Each year, fantasy football managers have to make tough decisions on the clock between players at the same position in each round.
Those picks can tank a season or help win a championship. One of those decisions comes later in drafts between two second-year quarterbacks with limited NFL experience.
Here’s a breakdown of whether Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy or Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. is the better pick at quarterback in 2025.
J.J. McCarthy 2025 Outlook
ADP: 131.0, QB18
McCarthy was the No. 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after winning a national title with Michigan in 2023. That season, he attempted just 332 passes, completing 72.3% of them for 2,991 yards and 22 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He also added 64 carries for 202 yards and three touchdowns.
He didn’t throw much in college, but when asked to step up, McCarthy delivered. During the draft process, he showed the mental toughness, arm talent, and athleticism to be an NFL starter. The Vikings liked what they saw and drafted him as Kirk Cousins’ long-term replacement. Cousins, recovering from an Achilles tear, was allowed to leave in free agency.
McCarthy was set to compete with Sam Darnold for the starting job in 2024 but tore his meniscus after just one preseason game. In that game, he flashed big-play ability, completing 11 of 17 passes for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Just like that, his rookie season was done.
In his place, Darnold thrived in Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly scheme. According to fantasydata.com, Darnold finished as QB9 in fantasy points per game (18.1), completing 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
Darnold left in free agency in 2025, setting the stage for McCarthy to start, even after a year lost to injury. He still got valuable mental reps in his first year and now steps into a well-built offense with a creative playcaller, an upgraded line, and explosive skill players.
Since O’Connell became head coach, Vikings quarterbacks have averaged a 66.7% completion rate with 4,295 yards, 31.6 touchdowns, and 15.3 interceptions per season. While Cousins (25 starts) led most of that, the numbers also include Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall, and a full season of Darnold.
McCarthy will throw to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones, possibly the league’s best supporting cast for a rookie starter. Minnesota also bolstered its line by signing guards Will Fries and Ryan Kelly and drafting Donovan Jackson in the first round.
If McCarthy brings the same smart, efficient style that made him a first-round pick, he could make an instant impact in fantasy and real life.
His ADP as QB18 is steep, but it might still be a value considering what O’Connell has gotten out of his quarterbacks the past three years.
Michael Penix Jr. 2025 Outlook
ADP: 146.0, QB21
Penix began his college career at Indiana, earning the starting job as a redshirt freshman in 2019. But a string of serious, season-ending injuries limited him to just 17 games from 2019 to 2021.
He showed flashes of athleticism and arm talent but couldn’t stay on the field. In that span, he completed 59.2% of his passes for 3,978 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.
Penix transferred after the 2021 season, landing at Washington with head coach Kalen DeBoer, his former coordinator at Indiana. What followed was an unexpected breakout.
Over the next two years, Penix stayed healthy and rewrote the school record books. He completed 65.4% of his throws for 9,544 yards, 67 touchdowns, and 19 picks. He led the Huskies to a College Football Playoff berth in 2023, won the Maxwell Award, and finished second in Heisman voting.
Despite concerns about his injury history, his arm and athleticism pushed him into the first-round conversation. Many were shocked when the Falcons, who had just signed Cousins to a $100 million deal, took Penix as the fourth quarterback off the board with the No. 8 pick.
Penix mostly sat behind Cousins as a rookie but started the final three games of the 2024 season after it became clear Cousins wasn’t fully back from his Achilles injury.
In those three starts, Penix completed just 58% of his passes for 737 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. But he flashed a strong arm and built quick chemistry with Drake London and Darnell Mooney. During that stretch, he averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game, including a QB6 finish in Week 18 with 26 points.
Penix will start in 2025 in an offense built around Bijan Robinson. The Falcons have a solid offensive line even after losing Drew Dalman and feature two legit receivers in London and Mooney. Kyle Pitts could still be a factor, too, maybe.
He’s going off the board as QB21, which is fair given the small sample size. But if he stays healthy, he’s got the weapons to take advantage of his arm talent.
Should I Draft McCarthy or Penix in 2025?
Both McCarthy and Penix are being drafted as low-end QB2s going into the 2025 season. They have little pro experience but strong support around them.
Given the offensive setup and elite pass catchers, McCarthy is the better pick. He missed his rookie year but showed in college that he can get the ball to his playmakers and stay out of trouble.
Expect Minnesota to lean on Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson to help McCarthy shine in 2025.
