dropped to 10.5%. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen a pair of Kalif Raymond touchdowns, a game where David Montgomery ranked second on the team in receptions, and a week where Isaiah Williams ranked second in targets (don’t feel bad if you don’t know the name; before then, he had exactly zero looks).
I still like the idea of Jameson Williams and what he brings to an ultra-efficient offense. I fear that his field-stretching might mean more to Detroit’s offense than it does fantasy managers, but we get a chance to put that to the test on Sunday night against a defense that faces the fourth-most deep attempts per game (7.9).
Williams is on the low end of my Flex rankings this week, given the wide range of outcomes. Nevertheless, I would call his number if I felt as if I was an underdog in a specific matchup and could forgo some safety for upside.
Jauan Jennings | SF (at TB)
Jauan Jennings sat out before the Week 9 bye with a hip injury, but all reports coming out of San Francisco suggest that he will be back in the mix and ready to assume the 49ers’ WR2 duties.
The 27-year-old proved capable of earning targets earlier this season when pressed into heavier usage. And while I expect Jennings to be a pretty clear fourth option in San Francisco’s passing attack, there is some meat on the bone here if you think the 49ers trend toward the 28 points that sportsbooks have them projected for.
This season, Jennings has turned 15 perimeter targets into 37 PPR points, blending upside with efficiency in the process. If San Francisco elects to kick Deebo Samuel Sr. into the slot, Jennings could prove to be a valuable asset to this offense and a week decider in fantasy circles.
Through nine weeks, the Bucs are the third-most challenged team out wide (15.0 attempts per game). One reason teams go that route is because they’ve had success (TB vs perimeter: 20th in completion percentage, 24th in interception rate, and 25th in touchdown rate).
There certainly is risk involved here, as the 49ers may not need to stray from their stars in this matchup. Nevertheless, I’m Flexing Jennings in a few spots and feel okay about it.
He’s right on that WR30 borderline for me at the moment, ranking ahead of bigger names like Michael Pittman Jr./Calvin Ridley and ahead of everyone’s favorite matchup play of the week in Jordan Addison.
Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at LAR)
I’m not going to say the return of Tua Tagovailoa has been a hindrance on Jaylen Waddle, but it certainly hasn’t helped what is shaping up to be a lost season.
Weeks 3-7 (without Tagovailoa):
- 18.8% target share
- 16.7% red-zone target rate
Weeks 8-9 (with Tagovailoa):
- 13.1% target share
- 11.1% red-zone target rate
We are clearly dealing with tiny samples here, which is what keeps Waddle in the Flex tier. Miami’s offense as a whole is functioning at a higher level, and that rising tide has the ability to, eventually, lift all boats.
The Rams allow the sixth-most yards per play this season, so maybe this is the perfect get-right spot. However, their specific deficiencies line up better for Tyreek Hill (keep reading).
Waddle’s first target in Week 9 didn’t come until the fourth quarter, and due to a funky final play, he ended with negative four receiving yards.
Jaylen Waddle -3.5 fantasy points pic.twitter.com/vEUnRTlP0d
— Chives (@jarrett_daveler) November 3, 2024
I’m preaching patience over panic in this situation, though I think the best-case scenario moving forward might be a boom/bust receiver more than a safe option that you can count on weekly.
Jordan Addison | MIN (at JAX)
Jordan Addison had a strong rookie season, but he’s yet to show much in the way of growth (under 13% on-field target share in three straight games). That has proven prohibitive for him to develop into a consistent option.
Addison has been a viable option three times this season and could, in theory, make it four with a matchup against the most forgiving defense in the league in terms of receiver production. However, I’m operating with caution.
Jalen Nailor scored last week (his fourth of the season), but with T.J. Hockenson working his way back to a full-time role, there’s simply more risk than reward. Holding onto Addison is acceptable for now, though with bye weeks in bulk coming, you may be forced to make a difficult decision — cutting ties should be viewed as an option.
Josh Downs | IND (vs. BUF)
I was (wrongly) optimistic about Michael Pittman Jr. entering this season, but I stand by the thought process. That is why Josh Downs is now occupying the WR2 role in my rankings that his teammate opened the season with.
On-field target share from Joe Flacco, 2024:
- Josh Downs: 36.5%
- Michael Pittman Jr.: 19%
- Alec Pierce: 10.3%
This may feel like a WR committee situation, but the data paints a picture of dominance in the direction of Downs, something I’m very interested in leveraging against the third-worst EPA defense against slot receivers in the NFL this season.
Up to this point, Downs has accounted for 74.2% of Flacco’s slot completions and has produced 15.7% over expectations on those looks. I’m looking for him to be fed early and often this week, resulting in my ranking of him ahead of Deebo Samuel Sr., George Pickens, and other high-profile options at the receiver position.
Joshua Palmer | LAC (vs. TEN)
Joshua Palmer was able to find paydirt from 27 yards out last week courtesy of a busted coverage, a level of production that looked good on your bench/waiver wire. The score was good to see, though I’d caution you about getting too excited.
Palmer’s target-earning metrics are pacing for the lowest of his career (yet to earn more than five targets in a game). With the hierarchy of this offense in flux week-over-week, I don’t think you’re going to get usable weeks on a consistent (or predictable) basis.
Palmer has a catch of at least 24 yards in five straight, and that can put him on your radar in a desperate situation. But this isn’t the type of receiver I want to be counting on if my matchup is expected to be close.
JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. DEN)
JuJu Smith-Schuster has missed consecutive games with a hamstring injury, and the role that he opened October with (seven catches for 130 yards as the primary slot receiver against the Saints in Week 5) is unlikely to be waiting for him when he returns.
The Broncos’ defense checks in as elite in a handful of metrics. I’m not sure a fully healthy Smith-Schuster has a fantasy-relevant role in this offense, and I’m even less sure that the 27-year-old is anywhere close to a full-go.
If your waiver is bereft of talent, staying with Smith-Schuster for the short term is an acceptable decision, as you want visual proof that he has been written out of this offense. Yet, if you don’t have that luxury, moving on for immediate help is also reasonable.
Justin Jefferson | MIN (at JAX)
I made the case for Amon-Ra St. Brown’s consistency placing him atop the WR board for the next 14 months, and Justin Jefferson comes preloaded with similarly consistent production (yet to finish worse than WR21 this season.
The scary part is that there is a clear path to Jefferson’s stock gaining in value. Thus far, the All-Pro is pacing for his best season in terms of production over expectation, remarkable when you consider that his red-zone usage sits at its lowest rate since his rookie campaign.
It must be something about these WR1s in the NFC North — you can’t go wrong!
Keenan Allen | CHI (vs. NE)
Keenan Allen has just one top-40 week on his 2024 résumé and has yet to reach 45 yards in a game with the Bears. He earned 10 targets last week in Arizona, a step in the right direction, and continuing the most positive note you’ll see this week when it comes to the Bears’ passing attack.
Allen’s expected PPR points by week, 2024:
- Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Rams: 5.9
- Week 5 vs. Carolina Panthers: 10.7
- Week 6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 11.2
- Week 8 at Washington Commanders: 11.3
- Week 9 at Arizona Cardinals: 16.4
I have Allen ranked second among Chicago’s receivers this week, and that makes him a low-end Flex option in Germany. But if you’re playing DFS (be it a showdown setting or a contest that lumps this in with the main slate), I can’t imagine that he will garner much interest from those staring at his results.
Allen’s role is worth more than his scoring profile would suggest this season — that makes him a buy-low option to consider.
Keon Coleman | BUF (at IND)
This will be an interesting case study in terms of trust. Josh Allen checked out of a red-zone run last week, opting to throw to Keon Coleman on a slant. The decision was sound — that is until the rookie turned a potential touchdown into a turnover.
“The NFL is a game of inches.”
I hate clichés, but they come about for a reason and some remain true with time. If Coleman secures that pass and scores, with nothing else changing, his weekly finish moves from WR66 to WR24. Coleman’s talent is clear, but so are his inconsistencies.
Amari Cooper hasn’t been on the field enough following his trade to Buffalo to give us a good feel as to how Coleman will be used. There’s certainly risk involved, and that is why I have the rookie ranked third among receivers on this team for the rest of the season.
Khalil Shakir | BUF (at IND)
Targets to Khalil Shakir are essentially freebies for Josh Allen. With improved maturity as a passer, that role is more advantageous this season than prior ones. Shakir has reached double figures in PPR points in seven of eight games this year and has been targeted on over 24% of his routes in three consecutive games.
Not all players in your starting lineup need to offer weekly winning upside. Counting on Shakir is something that savvy fantasy managers have elected to do this season, and I think that is the case again in this spot against a defense that allows the second-highest completion percentage on balls thrown less than 10 yards downfield (79.4%).
Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs. TEN)
Ladd McConkey came into the NFL with a lot less fanfare than his rookie classmates. While only time will tell how that plays out long-term, it’s difficult to argue that he was as NFL-ready as anyone (six-plus targets earned in seven of eight games this season).
The Bolts called his number on their first play last week (16-yard reception) and, as they open up this offense, I think we are more likely to see an increase in usage for McConkey than any sort of opportunity regression.
Chargers’ one-score pass rates, 2024:
- Weeks 1-5: 53%
- Weeks 6-9: 63.5%
The Titans have produced some strong defensive numbers this season, but they cough up 7.8 slot completions per game (26th). That’s enough to greenlight starting McConkey as a WR2 in PPR leagues.
Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs. NYJ)
Marvin Harrison Jr. might prove to be worthy of all the hype we bestowed upon him in April, but for the moment, he’s not producing like a locked-in fantasy option.
Shoot, he’s been on the fringe of roster-worthy since September. From Weeks 5-9, Harrison has one top-50 finish. One. On the long list of receivers with more such finishes over that stretch are Noah Brown, Sterling Shepard, and Van Jefferson. I’m not saying that you’re cutting Harrison. I’m not even saying that, in all spots, you’re benching him, but you need to be considering looking past your priors.
The Jets are a top-five pass defense in terms of touchdown rate and passer rating, making this a tough spot for a struggling player. I have three rookie receivers ranked ahead of Harrison this week as he slides in as a fringe top-30 receiver, sitting behind Khalil Shakir’s elevated weekly floor.
Mason Tipton | NO (vs. ATL)
Can the Yale product weasel his way into the Flex conversation with time? It’s possible, and that makes him worthy of rostering, even if you’re not truly considering playing him in the short term.
With Bub Means on injured reserve (ankle), Rashid Shaheed out for the season, and Chris Olave battling head injuries, there are targets to be earned in this offense. The health of Derek Carr certainly helps for a player who has been on the field for over 75% of the snaps in three straight games.
Tipton scored 10 times on 53 catches during his senior season, giving me some hope that he can show off a nose for the end zone when given the opportunity. At the minimum, there is the potential for a Wan’Dale Robinson-like role (81.3% catch rate on balls thrown less than 10 yards downfield this season, 11.1% on other targets). That has Flex appeal in the right spot.
Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (vs. BUF)
With just two catches on 10 targets over the past two weeks, Michael Pittman Jr. has successfully worked his way out of my weekly top 30 — and I’m late to the party. Heck, I might be the last one to the party at this point.
I was hopeful that the return to Joe Flacco on a full-time basis would help, and it still might, but we have to see him prove it first as Josh Downs has established himself as the top receiver in Indy. Pittman has been targeted on under 20% of his routes in five straight games (2023: targeted on 27.7% of routes), a role that, without much in the way of per-target upside, isn’t going to get it done.
I’m not turning off the lights on MPJ altogether, but he has to sit down and think about what he has done to fantasy rosters through two months.
Michael Wilson | ARI (vs. NYJ)
I’m man enough to admit when I was wrong, and man was this a swing and a miss on my part. Like most, I was intrigued by the upside of Arizona’s offense and how a tall/athletic secondary receiver would fit into the mix.
As it turns out, Michael Wilson doesn’t fit. Not in a meaningful way for us anyway.
Wilson has been on the field for 78.2% of Arizona’s snaps this season, and yet, he doesn’t have a 15-point game on the ledger for 2024. There was a glimmer of hope in Week 5 against the 49ers (five catches on six targets for 78 yards), but it’s been a dumpster fire since — 67 receiving yards and exactly zero of them coming last week on only a single target.
I’ll admit that I was wrong for 2024, though I’m not selling my dynasty stocks (in part because they are worth very little right now). The Cardinals have dialed back his aDOT by 23.4% this season, and that clearly hasn’t worked.
There’s a path in which Arizona puts Wilson in a position to be a fantasy asset with time — that time just isn’t 2024.
Mike Evans | TB (vs. SF)
Until I hear otherwise, I’m operating under the assumption that Mike Evans’ serious hamstring injury will keep him sidelined through the Week 11 bye.
- Week 12 at New York Giants
- Week 13 at Carolina Panthers
- Week 14 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 15 at Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 16 at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers
The injury is obviously annoying and could result in your fantasy team struggling to make the playoffs. However, if you can tread water during Evans’ absence, it would appear clear that you’ll be positioned to make a run.
We saw Tampa Bay move heaven and earth last season to get Evans to 1,000 yards for the 10th consecutive season. If such a push happens this season (665 yards to go with, at most, seven games left on his 2024 ledger), you’re going to be thrilled to have him on your roster.
If you have a winning team and the Evans manager is fighting for his/her life, you’d be wise to leverage that in the form of a trade offer.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN (at LAC)
Touchdowns aren’t sticky for most. That’s the case even less often when the team rarely scores. But every once in a while, we get a player like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — a spreadsheet-breaking, logic-defying outlier.
Fun stuff.
Westbrook-Ikhine has now scored in four straight games — an undrafted player has had a longer streak before turning 28 years old only four times since 2016 (Robert Tonyan, Tyrell Williams, Robbie Chosen, and Allen Lazard). That’s an ultra-cherry-picked list, but it’s impressive nonetheless.
In those four games, the Titans have mustered just 33 points on non-NWI touchdowns. To call this profile thin would be undershooting it; Westbrook-Ikhine has seen just 16 targets over this stretch.
I said it last week and was wrong, but I’m doubling down. You’re chasing production if you’re locking in Westbrook-Ikhine, and I think it burns you sooner rather than later.
Nico Collins | HOU (vs. DET)
It’s not crazy to call Nico Collins a top-10 receiver in the NFL, right? He has 154 targets since the beginning of last season as he continues to develop, a level of volume that could easily be achieved within a single healthy season if you consider him among the game’s best (nine receivers cleared that number in 2023 alone). On those 154 targets …
- 112 catches
- 1,864 yards
- 11 touchdowns
Those are similar raw numbers and superior rate numbers to what CeeDee Lamb did last season. You’ll want to monitor the status of Collins’ hamstring (I’ll update this piece daily, so just bookmark this and check back as part of your nightly routine), but barring setbacks, he’ll be locked into the many lineups in which I have access to this star.
Hear me out
Top Row: Stroud's season numbers
Row 2: With Collins on the field
Row 3: Without Collins on the fieldWhat if HOU finishes 13-4 (7-1 ROS)?
"Moment" games remain with DET, KC, BALHis value has been proven over the last month. What if he shows out? pic.twitter.com/sIoEqh3HuM
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) November 1, 2024
Noah Brown | WAS (vs. PIT)
Noah Brown’s name is on the radar for some because of the Hail Mary catch, but you’re chasing a ghost if you’re trying to nail down who is the WR2 in this offense.
The WR2 role is an interesting one and will serve as a research project during the offseason (what allows Darnell Mooney to thrive in Atlanta but not offenses like Washington and Dallas?), but in the short term, it’s clear that we can’t count on any receiver not named Terry McLaurin for the Commanders.
Remove that tip-drill Hail Mary and Brown is averaging 6.8 PPR points per game. Not only is that an unappealing number, but even if that number is enough to catch your interest due to the trajectory of this offense, there are three players in that range that I much prefer this week and moving forward (Jalen Coker, Dontayvion Wicks, and Andrei Iosivas).
Brown was on the field for just 50% of Washington’s snaps last week in New York (his lowest since Week 2), and that regresses the projectable range of outcomes to such a level that he need not be rostered in standard-sized leagues.
Parker Washington | JAX (vs. MIN)
Parker Washington earned a 20% target share and racked up 103 air yards last week as he seems to be the Jaguar in a position to benefit most from Christian Kirk’s season coming to an end in Week 8.
Does that mean he’s a must-add? I wouldn’t go that far, but this is the type of player I make a habit of stashing this time of year with the hope that he pays dividends when it matters most. Jacksonville is an underdog or favored by fewer than two points in seven of their final eight games, a script that makes this waiver wire add an interesting option coming down the stretch.
Trevor Lawrence clearly hasn’t developed the way we’ve all hoped, though he is still capable of putting together 60 good minutes here and there, something that makes a player like Washington appealing if you’re stuck.
The Jaguars play in Las Vegas on Dec. 22 (Week 16) — that matchup alone makes him a worthwhile addition to see where this goes.
Puka Nacua | LAR (vs. MIA)
This knee injury seems to be a pain tolerance issue, and nothing we’ve seen since his return to action (13 targets on 40 routes run) suggests that Puka Nacua can’t produce top-20 numbers moving forward.
Of course, if he’s getting tied up with defensive backs and getting ejected consistently, the math changes. Nacua killed you last week due to the early departure, but that’s nothing to take with you into Week 10. No suspension or anything is coming, which means that I’m entering this week with the same level of confidence that I had in Nacua a week ago, and that’s not far off from my preseason take.
This season, in his limited reps, Nacua’s on-field target share is higher this season (30.4%) than last (27.6%), a note that is more impressive when you consider a 20.2% rise in aDOT. This is an ultra-condensed offense, and you’re getting one of the three valuable pieces — enjoy the ride!
Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs. TEN)
After missing two games with an ankle injury, Quentin Johnston posted a 4-118-1 stat line in Cleveland and rewarded you for the bold decision to plug him in right away.
Now, let’s pump the breaks a little bit here. In the win, 61.8% of Johnston’s points came on a single play that featured a broken coverage at the highest order, numbers that count in the Week 9 box score, but not ones that tell us much of a story when it comes to protecting future output.
On the bright side, Justin Herbert seems to have gained Jim Harbaugh’s trust and is being unleashed. On the less bright side, Herbert seems to have gained the trust of Harbaugh, as he is being unleashed.
Let me explain. Adding volume to the Chargers’ passing game is a step in the right direction, but Herbert operating at his full potential is going to result in target dispersion patterns like what we saw on Sunday — nine different players were targeted on his 27 passes.
You can be excited about what you saw in your box score from Johnston, but let’s not forget that after showing flashes in September this is the same player that totaled 31 yards in two games prior to the ankle injury.
The Titans own the best EPA defense against receivers this season, and that has me trending away from Flexing Johnston this week. I’m likely to be lower on him than most moving forward because I have Ladd McConkey labeled as the premier target earner in LA’s low-volume offense, with the other options being weekly coin flips.
Wan’Dale Robinson is boring, and Jalen Coker plays for the inept Panthers — I have both ranked higher this weekend.
Ray-Ray McCloud III | ATL (at NO)
The injury to Drake London is why Ray-Ray McLoud III is on fantasy radars this week, but it’s important to remember that the receiver position is nothing like the running back position. What Jordan Mason has done in San Francisco this season is great, though it’s not all that rare. Every season, we see backup running backs do a pretty good impersonation of the player he is replacing.
It’s rare to see that among pass catchers — it’s a numbers game. Generally speaking, one running back is featured, but three receivers can be a part of the weekly game plan. That means that the receiver who gets on the field as a result of an injury is, at best, the fourth-best option on the roster, whereas the backup running back is second-best.
That’s an overly complicated way of saying that the London injury doesn’t mean that any one receiver on this team sees a massive spike in their role. McCloud hasn’t been worth your while this season despite playing over 82% of the snaps in eight straight games, and I don’t expect that to change.
If I’m blindly betting on a quarterback/offense to add value to a profile, sign me up for Rashod Bateman or Noah Brown instead.
Rome Odunze | CHI (vs. NE)
I understand that seeing a reasonable point total sitting on your bench is irritating, but it’s important to remember a very simple fact: those are lost points.
Starting Rome Odunze this week doesn’t make up for what you missed out on in Week 9. In fact, you risk making a second mistake instead of acting rationally.
Odunze’s season recap:
- Two games with 100+ yards
- Six games with under 45 yards
- Three games overachieving expectations
- Five games underachieving expectations
The rookie has played at least three-quarters of the snaps in every game this season, and I love what that means for his long-term growth. However, as you can see, you don’t simply get points for being on the field. Odunze has reached triple digits in air yards in consecutive weeks (season: 15.8-yard aDOT), a role that indicates one-off upside more than sustainable value.
Even with four teams on a bye and injuries aplenty, the rookie doesn’t crack my top 35 at the position for Week 10.
Tank Dell | HOU (vs. DET)
Tank Dell’s fantasy production has been stable over the past month (100 yards or a touchdown in three of his past four games) despite plenty of moving pieces around him. He was able to thrive last week against the Jets, turning nine targets into 126 yards while other Texans receivers totaled just 44 yards on their eight looks.
I’m not overly comfortable with Dell filling the WR1 role from a skill-set standpoint, but in this spot, I also don’t like him as the secondary option if we assume Nico Collins returns.
- Cooper Kupp
- Chris Godwin
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- DK Metcalf
- CeeDee Lamb
- Justin Jefferson
- Calvin Ridley
- Jayden Reed
Those are the names of the top-scoring receivers against the Lions this season — all alpha target earners within the context of their specific situations. I’m not sold on Dell as that, regardless of the role he fills.
I’m avoiding chasing his production from Week 9 if I can. This is a boom-bust profile, but if you need to go that direction, this projected shootout could get you home. Still, there’s a lot of risk to consider, even after a strong performance.
Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs. PIT)
Terry McLaurin scored twice in the first half last week, giving him as many multi-TD games over the past month as he had in his career prior.
There are two receivers to score 15+ PPR points in four straight games this season, both of which are active streaks. The names? Justin Jefferson and Mr. McLaurin.
I’m worried more about the Week 10 value of Washington’s WR1 than the other pieces of this explosive offense. If you remove the Week 4 loss to the Colts, a game in which the Steelers prepared for Richardson but faced Flacco for the majority of the game after an injury, only once has a receiver reached 15 PPR points against Pittsburgh.
Drill down further, and you’ll notice that in the few instances in which this defense has given up production to a receiver, it hasn’t come from the expected source. Josh Downs outscored Michael Pittman Jr., Darius Slayton outscored Malik Nabers, and Jalen Tolbert outscored CeeDee Lamb.
The highs have been high for McLaurin this season, but there have been some lows as well, and I’m worried we could get one of those performances. He’s still a locked-in starter for me this week, but the floor could come into play here, which is why I’m passing in DFS formats.
Tyreek Hill | MIA (at LAR)
I don’t know about you, but it feels very much like the spike Tyreek Hill game is inevitable — and it could come on Monday night. There have been flashes over the past two weeks with Tua Tagovailoa back under center, but Hill’s production has ended almost spot-on with where you’d expect (24.6 expected PPR points vs. 25.2 actual PPR points).
I think that changes this week based on Tagovailoa’s increased comfort, yes, but also this matchup. The Rams are easily the best defense in limiting slot production this season, something that has me projecting a perimeter-oriented Dolphins passing attack in Week 10:
Production with Tua Tagovailoa under center since 2023:
- Hill: 0.4% over expectation from the slot vs. 38.2% over expectation out wide
- Waddle: 4.2% over expectation from the slot vs. 23.7% over expectation out wide
Hill is the unquestioned WR1 in this offense as it is, and given how Los Angeles defends, I’m expecting him to be featured in a significant way. This is the spot you’ve waited three months for.
Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. DEN)
The life of trusting a receiver with a limited skill set can be a stressful one. Put that profile on a rookie and you’re asking for headaches.
With increased awareness, Xavier Worthy would have turned a deep target into 10.3 points in the first quarter of Monday Night Football last week and we are off to the races. Instead, he loses track of the boundary and steps out of bounds before completing the catch, let alone extending the extra foot for the touchdown. A single mistake like that doesn’t submarine the value of a grizzled veteran or a player with a more consistent role, but that’s not the case for a player like this.
Worthy saw only one more target the rest of the game and turned two rushes into negative 10 yards as they tried to get creative with how to best get him involved. His route participation ticked up, a good sign for those still holding out hope that he can stumble upon a spike game with defenses flocking toward DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce. But we’ve yet to see him earn targets with any consistency, and that doesn’t project as likely to change with Patrick Mahomes’ aDOT again on a career-low trajectory.
Keep Worthy rostered in the event that you’re desperate for a single big play, but he can’t be near starting lineups in any other situation.