In one of the most wide-open Super Bowl races the league has seen in years, the Los Angeles Chargers arrive in January without much noise — and that might suit them just fine. Slipping into the postseason as the AFC’s No. 7 seed rarely inspires confidence, but this version of the Chargers feels far more dangerous than the label suggests.
The path here wasn’t smooth. It tested Justin Herbert, challenged first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, and demanded resilience from a roster that spent much of the season navigating pressure-packed moments. Yet when the dust settled, Los Angeles stood at 11-6, including a respectable 4-2 mark in the unforgiving AFC West.
What Are the Los Angeles Chargers’ Playoff Scenarios?
Now comes the real test. A Sunday night showdown against the No. 2 seed New England Patriots places the Chargers squarely in the underdog role. PFSN’s Playoff Predictor gives them just a 39.8% chance to advance, though sportsbooks see it a bit tighter, listing the Bolts as 3.5-point underdogs rather than a long shot. That gap between perception and possibility is where playoff stories often begin.
If the Chargers can flip the script on Wild Card Weekend, the question quickly becomes bigger than one game. Who would stand in their way next, and how realistic is an unlikely run through the AFC bracket?
As a #7 seed, Los Angeles’ first two opponents are set in stone.
The Chargers will travel to Denver to face the Broncos in the Divisional Round if they beat the Patriots on Sunday. That could be one of the reasons LA rested Herbert and other key starters during a Week 18 loss at Mile High.
Things get interesting if the Chargers get past the Broncos, though. The surviving team of the Steelers, Texans, and Bills would host Los Angeles in the AFC Championship. Jacksonville and Buffalo meet on Sunday, and Pittsburgh hosts Houston on Monday.
The winners of those matchups would play in the Divisional Round in this scenario, where the Chargers go on a streak.
Will the Chargers Host the AFC Championship Game?
One thing is certain. SoFi Stadium will not host its first AFC Championship in 2026.
As the lowest seed, the Chargers’ potential path to the franchise’s second Super Bowl appearance will happen entirely on the road.
Representing San Diego, the Chargers have made four previous AFC Championship games. They’re 1-3 in those contests, with their last appearance (2008) and win (1995) coming over a decade ago. The franchise has only hosted the game once, in 1981, resulting — a loss to the Oakland Raiders.
Jim Harbaugh is 5-4 as an NFL coach in the playoffs, including a Super Bowl appearance with the 49ers in 2013. Justin Herbert is 0-2 in limited postseason action.
