Week 11 NFL Player Props: Over/under betting analysis

Pro Football Network and Against The Spread co-host Jason Sarney identifies his Week 11 NFL player props picks and over/under marks led by Lamar Jackson.

Coming off of a smoking-hot Week 10, the Week 11 NFL player props market hopes to add to profitability in searching for over/under marks. As per the Pro Football Network Sheep Report, Week 10 saw a 6-3 NFL player prop record and four units of profit, with a bit of change. 

On the season so far, we have a 38-35 record with a bit over five units of profit. Although the Play-of-the-Week has been kind on the year, Devin Singletary did not pull through last week in Cleveland with his player prop. The loss brought the POTW record to 9-5 on the season. A hint of what is to come, we will go right back to the well with Singletary. Looking forward to what he can do in the same state he played his college ball. 

Player Props of the Week – Take Action on Jackson

Lamar to Lead Baltimore Against Houston

The experiment is working. Lamar Jackson is playing lights out and proving every week that he is an NFL quarterback and not just a college runner with an arm. His ground stats are gaudy, as expected, but his passing stats are impressing even his most vocal critics. 

With 15 passing touchdowns in nine games to go along with six rushing touchdowns, he is helping the Ravens contend for a number one seed in the AFC. He has thrown for multiple passing scores in more games than not, with five to his credit and gets a Houston Texans team and secondary that is bottom four in the league in yardage. They have also given up 18 passing scores, which puts them near the bottom in the NFL. 

Jackson and the Ravens are seeking a sixth straight win when they welcome Deshaun Watson and the Texans on Sunday. Expect both signal-callers to have heavy stat days and its a safe play that Jackson hits his 1.5 passing touchdowns over/under.

Week 11 NFL player props play: Lamar Jackson OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns – NFL Odds (-118) (2 units)

Dede to Have a Day-Day 

Who doesn’t love a reunion? Quarterback Nick Foles is back, ending Minshew-Mania for the time being, but for now, there is new life for Dede Westbrook. Early in the preseason, newly signed Foles found an instant connection with the third-year wide receiver. 

Foles’ Week 1 injury halted their progress, but there could be a renaissance in the relationship on the carpet against the Colts indoors. Westbrook’s speed can certainly play to Foles’ strength of getting the ball out quickly to a receiver in stride. A low over/under of 50.0 receiving yards for a player props mark is very hittable for a favorite target. There is not much data on that statement other than a handful of pre-season games and training camp rapport rumors, but faith needs to be kept in a season-long investment on Westbrook. 

If he and Foles can hook up a few times and perhaps hit for a score, Westbrook can make for a solid playoff-push waiver-wire add for you fantasy owners out there. Especially with a final bye week coming up. 

Week 11 NFL player props play: Dede Westbrook OVER 50.5 receiving yards – NFL Odds – (-112) 1 Unit

Singletary returns to South Beach…sort of

Devin Singletary was featured last week and fell short. However, a matchup against the bottom five rushing defense of the Miami Dolphins can help in a rebound effort. Singletary will also be returning to where he played college ball, look for additional motivation to impress.

Singletary is just starting to get his footing as a potential lead and workhorse back, who can also mix in yardage with his receiving ability. It is a very reachable 64.5 rush yards to reach for, as the Bills do excel more on the ground than they do in the air. 

He has to make good this week, as there is a very solid chance he could be running a ton in the second half. 

Week 11 NFL props play: Devin Singletary OVER 64.5 rushing yards – NFL Odds – (-108) 1 Unit

Roll with the Rookie Raider

Jon Gruden was nearly torn to shreds for trading Khalil Mack at the beginning of the 2019 season to Chicago. Thankfully for Gruden and the Raiders, part of that compensation was the lead candidate for 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year Josh Jacobs.

Jacobs is averaging 104 yards from scrimmage a game, and with the leagues most atrocious rush defense flying to Oakland in the Cincinnati Bengals, he could cover his 108.5 combined yardage over/under with rush yards alone. Jacobs should feast on a defense that has given up 173 rushing yards per game.  

Week 11 NFL props play: Josh Jacobs OVER 108.5 rush yards – NFL Odds (-112) 1 unit

Other Week 11 NFL Player Props Plays

Brian Hill OVER 61.5 rushing yards – NFL Odds – (-112) 1 Unit

Le’Veon Bell OVER 58.5 rushing yards – NFL Odds – (-112) 1 Unit


Dede Westbrook Anytime Scorer – NFL Odds – (+290) 1/2 unit

Mike Gesicki Anytime Scorer – NFL Odds – (+450) 1/2 unit

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