NFL DFS: Week 2 Cash game and GPP picks

Week 1 of the NFL season was packed with excitement, and the Week 2 NFL DFS slate looks to be even better. A strenuous offseason left analysts with very little information to look over when building a lineup for the first week, but all of that changes in Week 2. We now have a baseline to analyze when building our weekly lineups. This provides tremendous help when looking for values and sleepers on DraftKings.

When constructing a lineup for cash games in Week 2, it’s crucial to target players with established roles in an offense. You don’t need to go for the home run play; focus on consistency in these contests. Building your cash game lineup on DraftKings around players with a high target share in their respective offenses is an excellent recipe for success.

NFL DFS cash game picks for Week 2 of the 2020 season

Aaron Rodgers($6,900)

Rodgers is the safest play of the week at quarterback. He was unstoppable last week, throwing for 364 yards and four touchdowns against the Vikings. He plays the Lions in Week 2, who just let Mitch Trubisky throw for three touchdowns. Rodgers was QB1 last week and has a good chance of repeating that feat in Week 2.

Davante Adams($8,100)

Stacking isn’t as important in cash games as in GPP contests, but pairing Adams and Rodgers is a great play this week. Adams posted the most fantasy points in Week 1 and now faces off against a shaky Lions secondary this week. Build your DraftKings lineups around Rodgers and Adams in Week 2.

Related l PPR Fantasy Football Week 2 Rankings: 1QB and Superflex

Corey Davis($4,000)

The Titans passing game looked really good against a stout Broncos secondary in Week 1, and a lot of that had to do with Corey Davis. His route running looked better than ever as he consistently created separation from opposing cornerbacks. Davis faces the Jaguars in Week 2 and could be in line for another 100-yard receiving game. He’s a great value and will far exceed his current DraftKings salary.

Saquon Barkley($8,400)

It was a rough start for Barkley and the Giants on Monday night against the Steelers. Barkley only totaled six yards on 15 carries but was able to stay fantasy relevant by bringing in six of his nine targets for 60 yards. The Steelers have arguably the best defense in the NFL, and it was indeed amazing they were able to shut down Barkley as they did. He’ll look to rebound in Week 2 against a struggling Bears run defense who just let journeyman Adrian Peterson rush for 93 yards on 14 carries.

Nyheim Hines($5,300)

The Colts didn’t look great in a Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, but Hines thrived in his new role as Phillip Rivers’ top pass-catching back. Last season, Rivers made Ekeler a top 10 fantasy option at running back, and he could do the same for Hines in 2020. The Colts face a Vikings defense in Week 2 that allowed the most points in the NFL last week to the Packers. Hines could take on a larger role in the rushing attack, considering Marlon Mack is on IR with a torn Achilles.

Week 1 Results

Week 2 NFL DFS GPP Picks 

The beauty of daily fantasy is if you have a bad day, you can shake it off and move onto next week. Last week wasn’t a bad day for us, but we are still moving on to Week 2 in NFL DFS.

If you want a full recap of last week, go and skim through the article to see where we hit and missed, as well as to get an insight into my weekly process. Some hits included Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and the Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons game stacks.

I talked about my process last week before I dove into my favorite picks. This week I want to discuss the importance of contest selection, and how that should affect your roster decisions before we get into the Week 2 NFL DFS picks.

The importance of contest selection in NFL DFS

We all want to turn a little into a lot. That is why we play these huge DFS contests every weekend. While it is fun to try and turn $20 in $1,000,000, we also need to have our expectations in line.

If your goal is to try and “bink” a large tournament every weekend, that’s okay. Don’t let anyone tell you what you should and shouldn’t do with your money. It’s challenging to win these enormous contests. This is where we ask ourselves, “what is my expectation, and why am I playing?”

I treat my DFS entries like I do my Poker buy-ins: Once that money is on the table, it isn’t mine anymore. I consider it lost until “proven” otherwise. That’s to say, if I want to play with $200 every weekend in DFS, I would have to set aside $3400 for the season, as there is no guarantee I will break even every week, no matter how good I think I am.

Contests I prefer to play to increase my Return on Investment (ROI)

I fire a bullet or two in the big, top-heavy contests, but otherwise, I prefer the smaller sized contests, with limited max entries and smaller payouts. Multipliers and boosters, where the top “X” amount of finishers win a fixed amount, are my favorite contests. You don’t need “the nuts” to cash in these, and you can have a very nice day if you do place in these types of contests. Is it life-changing money? No. But, I have experienced a 400% ROI in some weeks. That means, if I put in $50 in total, I received $200 in winnings.

I realize that isn’t life-changing money, but the more you grow your bankroll, the more bullets you can fire in the larger scale tournaments, giving yourself a better chance of hitting that giant payday we all dream about.

The other contests I play are the single entry $2, $5, $10, and $25 double-ups. The cash line in the single entry double up’s routinely smaller than that of the massive double-ups that DraftKings offers.

Now that I got my contest selection rant out of the way let us dive into my favorite game stacks and values for the Week 2 NFL DFS slate.

Top game stacks for the Week 2 slate

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta will probably make my game stack selections every week, as they play fast, in a dome, have a dynamic passing attack, pass a lot, and have a terrible defense. You can’t ask for much more in fantasy football.

The Falcons continued their fast-paced play from 2019 by ranking 3rd and 11th in total and situation neutral pace in Week 1. They only had 24 plays in a neutral game script but passed at a 64% clip on early downs in that situation, compared to 58% in 2019. Their defense is still nasty, and they will once again play in a dome this week in Dallas.

The Cowboys also fit the criteria we look for, not only in fantasy football but DFS in particular. They play fast, throw the ball a lot, have a lousy defense, and play in a dome. Dallas threw on 59% of their early down plays in a neutral game script Sunday night against the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles had a 62% success rate when throwing on Dallas in early downs, so I don’t see how Dallas will stop Atlanta in this regard.

Related l Week 2 Fantasy Football Predictions

Play everyone from this game, except the tight ends. I love the QB’s, the WR’s, and am willing to give Todd Gurley ($6100) a second chance, albeit at minimal exposure. Gurley only played 46% of the snaps but received 14/18 of the RB carries and 5/10 RB targets.

Michael Gallup ($5600) is my favorite wide receiver play on Dallas, as he is projected to be the lowest-owned amongst the Cowboys receivers. While Amari Cooper ($6300) out targetted Gallup 14-5 in Week 1, they both commanded over a 20% target share in 2019. I’d expect that to be the case again in 2020.

This game will be the most popular game stack in DFS tournaments this week, so be sure to differentiate elsewhere throughout your line up. That said, this is by far my favorite game to target for the Week 2 NFL DFS slate.

Other plays: Matt Ryan ($6600), Dak Prescott ($6800), Julio Jones ($7400), Calvin Ridley ($6800), Russell Gage ($4800), CeeDee Lamb ($4700), Ezekiel Elliott ($8200)

New York Giants at Chicago Bears

This is an under-the-radar game I am targeting this week. While I think you can look at Jason Garrett’s debut as play-caller with mixed results, the Giants passed the ball 41 times on Monday night compared to just 16 rushes in a game that was 16-10 entering the 4th quarter. That bodes extremely well for DFS.

The Bears flipped their neutral situation pass/rush ratios from last season (45/55 in Week 1 compared to a 56/44 split in 2019). but that doesn’t concern me too much. They ran at a fast pace in Week 1 than they did in 2019, so hopefully, that trend continues, and they revert to their 2019 ways as far as throwing the ball on early downs.

Related l Week 2 NFL Point Spreads: How will teams adjust to succeed?

I don’t like anyone from Chicago other than disgruntled WR Allen Robinson ($6400). No one in this game is projected to be over 10% owned this week, so you can be as chalky as you want with the rest of your lineup if you chose to stack this game. Anthony Miller ($5200) led the team in yards traveled before the catch (YBC) with 68, according to Pro Football Reference, and is a fine piece to add in your game stacks.

Darius Slayton ($5000) is a fantastic play this week. He led the Giants in targets (9) and YBC (91) in Week 1 against Pittsburgh. Sterling Shepard ($5500) isn’t as exciting but is still acceptable in game stacks. Saquon Barkley ($8400) is a “pay up to be contrarian” play. He received 15/16 Giants running back carries and 9/10 RB targets. Evan Engram ($5300) should probably be in your portfolio, but his 4.7 average depth of target leaves a lot to be desired.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

No one, in fantasy football, possesses a higher floor/ceiling combo than the Baltimore Ravens. However, Lamar Jackson ($8200) is priced as such, being the only QB above $8000. I still plan on having some exposure, since we have seen Baltimore return value time and time again despite essentially ending the game by the 3rd quarter.

The Houston Texan’s defense is terrible, and I don’t see how they slow down the likes of Jackson, Mark Andrews ($6300), and Marquise Brown ($6200). The player I am running it back with is Will Fuller ($6300). The way the Texans used Fuller on opening night suggests he is not just their deep threat anymore. Whether the Texans fall behind or are able to keep it competitive, Fuller will be involved.