Dylan Sampson is one of the best running backs in the 2025 NFL Draft Class, and thanks to his breakout 2024 season, he was widely projected to be off the board by the end of Day 2. While a first-round selection was unlikely for Sampson, he wasn’t even among the four backs selected on Day 2. What could be the reason behind Sampson’s slide?
Exploring Why Dylan Sampson Fell To Day 3 of 2025 NFL Draft?
Sampson spent the majority of his first two seasons as a backup at Tennessee, but he never missed an opportunity to show the team he had what it takes to be a starter. During his freshman season, the 20-year-old had 58 carries for 397 yards and six touchdowns, while also leading the team in yards per carry with 6.8.
He came out hot in his sophomore year in their opening day game against the University of Virginia and had four touchdowns, three rushing and one receiving, in the Vols’ 49-13 win. Sampson got his first start against Iowa in the Citrus Bowl at the end of the 2023 season.
His breakout season came in 2024, his junior year, where he set the school record for single-season rushing touchdowns, with 22, while carrying the ball for 1,485 yards. That record had previously been set in 1929 by Gene McEver. Due to these performances, Sampson was named First-Team All-SEC and earned SEC Offensive Player of the Year.
So, how does a valuable prospect like that slide out of the first round?
The key concern could be Sampson’s below-average size of 5’8″ and 200 lbs, which suggests he might not be able to handle the workload asked of him. He is also inconsistent with ball play security, and allowed the ball to be ripped from him four times in 2024. Here’s what Bleacher Report’s NFL Scout Dame Parson wrote about Sampson’s downside in his scouting report, which is likely the reason he fell to Day 3 of the draft:
“He gives effort, but his frame and strength raise concerns against NFL defenders. He struggles to locate the free runner against blitz packages. Sampson’s undersized frame is not built for the heavy workload he was subjected to at Tennessee. Short-yardage power is not one of his best attributes. He does not push many piles to create lanes in short-yardage situations. He was also underutilized as a pass-catcher for the Vols despite having the athleticism to be a weapon in space.”
However, Sampson possesses an impressive feel for timing, spacing, and blocking scheme and could be selected as early as fourth round on Day 3 of the 2025 NFL Draft.
