Bo Nix and Kyler Murray are two young quarterbacks in this year’s fantasy football drafts with questions about their ceilings.
Nix was seen as a high-floor prospect who exceeded most people’s expectations, but we aren’t sure how much more room there is for growth. Murray, meanwhile, was an incredibly promising No. 1 overall pick in 2019, but through coaching turnover, injuries, and size issues, we still haven’t seen him ascend into elite status.
So, when selecting a quarterback, does one stand over the other as a superior prospect for fantasy in 2025?
Kyler Murray’s 2025 Fantasy Outlook
It might not be a do-or-die season for Murray, but he’s entering a season in his career that’ll likely determine how he’s viewed throughout the NFL. A full season back from injury, Murray finished as QB10 in 2024, averaging 17.5 points per game. It was a fine finish, but the hope was that his rushing ability, combined with the addition of receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., would catapult him into QB1 range.
Murray’s most significant issue was consistency. Seven of his games resulted in 15 or fewer fantasy points, including a brutal 4.8-point outing against Chicago. His highs were plenty high, scoring an equal seven games above 20 points. For a rushing quarterback, he failed to provide a safe floor for the position and instead became a boom-or-bust player.
Murray hasn’t rushed quite as much as we thought he would. In his four healthy seasons, he blew up in 2020 for 800 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, but hasn’t come close to that peak since, maxing out at around 500 yards and five touchdowns.
It’s a strong boost, but Murray doesn’t have the substantial passing ability to smooth out bad weeks. He’s failed to reach 4,000 passing yards and has a high of 26 passing touchdowns. All of his best play came from that 2020 season, meaning it’s been a rough four years since.
Now we must wonder if there is much more room for improvement. That’ll have to happen internally, as the Arizona Cardinals added little to the offense this offseason.
Murray will work with a pair of potent weapons in Trey McBride and Harrison in his second season, with Drew Petzing entering his third as the Cardinals’ offensive coordinator. More injury luck along the offensive line, continuity with weapons, and a slight increase in rushing output would bring Murray close to that elite range we’ve been waiting for.
Bo Nix’s 2025 Fantasy Outlook
Unlike Murray, Nix was not a popular prospect in the NFL Draft. Despite being taken in Round 1, Nix was the sixth quarterback taken off the board in 2024, and expectations were relatively low for him and a Denver Broncos offense that has struggled for the better part of a decade.
So, it was quite a surprise when Nix managed a QB7 finish despite a weaker receiving corps and non-existent run game. However, the first month was rough.
Nix and the Broncos struggled throughout September, causing him to drop off most fantasy radars. After Week 4, he turned into a strong fantasy asset, scoring under 15 points just three times, and blowing up with big performances against Carolina and Atlanta.
Bo Nix & 20+ air yard throws ⬇️
🔹 2nd most attempts
🔹 4th most completions
🔹 Tied for 4th in touchdowns (9)Oh… and here’s all those throws to some Creed 💪 😎 pic.twitter.com/VMDeexQnid
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) April 18, 2025
The Broncos have multiple young receivers worth keeping an eye on, but their strength for now will be a diverse passing attack rather than relying on a couple of elite options. Evan Engram and J.K. Dobbins are notable improvements from last year, but any significant progress will have to come from Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, or Devaughn Vele.
Nix was also surprisingly spry as a runner. His 430 yards rushing were only 130 behind Murray. Expect this number to be closer to his ceiling, whereas we know Murray’s was near his floor. However, it’s possible Nix can add more than his four rushing touchdowns last year.
What’s important to keep in mind is that Nix and Denver’s offense can both improve, but his fantasy output can still decrease. The Broncos were forced to pass as their run game barely managed to scrape over 1,000 yards between Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. As a team, they finished 23rd in rushing touchdowns with 12, but four of those came from Nix.
Sean Payton teams typically love running. So any improvement from that room could siphon some of Nix’s output.
Overall, Nix’s impressive rookie campaign is quite exciting for fantasy. While there’s plenty of room to improve, natural regression means he may not statistically improve, even with the upgrades around him.
Who Should I Draft in 2025?
This is a difficult decision to make as both players have exciting ceilings with some drawbacks. Murray is undoubtedly the more exciting player of the two, with potentially a pair of elite options to throw to. Nix, however, was far more reliable during the bulk of the 2024 season and has room to improve upon his rookie season.
Typically, I’d favor the more reliable option. Taking Nix ties you to a Payton offense along with an elite offensive line. With notable rushing ability, Nix’s upside week-to-week isn’t much lower than Murray’s.
In Superflex, Nix will be hard to bet against as your QB1. His safety net allows you to bet on a more volatile, higher upside QB2 later in the draft.
However, in 1QB leagues, I think Murray is the better bet. His boom-or-bust style won’t kill you as much as it would in Superflex, but his upside could still win weeks.
Murray’s higher rushing volume also makes him a good bet, especially if he can creep closer to 700 yards than 500. Continuity should help iron out his weaker weekly finishes, especially if Harrison breaks out.
There may not be a bad option between the two, so trust your gut and lean toward the option that better fits your league type.