Week 8 NFL DFS picks for cash games and GPP’s

Before we dive into our Week 8 NFL DFS picks, we should address the elephant in the room, as several games will be heavily influenced by inclement weather. These games are currently forecast to be:

• Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns
• Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
• Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
• New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
• New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

Last week, I mentioned how, in terms of weather, it’s sustained winds you need to be worried about. Cold temperatures and precipitation are not ideal, but not a reason to fade a game. However, games with high sustained winds affect the kicking game and the deep passing game. The latter is clearly not ideal for DFS.

That said, most players will probably share the same thoughts, so in tournaments, we can gain an edge by attacking these passing games and hoping the weather forecast is either inaccurate or it doesn’t end up mattering. Two games stick out to me in my playing “career” where I faded players I liked because of the weather. It cost me a winning week in 2015 Week 3, Bengals at Ravens (I faded Steve Smith Sr. and A.J. Green), and a snow game between the Eagles and Lions that everyone avoided and ended up being a shoot out.

Long term, you’re better off avoiding inclement weather games. However, in a tournament, you only need to be right once to hit that big payday. In cash game formats, I’m going to avoid the bad weather games as much as possible. In tournaments, I will be taking some shots just because I know most players won’t be willing to do so. Without further adieu, let’s dive into what picks we like for this murky Week 8 NFL DFS slate.

Week 8 NFL DFS: Top value picks at each position

Quarterback

The QB position in DFS this weekend is a dumpster fire. Ok, maybe not THAT bad, but there are genuinely no plays I feel comfortable with. That is my first inclination that this might be a better week for tournaments than cash games. At the very least, I’ll probably limit my volume in cash games this weekend.

Russell Wilson ($7800): Wilson is my choice if paying all the way up at the position. Early in the season, there was some doubt that Seattle’s heavy pass rates were not predictive of what their offense wanted to be long term. I think we can put those worries to rest. According to Sharp Football Stats, they have the sixth-highest pass/rush ratio overall (61/39) and rank first in neutral game script pass/rush ratio on early downs (59/41). Seattle has the fourth-highest team total on the slate (28.25) and gets a San Francisco 49ers defense that has not pressured the QB this season (24th in Football Outsiders defensive line adjusted sack rate).

Ryan Tannehill ($6800): Of all the games with inclement weather, as of this writing, Tennessee and Cincinnati seems to be the one with the least worries. High winds could impact the passing game, but Tannehill averages 7.8 intended air yards (IAY) per attempt, the 14th “highest” mark in the league according to NFL’s Next Gen stats. The Titans have a 50/50 pass/rush split on early downs in neutral game scripts, two percent below the league average pass rate.

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The Titans also have the second-highest implied team total on the slate (29.5). Tannehill doesn’t usually push the ball downfield, which will somewhat mitigate the wind factor. He has some rushing upside, which could lead to more rush attempts if he is “iffy” to push the ball downfield. It’s a good matchup all around as well. I don’t feel entirely comfortable playing Tannehill in cash games, but I think it’s defensible if you want to do so.

Joe Burrow ($6200): Burrow’s 8.9 IAY figure will be more detrimental than Tannehill in the same game. However, no one has thrown the ball more than the Bengals up to this point, and Burrow is apt to use his feet. He could get there on volume alone against a porous Tennessee defense.

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5400): This makes me somewhat nauseous to put Garoppolo here, considering the last time we played him (home vs. Miami), he didn’t make it to the third quarter. But, Seattle is an exploitable defense in all regards, and San Francisco has a respectable 25.75 implied team total (seventh highest on the slate).

Running Back

Alvin Kamara ($8200): Bad weather or not, Drew Brees doesn’t push the ball downfield (32nd in IAY). With Michael Thomas expected to miss another week, Kamara will be in line for his usual plethora of targets.

Derrick Henry ($8000): Henry has a fantastic matchup. He’s the reason I’m worried about playing Tannehill in cash games. Tennessee could dominate on the ground and completely neuter the passing game.

Jamaal Williams ($6100): Another game where bad weather favors the RB. Green Bay has the third-highest team total on the slate and are six-point favorites against the seemingly tanking Vikings.

Kareem Hunt ($6900): Regardless of the weather, this is a terrific spot for Hunt. Cleveland runs the ball the fourth most on early downs in neutral game scripts while Las Vegas is the fourth-worst team in the league defending the run on early downs. Hunt will also be in line to lead the Cleveland backfield in targets, which could increase given the expected high winds.

Jonathan Taylor ($6600): He plays in the only dome game on the slate, but to be frank, he has not been productive this season. He gets another chance against a Detroit defense that currently ranks 22nd in the league in success rate against early-down rushing attempts.

Josh Jacobs ($6200): He gets the same benefit as Hunt does regarding inclement weather, albeit in a slightly tougher matchup (Cleveland ranks 14th in success rate against early-down rushes). Jacobs also has the second-highest opportunity share in the league.

Giovani Bernard ($5800): This price might be too high for Bernard, but if Joe Mixon ($6300) misses this game, Bernard will be in line to lead the backfield in touches once again.

DeeJay Dallas ($4000): A minimum priced RB with the fourth-highest team total on the slate needs to be in the cash game discussion. It’s not the most outstanding matchup, but his price is too hard to ignore. Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, and Travis Homer could all be out or limited this week. If Dallas receives the bulk of the work, he’s one of the best value picks for the Week 8 NFL DFS main slate.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Lockett ($7100): He leads the Seahawks in targets (58), and they get a favorable matchup against the 49ers. It’s one of the few games which is not expected to be affected by the weather this weekend.

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Kenny Golladay ($6600): Neither the matchup nor team total is appealing, but Golladay leads the Lions in WOPR (19th in the league) and will play in the only dome game on the slate. At just $6600, he’s in play for cash games and tournaments.

Keenan Allen ($6200): I don’t understand the lack of a price increase for Allen. He is fifth in target share, weighted opportunity rating (WOPR), and targets on the season. He’s too cheap for the role he has proven to have on this Chargers offense.

Brandon Aiyuk ($5800): Deebo Samuel will miss this game, making Aiyuk the go-to receiving option after George Kittle ($7000). A popular play, but for a good reason. Aiyuk leads the team in air yards and is second in targets on the season, behind only Kittle. He’s one of my first players in for cash game builds this week.

Jarvis Landry ($5600): With Aiyuk just $200 more, Landry makes for an excellent tournament pivot. Landry is in line to be the top receiving option for Baker Mayfield ($6100), and his 9.0 average depth of target (aDOT) bodes well for the high winds we expect.

Diontae Johnson ($5500): A full practice Thursday should leave no doubt for Johnson’s availability this weekend. It’s a tough matchup, but Johnson has led the Steelers in targets in every game he has not left early with an injury. He projects as another great tournament pivot off of Aiyuk and one of my favorite Week 8 NFL DFS picks.

A.J. Green ($4500): After a rough start to the season, Green has turned it around with back to back 15+ fantasy point performances. He’s the salary saver you’ll need to jam in all of the quality RB plays this week.

Mike Williams ($4400): Williams is always a threat to break the slate. His opportunities are few and far between (11 targets in the Chargers past three games), but you’ll only need a few to hit to pay off this price.

Rashard Higgins ($4200): Higgins converted six of six targets after Odell Beckham Jr. left with an injury in Week 7. I’m not sure if this is his role from here on out, but you won’t be paying a premium to find out. However, he makes for a good tournament fade as his low price will drive up his ownership.

Hunter Renfrow ($3800): He and Nelson Agholor ($4700) lead the Raiders receivers in targets the past three games. Unlike Agholor, however, his 6.33 aDOT bodes well for a heavy wind game. I think Renfrow is borderline cash viable this weekend.

Denzel Mims ($3200): The rookie saw a 32% target share in his season debut Week 7. The bad news is, it came with just a 2.57 aDOT. You’re never excited to roster a Jet, but at only $3200, if you need the savings, I don’t entirely hate it.

Tight End

Mark Andrews ($5800): You won’t get Andrews very often at this low of an ownership percentage. He ranks third amongst all TEs in air yards, is fifth in target percentage, and is my favorite of my Week 8 NFL DFS picks at TE.

Darren Waller ($5600): Waller projects as arguably the top play at TE in Week 8. He ranks first among all TEs in target share, targets and is second in WOPR.

Hunter Henry ($4200): Having Henry priced as the TE12 is ludicrous to me. He is sixth in air yards, fourth in target share, and fifth in WOPR.

Harrison Bryant ($3200): While most were excited to see David Njoku ($3800) receive more opportunities last weekend, it was Bryant who showed up with a big game. He led the Browns TEs in snap percentage (77%) and targets (five).

Defense

Chiefs ($4500): They play the Jets. No explanation is needed.

Broncos ($3000): They aren’t projected to be popular, which is a plus. Denver ranks fifth in defensive line adjusted sack rate, while the Chargers are league average on the offensive line at 16th.

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Packers ($2900): The Vikings offensive line ranks 28th in adjusted sack rate, while the Packers defensive line resides at eighth. They’re a six-point home favorite against a mistake-prone QB.

Game Stacks

This isn’t a great week for game stacks. The only dome game features two slower-paced offenses, while there are several games expected to have heavy winds throughout. That could change come Sunday morning, but as of now, you’re going to have to target some sub-optimal game conditions and hope it works out.

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals / Total 53

This was the game I was willing to forego the weather worries and take a chance on in tournaments. Unfortunately, most of the field seems to think the same. If you stack this game, you HAVE to differentiate elsewhere. That said, it’s the best game stack on the board, in my opinion, wind notwithstanding.

It’s a pace up game (Tennessee ranks fourth in situation neutral pace, Cincinnati 11th) featuring two of the worst defenses in the league. Adam Humphries ($3800) is an excellent way to be contrarian within this game, as he ranks second on the team in air yards and is tied for the lead in targets. Tyler Boyd ($6600) is another way to differentiate without drifting away from this game,

Usually, you can attack the passing game of popular RBs, but Tannehill, Jonnu Smith ($4100), and A.J. Brown ($6900) project to be popular in their own right. This is a good spot for both offenses, but considering the ownership, I don’t hate it if you want to fully fade this game or be underweight relative to the field.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks / Total 54

One of the few games with no weather concerns this weekend deserves to be on our radar. From a matchup standpoint, the Seahawks haven’t been able to stop anyone all season (6.3 yards per play surrendered) while the 49ers pass rush has fallen off a cliff. Wilson, with a clean pocket, is a recipe for disaster.

With the Deebo Samuel injury, the 49ers have a somewhat concentrated target tree. If you can pinpoint which RB will receive the bulk of the workload, you’ll have a massive edge over the field this weekend. I’m putting my money on Jerrick McKinnon ($5800), as Kyle Shanahan stated after the New England game that Week 7 was always going to be a rest week for McKinnon.

The Seattle passing game will be popular, but not popular enough. I’m calling all systems to go for Lockett, DK Metcalf ($7500), and Wilson. Mix up your runbacks, however, as there’s no telling what direction Shanahan will go in any given week.

GPP Leverage spots

As of this writing, the most popular roster construction seems to be three expensive RBs, mid-4K WR, Aiyuk, and a 4K TE. Weather makes it, so there aren’t many leverage spots to get excited over. Instead, we can target positional pivots to gain leverage on the field. You can also be different by having a different roster construction than what I just listed. Start your lineup with two expensive WRs, and the rest will naturally flow into a contrarian build.

Cleveland passing game off of Hunt: Hunt projects to be the most popular play of the weekend. We can gain leverage by rostering the Browns passing game and hoping Baker throws all of the touchdowns.

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Saints passing game off of Kamara: I’m not as excited about this one, and I might not even go here myself for Week 8. That said, Kamara will be popular, so Brees and the passing game act as proper leverage off of him.

The only player I’m willing to target is Allen Robinson ($7100) for a runback. Although, Chicago is so bad; you’re probably better off just avoiding this game altogether.

Chargers RBs off of Allen: Allen is projected to be the most popular WR on the slate. So, obviously, we want to target the rushing game and hope they get all of the TDs.

Joshua Kelley ($4900) is my guy over Justin Jackson ($4800), but if you’re making enough teams (I’d say at least 20), it’s OK to have both.