Former LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier started the 2025 college football season as a consensus first-round lock. Now, he’s entering Day 3 of the 2026 NFL Draft without hearing his name called through 100 picks, a slide that many might have predicted based on his injuries.
The full picture of what went wrong didn’t emerge until the NFL combine in February, when medical evaluations revealed a cyst pressing on a nerve in Nussmeier’s spine. That was the root cause of the persistent oblique pain that plagued him during his last season at LSU.
When Could Garrett Nussmeier Get Drafted?
Former LSU head coach Brian Kelly downplayed the quarterback’s injury during the season, but Nussmeier’s on-field production told a different story. In 2024, he threw for 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. According to PFSN’s CFB QB Impact Metric, he had an impact score of 81.6, ranking 12th at his position in college football.
However, in 2025, Nussmeier threw for just 1,927 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, posting an impact score of 75.9 and ranking 110th among the eligible quarterbacks.
Nussmeier addressed the injury during his pro day, telling reporters the pain hit during routine routes in the air. He has been transparent with NFL teams during pre-draft meetings, and the league does not consider the condition a long-term concern. He was asymptomatic throughout the pre-draft process and won Senior Bowl MVP.
Still, the film from his senior year was too problematic for teams to ignore. Different throwing mechanics, diminished velocity, and gun-shy pocket behavior raised legitimate questions about which version of Nussmeier an NFL team would be getting.
Moreover, Nussmeier has some flaws that the teams in the league are not willing to bet on.
“At 6’1″, 200 pounds, he’s not a prototypically-built QB. He doesn’t have elite athleticism or creation ability, and his arm is middling,” PFSN’s scouting report on him noted. “With average tools, his margin for errorr is slimmer, and this likely relegates to a backup and spot-starter role in the NFL. That said, with the right support and time to reset, he has the requisite mental acuity, and could carve out a career similar to Andy Dalton at his best.”
The broader quarterback market also worked against Nussmeier. With Arch Manning, Dante Moore, LaNorris Sellers, and Julian Sayin headlining what scouts view as a potentially elite 2027 class, quarterback-needy franchises have been content to stockpile future capital rather than force a pick in a thin 2026 cycle.
Teams like the New York Jets, who hold three first-round selections in 2027, have little incentive to reach on a mid-round quarterback project when a franchise-altering prospect could be one draft away.
So far, only four quarterbacks have been drafted this year. Fernando Mendoza went first overall to the Las Vegas Raiders; the Los Angeles Rams selected Ty Simpson with the 13th pick; the Arizona Cardinals selected Carson Beck with the first pick in the third round; and Drew Allar was also drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the third round.
In PFSN’s analyst Ian Cummings’ latest mock draft for Day 3 of the NFL Draft, he projected the San Francisco 49ers taking a flyer on Nussmeier in the fifth round with the 179th overall pick.
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The 49ers currently have Mac Jones as backup to Brock Purdy, but it is widely expected that the former will leave next year in free agency. As a result, there is a path for the LSU product to develop under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, and that could be the best thing for his career.
Under Shanahan, Nussmeier could potentially become a starting-caliber quarterback for another team if Purdy continues to play well.
