In Week 2, underdogs dominated against the spread, going 10-5-1 ATS. Through two weeks, heavy underdogs have been very trustworthy for bettors, as teams are 7-0-1 ATS when getting six or more points.
In our NFL picks this week, will we ride the trends and lean on the underdogs? Let’s dive into our NFL predictions and break down every game on the upcoming slate. All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are as of Sept. 20.
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Broncos +220, Buccaneers -270
- Total: 41
The Buccaneers are coming off a huge win in Detroit last week, and their stock couldn’t be higher after they were met with “fluke” allegations going into this season.
However, Tampa Bay was pretty fortunate to win that game, as the Lions had more than twice as many yards of offense — they just happened to go 1-7 in the red zone.
Now seems to be the perfect spot to sell high on the Buccaneers, as the oddsmakers have overadjusted their value after a 2-0 start coming off last season’s playoff run.
It might be hard to back Bo Nix, but this is a lot of points against a Buccaneers defense with a lot of injuries.
Prediction: Buccaneers 21, Broncos 17
Pick: Broncos +6.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Giants +235, Browns -290
- Total: 38
Daniel Jones threw as many touchdown passes last week as he did in his last six starts. That came against the Commanders’ defense, however, the 30th-ranked unit in PFN’s rankings. This week, the Giants will be up against the top-ranked defense in the NFL.
The issue here, however, is the uncertainty regarding Myles Garrett’s availability as he is battling a foot injury.
If we had more certainty with Garrett, I would take the Giants’ team total under, but I’m going to pass on this game for now.
Prediction: Browns 21, Giants 14
Pick: Pass
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Chargers +102, Steelers -122
- Total: 36
This is the lowest total of the week, and for good reason.
So far this season, unders are a combined 4-0 in Chargers and Steelers games. For Los Angeles, the under has hit by an average margin of 9.3 points per game, meanwhile for Pittsburgh, it’s a league-high of 16 points.
Not only are these two of the best defensive teams this season, but they’re 30th and 31st each in pass rate over expected.
Now that they’re matched up against each other, I see no reason not to take this under consideration, even if it may seem too obvious.
Prediction: Chargers 17, Steelers 16
Pick: Under 36 (-110 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3)
- Moneyline: Eagles +124, Saints -148
- Total: 49.5
If you want to sell low on this Saints team, this doesn’t feel like the right week to do it.
New Orleans has had the NFL’s most explosive offense through two weeks, and the Saints now get a home matchup against an Eagles defense that is 30th in yards allowed per game and EPA per drive.
The Eagles’ offense, while still an efficient unit, lacks their typical explosiveness without A.J. Brown, as outside of DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts doesn’t have much to work with as far as pass catchers.
We’re buying extremely high here, as the spread has swung six points, but it just feels right based on the state of these two teams.
Prediction: Saints 31, Eagles 24
Pick: Saints -2.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Houston Texans (-2) at Minnesota Vikings
- Moneyline: Texans -135, Vikings +114
- Total: 46
A battle of two undefeated teams to start 2024, with the Vikings being much more surprising than the Texans, given the difference in preseason expectations.
The Texans could be without Joe Mixon for this game, as he suffered an ankle injury in their Week 2 win over the Bears. If Mixon can’t go, the Texans are very thin at running back, as Dameon Pierce is currently injured.
In what should be a close game, the Texans could be forced into a pass-heavy approach. One beneficiary should be Tank Dell, who is coming off an uncharacteristic performance in which he had minus-3 receiving yards on four targets.
Even though Dell trails both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs in both targets and receptions, each of the Texans’ top wide receivers is nearly equal in routes run through two weeks. Despite recording just 9.3 yards per reception, Dell’s aDOT of 13.36 is very close to Collins’ of 13.61 as well.
Regression might be coming for Dell this week, and now is a good time to buy low.
Prediction: Texans 24, Vikings 21
Pick: Tank Dell over 50.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-3)
- Moneyline: Packers +124, Titans -148
- Total: 38
Jordan Love has resumed practicing this week as a limited participant, and he apparently has a chance of suiting up on Sunday.
The line in this game, however, has gone up a point in the last couple of days, and since the Titans were originally home underdogs in this matchup before Love’s Week 1 injury, I’m going to assume we’ll see Malik Willis again.
If that’s the case, I really like this spot for the Titans.
If not for asinine mistakes by Will Levis, Tennessee could easily be 2-0. Now, the Titans get a home matchup against a very one-dimensional offense, which I think their defense could match up well against. Through two games, the Titans are allowing the 10th-lowest yards per carry and fourth-fewest yards before contact on average.
Prediction: Titans 20, Packers 17
Pick: Titans -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1)
- Moneyline: Bears -108, Colts -112
- Total: 43.5
With a lot of attention on Caleb Williams’ early season struggles, the Bears’ defense hasn’t gotten enough spotlight as one of the best units in the NFL.
So far this season, they’re eighth in yards allowed per game, fifth in yards per play, and fourth in EPA per drive.
Perhaps most importantly in this matchup, however, the Bears’ defense has the best success rate in defending the run this season at 66.7%.
Like they did last week against Mixon before his injury, I expect them to shut down Jonathan Taylor and have their way against a talented but inconsistent and raw quarterback in Anthony Richardson.
Considering the issues with the Bears’ offense though, I’m more comfortable just banking on their defense shutting down Indianapolis.
Prediction: Bears 20, Colts 17
Pick: Colts under 22.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-6)
- Moneyline: Panthers +215, Raiders -265
- Total: 40
It’s hard to argue that Andy Dalton isn’t a huge upgrade over Bryce Young at the moment. Before Young was benched, this line was at Raiders -7, but has there been enough of an adjustment?
Since last season, the only four quarterbacks who have been worse than Young by EPA per dropback with at least 100 attempts are Tommy DeVito, Bailey Zappe, Trevor Siemian, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Yes, Young has been even worse than Zach Wilson.
Last season, in the one week Dalton started when Young was injured, it was one of two Panthers games all season in which they had a positive EPA per play offensively. The other game was a major outlier performance for Young and Carolina against the Packers.
While this could be a tough matchup for Dalton against this Raiders defense, I don’t think there has been enough of an adjustment for the Panthers benching Young.
Prediction: Raiders 23, Panthers 20
Pick: Panthers +6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Dolphins +185, Seahawks -225
- Total: 41.5
The Dolphins’ offense obviously takes a big hit now with Skylar Thompson at quarterback, and he faces a daunting task this week in going against this Seahawks defense on the road.
But with 10 days to prepare, I trust Mike McDaniel to have a strong game plan for life without Tua Tagovailoa.
While this Seahawks defense has been a top-10 unit by yards allowed and EPA per drive, they have faced Bo Nix and Jacoby Brissett so far. While Thompson isn’t any better than those two quarterbacks, those offenses lack the same weapons that Miami has.
On the other side, Miami’s defense has been a mediocre unit so far by most metrics, and they’re facing a red-hot Geno Smith. Under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks have been a top-10 passing offense by yards per game and EPA per dropback.
This is a rare over pick for me.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Dolphins 20
Pick: Over 41.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Dallas Cowboys
- Moneyline: Ravens -115, Cowboys -105
- Total: 47.5
This is a matchup between two teams who had perhaps the most embarrassing losses in Week 2 prior to the Eagles’ epic collapse on Monday Night Football.
The Cowboys were a very popular home favorite last week, which made their 44-19 loss to the Saints even more shocking. Are the Saints actually really good, though, and this loss doesn’t reflect so poorly on Dallas? It’s hard to say right now.
Last week against the Saints, the Cowboys allowed passing plays of 70, 57, and 39 yards, which seems a bit flukey and unlikely to happen against a Ravens offense without any real deep threats.
The issue for the Cowboys defensively in this matchup, however, is their rush defense. The Saints last week ran for 193 yards on 36 attempts for an average of 5.36 yards on designed running plays. Even against the Browns in which they won by double digits, they allowed 93 rushing yards on 19 attempts, including 39 yards from Deshaun Watson.
Now, they have to face a Ravens rushing attack led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. I expect Baltimore to lean on this duo in a grind-it-out victory to snap their losing streak to start the season.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Cowboys 20
Pick: Ravens ML (-110 at FanDuel)
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams
- Moneyline: 49ers -298, Rams +240
- Total: 43.5
These are perhaps the two most injured teams at this point in the season, and they’ll be facing each other this week.
Both teams are especially depleted on offense, which has me liking the under in a matchup where we would typically see a lot of points between two explosive teams when healthy.
With injuries to Puka Nacua, their offensive line, and Cooper Kupp mid-game, the Rams only put up 245 yards of offense against a bottom-five Cardinals defense.
Although Nick Bosa and Charvarius Ward have been battling injuries this week, I still think this 49ers defense is far better than Arizona’s, regardless of their availabilities.
Meanwhile for the 49ers, we’ve seen how much less effective Brock Purdy is without all of his top weapons in the lineup. This week, he could be missing three of his four best playmakers, with only Brandon Aiyuk healthy.
Prediction: 49ers 21, Rams 15
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
- Moneyline: Lions -148, Cardinals +124
- Total: 51.5
Although the Lions’ offense is only 16th in points scored, they’re averaging the second-most yards per game so far this season.
The issue? Red zone offense. Last week, they went just 1-7 in the red zone, and for the season, they have only scored touchdowns on 27.3% of their red zone appearances, fifth-worst in the NFL.
That means positive regression is coming for the Lions’ offense, and this could be the week to bet on it happening.
As impressive as the Cardinals’ offense has looked so far this season, they still have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They had a strong performance against the Rams last week, but it was essentially Matthew Stafford and a bunch of backups.
Prediction: Lions 30, Cardinals 27
Pick: Lions over 26.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
- Moneyline: Chiefs -162, Falcons +136
- Total: 46.5
Have Kirk Cousins and the Falcons’ offense arrived, or did they just feast on a really bad Eagles defense? That is the question going into this matchup.
For Kansas City, the offense hasn’t been as explosive as we would expect from Patrick Mahomes and company to start the season, and now their rushing attack takes a big hit with Isiah Pacheco’s injury.
The Falcons’ safety duo could shut down the middle of the field for Travis Kelce, however, and Bijan Robinson should be able to extend offensive drives against a Chiefs run defense that is 29th in success rate.
I would be more inclined to take the Falcons getting points if there was better value, but the line has dropped too much. Instead, I’m going to roll with the under.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Falcons 20
Pick: Under 46.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +190, Bills -230
- Total: 45.5
The Bills come into this game with a unique amount of extra rest, as they’re just the third team since 2015 to play on Monday Night Football coming off a Thursday game the week prior, according to The Action Network. In the two times that has happened, the team with extra rest has won by an average margin of 24 points.
That, however, is too small of a sample size to work with here.
This is a matchup, however, of two completely opposite teams when it comes to recent success in the regular season. In their last 10 games, the Jaguars are 3-7, and the Bills have won nine regular season games in a row.
During that 10-game stretch, however, the Jaguars have been rather unlucky, as they’re 28th in win percentage but 16th in point differential. This is a trend that started last season and has carried over into 2024 so far, as the Jaguars have lost two straight games they should have won.
The Jaguars could just be an unfortunate team, but there is usually always a regression when it comes to luck. They’ll also be facing a Bills team that is decimated with injuries on defense.
Prediction: Bills 24, Jaguars 21
Pick: Jaguars +5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Commanders +280, Bengals -355
- Total: 47
This is going to be a rare spot where I back a heavy favorite.
The Commanders won last week without scoring an offensive touchdown against a Giants team that didn’t have a healthy kicker. Meanwhile, the Bengals lost a close game in Kansas City that they should have won, if not for bad turnover luck.
Best of all for the Bengals, they’re expected to get Tee Higgins back for this one, and Joe Burrow looked much better last week than he did in their season opener. He should be able to capitalize on last week’s momentum against this Commanders defense as well, which has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL since last season and 132 more than the next closest team.
Prediction: Bengals 28, Commanders 17
Pick: Bengals -7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)