After another long yet eventful offseason, NFL Week 1 is finally here.
The Week 1 betting lines have been up since the schedule release back in May, giving us plenty of time to make our NFL picks before kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
But which sides and totals should you be taking this week? Let’s dive into the Week 1 NFL predictions.
Breaking Down Latest NFL Week 1 Odds and Game Previews
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are as of Sept. 8. The picks in this article were made throughout the week, so some may have been based on old lines and/or odds. If you are looking for advice on whether a bet should still be made based on current odds, you can message the relevant analyst on X.
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New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Patriots +275, Bengals -345
- Total: 41
This is the largest point spread of the week and the only game with a favorite of more than a touchdown. Even with Tee Higgins banged up and Ja’Marr Chase potentially rusty after sitting out of practice early in the week, it’s for good reason — the New England Patriots are that bad.
For Week 1 however, this might be too many points for me to lay with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Over the past decade, teams favored by more than a touchdown in the season opener are 5-11 ATS and 3-10 ATS when the opposing quarterback has at least two years of NFL experience under his belt.
Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett might be a fringe-level starter, but he has plenty of experience with 48 career starts and is facing a Bengals defense that allowed a league-high 6.0 yards per play last season.
I think the Bengals win this one but the Patriots make it a sweat — for Cincinnati fans and survivor pool players everywhere.
Prediction: Bengals 21, Patriots 14
Pick: Patriots +8.5
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Cardinals +245, Bills -305
- Total: 46.5
Another game that could be a popular survivor pick this week, the Buffalo Bills are laying nearly a touchdown at home against the Arizona Cardinals.
This line dropped below six points earlier in the week, as the Cardinals are a trendy surprise-breakout team this season.
One reason why: According to TruMedia, the Cardinals had the ninth-most efficient offense in the NFL last season after Kyler Murray’s return from injury by EPA, one spot behind the Bills. Now, Arizona has a fully healthy Murray, and he has a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver — No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr.
While this is a matchup of two talented offenses, both defenses worry me.
The Cardinals were the worst defense in the NFL last season by EPA, and enter 2024 with the 32nd-ranked unit according to our rankings.
The Bills meanwhile, already have their best defensive player, LB Matt Milano, sidelined with an injury, and this unit parted ways with several veterans this offseason, most notably Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde. With a lot of new faces defensively, there could be a learning curve for this Bills unit.
With all of that said, I don’t think it will surprise people where I’m going with this pick — give me the over.
Prediction: Bills 30, Cardinals 24
Pick: Over 47
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +154, Dolphins -185
- Total: 49
Many people forget that the Jacksonville Jaguars were in the driver’s seat to win the AFC South last season at 8-3 before Trevor Lawrence had to play through injuries for the rest of the season.
There is also a consensus that Lawrence had a down season in 2023, but he was plagued by a combination of unlucky factors, most notably poor wide receiver play. While Lawrence ranked just 22nd in EPA per dropback last season according to TruMedia, he rose all the way up to seventh-best when you adjust for drops, pass protection, and other factors.
Simply put, Lawrence is getting underrated right now, and so are the Jaguars, and they’ll be facing a depleted Dolphins defense.
On the other side, as talented as this Dolphins offense is, they have issues on the offensive line, as their unit was ranked just 25th in the NFL after losing multiple starters this offseason. While the Jaguars don’t have a particularly stout defense, their strength is their EDGE duo in Joshua Hines-Allen and Travon Walker.
I think these are two teams that are nearly evenly matched, so I’ll comfortably take the Jaguars and the points. Moneyline could be enticing, but I feel more confident in the +3.
Prediction: Jaguars 30, Dolphins 27
Pick: Jaguars +3
Houston Texans (-3) at Indianapolis Colts
- Moneyline: Texans -155, Colts +130
- Total: 48.5
This is one of the hardest matchups to pick of the week, in my opinion.
The Houston Texans are a preseason darling this season after making a surprise playoff run last season behind C.J. Stroud’s remarkable rookie year. Now, with veteran additions like Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter, the Texans are a trendy Super Bowl pick in Year 2 of Stroud/head coach DeMeco Ryans.
But a divisional matchup in Week 1 is scary.
Over the last 10 years, Week 1 underdogs when playing a division rival are 35-12-2 ATS. When they’re home underdogs, their ATS record improves to 13-4-1.
Despite that trend, however, I’m not confident enough in picking the Colts, and the biggest reason is the uncertainty around Anthony Richardson.
Richardson has a ton of upside as a franchise quarterback, but currently, there are too many unknowns with him. Since high school, Richardson has only started in 17 games combined in college and the NFL, meaning he is still very raw as he enters his second season in the league.
This will be a fun game, but one I’m passing on making a bet at the moment.
Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 24
Pick: Pass
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4)
- Moneyline: Titans +160, Bears -192
- Total: 44.5
Caleb Williams might have a very bright future ahead of him, but I don’t think his career starts with a win in front of the home crowd. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, No. 1 pick rookie QBs are 4-22-1 SU and 7-20 ATS in their first career start.
While that trend is scary for Williams and the Bears, I also think this Tennessee Titans team could be better than expected this season.
Rather than committing to a rebuild around second-year quarterback Will Levis, the Titans went in the opposite direction — surrounding him with veteran talent in hopes of making a playoff push with him on a cheap rookie contract.
This offseason, they added Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard on offense and L’Jarius Sneed, Quandre Diggs, and Chidobe Awuzie on defense. In the draft, they used their first-round pick on JC Latham, who should help improve an offensive line that picked G Peter Skoronski with the No. 11 pick in 2023.
While I think the Titans are being underhyped, I think the Bears love is a bit premature at the moment. I think at the very least the Titans can make this a close game.
Prediction: Bears 24, Titans 21
Pick: Titans +3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
- Moneyline: Steelers +154, Falcons -185
- Total: 42
This is a pretty simple bet for me for a couple of reasons.
One, we’re fading the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense, which looked dreadful during the preseason and has a very dire skill-position group to go along with a mediocre (at best) quarterback room.
Steelers QB Russell Wilson has been limited in practice due to calf tightness, but I’m interested in this under regardless of who is under center for Pittsburgh. While the Atlanta Falcons have a weak pass rush, their defense is much improved with the additions of Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons.
On the other side, I don’t trust Kirk Cousins in his first game back from tearing his Achilles against this Steelers defense. Not only will Cousins be rusty and getting acclimated to a new team, but he’ll be going against the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL of T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. Considering his lack of mobility coming off the injury, that’s a scary thought.
Best of all, this total is above a key number of 41.5. This under is my favorite bet of the week.
Prediction: Falcons 17, Steelers 13
Pick: Under 42
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Panthers +160, Saints -192
- Total: 41.5
This is where we start to get a bit bold with our picks.
The Carolina Panthers are the 31st-ranked team in Will Blackmon’s power rankings, yet I have them pulling off the Week 1 upset here.
With the offseason additions on offense, particularly at wide receiver and on the offensive line, I’m expecting a jump from Bryce Young this season under first-year head coach Dave Canales. Considering the success Canales had in revitalizing Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield’s careers, it shouldn’t be too surprising to see him have similar results with a former No. 1 overall pick.
The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, are the definition of mediocrity, particularly at quarterback with Derek Carr. In his career, Carr is just 8-18 ATS when favored by more than a field goal, and this will be his first start under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
While the Saints’ offense should take strides from last season in Kubiak’s system after having the lowest play-action rate last season (nearly 6% lower than average), I think there will be some growing pains, as Carr has struggled historically in adjusting to new offenses.
Furthermore, the Saints’ 30th-ranked offensive line could have problems going against a Panthers pass rush led by Derrick Brown and Jadeveon Clowney.
Prediction: Panthers 21, Saints 16
Pick: Panthers +160
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Vikings -122, Giants +102
- Total: 41
Sam Darnold as a road favorite is a scary thought, yet I’m still rolling with the Minnesota Vikings here.
Where there is the possibility of Darnold seeing ghosts again in his return to MetLife Stadium against this Giants defensive line, I think the Vikings have the edge in too many other position matchups here.
For the Giants to win this game, their defensive line would have to wreak havoc on the Vikings. Although that’s entirely possible with their pass-rushing trio of Dexter Lawrence II, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, I’m not sure it can swing the game enough against the Vikings’ eight-ranked offensive line.
Even with Darnold under center, the Vikings should be able to exploit an inexperienced Giants secondary thanks to their wide receiver duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Giants 14
Pick: Vikings -1.5
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
- Moneyline: Broncos +210, Seahawks -258
- Total: 42
Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix had a strong preseason, but this environment on Sunday will be a much greater challenge than going against backups in exhibition games.
The Seattle Seahawks obviously have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, and their improved defense under new head coach Mike Macdonald should have its way with Nix making his first career road start.
Seattle’s offense, meanwhile, should be able to put enough points against the Broncos’ 31st-ranked defense to help them cover a large number.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith is coming off a disappointing season after he broke out in 2022. Smith, however, is poised for a bounce back in 2024 with a healthier and improved offensive line, and 2023 first-round pick WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s potential emergence.
I think the Seahawks can win this one comfortably.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Broncos 10
Pick: Seahawks -6
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Raiders +124, Chargers -148
- Total: 40
After hiring Jim Harbaugh this offseason, the Los Angeles Chargers appear to have shifted their identity toward being a smash-mouth, run-first team under their new head coach.
They parted pays with their top two wide receivers from a year ago, and rather than using a top-five pick on either Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze to replace them, they instead drafted OT Joe Alt.
With the addition of Alt, the Chargers beefed up their offensive line, making them a top-10 group, which will help them lean more heavily on the ground game after having the 29th-ranked rushing offense by EPA last season.
A run-first offense means the Chargers should play at a relatively slow pace offensively. Combine that with them facing a Gardner Minshew II-led Las Vegas Raiders offense, I find myself liking the under for the lowest total of the week.
Prediction: Chargers 17, Raiders 13
Pick: Under 40
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
- Moneyline: Commanders +160, Buccaneers -192
- Total: 42.5
I’m not buying this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team after their surprise playoff berth and Wild Card Round victory last year.
In this matchup in particular, I’m anticipating the Buccaneers’ defense struggling against Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels. This is a unit that ranked just 24th in pass defense efficiency last season by EPA and 29th on all pass plays with a scramble according to TruMedia.
Going into 2024, the Buccaneers have the 22nd-ranked defense after parting ways with three starters from last season.
The Commanders’ defense is even worse, but Daniels without any regular season tape will be harder to game plan for than Baker Mayfield.
Prediction: Commanders 28, Buccaneers 26
Pick: Commanders +3.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Cowboys +110, Browns -130
- Total: 41
Last season, the Cleveland Browns’ defense had the best season by EPA by any unit since the Los Angeles Rams in 2020.
Their defense was particularly dominant at home last season, allowing less than 14 points per game. As a result, unders in Browns home games in 2023 went 3-6, hitting at a 66.7% clip.
While the Dallas Cowboys had a very explosive offense last season, they averaged 102.4 fewer yards and 14.05 fewer points per game on the road.
Although this should still be a productive unit this season, the Cowboys’ offense is worse on paper than a year ago with the losses of OT Tyron Smith and RB Tony Pollard.
I would wait and see if the total gets up to 41.5, but I like the under the best in this one.
Prediction: Cowboys 16, Browns 13
Pick: Under 41
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Rams +170, Lions -205
- Total: 52.5
I’m very high on the Detroit Lions this season and think they will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
This line has gone up a lot, however, after the Lions were 3.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams earlier in the week.
Considering how much I like the Lions this season, I’m going to pass on laying the 4.5 points while I expect them to win this Wild Card Round rematch.
Prediction: Lions 28, Rams 24
Pick: Pass
New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4)
- Moneyline: Jets +170, 49ers -205
- Total: 43.5
Rather than giving out the side or total in this “Monday Night Football” matchup, I’m going to share a player prop bet instead.
Breece Hall is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL. Like his teammate Garrett Wilson, however, he’s been held back by horrific quarterback play over the last two seasons.
The New York Jets’ offense was so bad last season that Hall only had one — yes, one — carry inside the five-yard line in 17 games.
Now that Aaron Rodgers is back, this Jets offense should receive a huge boost. Rodgers doesn’t even need to return to his MVP-caliber form for New York’s offense to improve dramatically. He just needs to be considerably better than Zach Wilson was last season, which is a very low bar.
Even against a stout San Francisco 49ers defense, I’m expecting the Jets to allow Hall to find his way into the end zone.
Prediction: 49ers 24, Jets 20
Pick: Breece Hall Anytime TD (+130)
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Pick: Patriots-Bengals Under 40.5
There are lots of question marks on both teams here. The Patriots have a new head coach, a new quarterback, and not much optimism on offense, while the Bengals welcome Joe Burrow back, lose their offensive coordinator to Tennessee, have a new RB situation, and still don’t know about Ja’Marr Chase’s status.
With both sides breaking in new things on offense, I am looking at the total here. I saw the Patriots’ offense in person during joint practices with the Eagles, and they are bad. The line is awful and no matter who the QB is, it will be a long season back there. I firmly believe the Bengals will win this one and will take them if the number hits 7, but too many questions remain.
How will the timeshare work between Chase Brown and Zack Moss? Is Ja’Marr Chase going to play? How will everyone look with a new OC in-house? The Patriots defense could be the lone bright spot in Foxboro, so not expecting a lot of points here.
Pick: Cardinals +7
The Bills will be a popular secondary survivor play this week if you don’t play the Bengals, but buyer beware. I have not been shy about saying I expect the Bills to take a little step back this year after trading Stefan Diggs and losing multiple pieces of their defense. They needed a late-season rally last year to make the postseason in the final week, or the Bills’ futures would look a lot different this offseason.
They lost their opener two of the last three years, including last season when the Jets played 99 pct of the snaps without Aaron Rodgers. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 6-0 ATS in September road games over the last five seasons, pulling off a couple of outright upsets.
The Cardinals were a different team last year when Kyler Murray returned from his injury. They were 10th in offensive EPA, 10th in yards per play (5.6), and second in rush yards per game (152.8) after he returned in Week 10 and now have added Ohio State sensation Marvin Harrison Jr. to the offense. I expect this game to be closer than the spread and will happily take the points.
Pick: Colts +3
This is going to be an unpopular pick, but I am here to win money, not popularity contests. I am going to fade everyone’s offseason darlins in the AFC South Champion Texans and take the Colts at home. I am higher than most on the Colts this season, and it’s not because Anthony Richardson is back.
The Colts nearly won the division last year without AR because they have a great coach and star power to support. Jonathon Taylor and Michael Pittman are a great 1-2 punch to keep defense’s guess as to what head coach Shane Steichen is going to do. I loved what Steichen was able to do with Garner Minshew back there, and if Richardson is close to what people expect, this will be a good offense. In addition, if you play trends you like, week 1 divisional underdogs are 35-15-2 (70 pct) since 2014, including 13-4-1 (76.5 pct) as home dogs.
Pick: Falcons-Steelers Under 42
What we know: the Steelers offense, which stunk last year, will likely stink again, no matter if it’s Russ trying to Cook or Fields back there. What we don’t know: Falcons have a new head coach in Raheem Morris and a new QB in Kurt Cousins, who is coming off season-ending surgery. The Falcons, in theory, have playmakers in Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson, but we have yet to see it materialize. For all those reasons, I like the under.
Kyle Soppe, PFN Fantasy and Betting Analyst
Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. under 65.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Arizona invested heavily in Marvin Harrison Jr. in April, and they should be rewarded – in time. The pedigree is great, but we could see a slow start to his NFL career.
From a historical point of view, a learning curve could very much be in play. Over the past 20 seasons, the average top-10 pick has produced just 49 receiving yards in his NFL debut. That, of course, is casting a wide net, but I found it interesting that Ja’Marr Chase (2021) was the only player on that list to reach 75 receiving yards.
That’s an interesting trend to take into a game against a defense that doesn’t give up big plays (league-low 17 completions of 25+ yards last season). Speaking of this matchup, I’m not here to argue that the Bills are great, but they were pretty good at slowing alpha WR1s a season ago.
If you segment production by those true top-target earners (I’m talking target share monsters like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and A.J. Brown), they largely underachieved against Buffalo. In 11 games against such players, the star receiver averaged just 48.3 receiving yards per game (under six yards per target). I know we like Harrison to demand looks, but if the efficiency is anywhere close to that range, he’s going to be hard-pressed to reach this seemingly underwhelming line.
Further amplifying the impact of a lack of volume is the point spread. The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite, and as the league gets smarter, big favorites are giving their opponent fewer chances. In 2023, the average time of possession for teams favored by at least six points was at its highest since 2010. Add in the fact that Arizona could also try to shorten this game, not to mention that Buffalo ranked 27th in blitz rate last season (what other receiver is going to see exotic coverage schemes?), and there are more paths to failure than not.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid, over 4.5 catches (-160 at DraftKings), over 5.5 catches (+102 at FanDuel), to lead this game in receiving yards (+340)
If the Bills are going to have the ball plenty, I want exposure to their side. Dalton Kincaid averaged 6.3 catches per game (on a roster that had both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis) during his eight highest route count contests (otherwise: 2.9 catches per game). The Cardinals struggled to prevent passing offenses from going where they wanted to (six times did a featured piece see a target on at least 30% of his routes against Arizona), a title Kincaid certainly opens the season with.
There is true breakout potential for the second-year tight end, and I want to take advantage of the lines now before the prices swell.
Pick: Broncos-Seahawks Over 41.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
On many sites, Same Game Parlays push you toward overs. It’s a logical move by sportsbooks as it increases the odds of you running into poor injury luck and punting off an otherwise good ticket because your hand was forced.
For that reason, I’m very selective with my SGP exposure, and my number one target on Sunday is the Broncos/Seahawks game, and it’s not close. From a structure standpoint, we get an awfully low total for a game featuring two offensive minds I’m comfortable trusting (Sean Payton and Ryan Grubb) and two defenses I’m actively targeting.
Both of these defenses were among the four most victimized by 15-plus-yard runs by opposing running backs, and if you give these coaches stable production on the ground, they are going to put their signal caller in a great spot to make plays.
Don’t trust Bo Nix and/or Geno Smith over 60 minutes? Either do I, but that’s just fine. Both are capable of making big plays (Nix’s athleticism and Smith in Grubb’s vertical system with a talented receiver room) and big mistakes – those mistakes simply flip the field in a hurry and stand to increase the possession count.
Even if you think these are below-average offensive units on the whole, I have an out for you:
Average starting field position this preseason off of kickoffs: 28.7
Average over the past 5 regular seasons: 25.5
How impactful is 3 yards?
Might we be too low on the players on bad teams?#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/orYDUgcAg9
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 3, 2024
The bad offenses stand to gain the most from these kickoff rules, and an increase in starting field position is good for every part of this bet. I’m riding the RBs (you can bet both separately to clear 100 total yards, and if one hits, you lock in a return of almost a full unit with the potential for much more)
Pick: Jameson Williams over 42.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
This game is expected to shoot out, and that generally makes taking “overs” difficult, especially for someone who naturally skews toward unders, but I found one I like.
Last season, the Rams allowed the highest opponent aDOT (9.2 yards, 19.5% ahead of NFL average) and if points are being put on the board left and right, it’s plenty fair to think that Jared Goff will look to take advantage of that on his home fast track.
If we take for granted that deep throws are going to occur, Jameson Williams can hold my money. It was a slow burn, but he cleared a 65% snap share four of his final six games last season (playoffs included), a threshold he had hit once in his career prior.
You don’t need me to tell you that Williams is a boom-bust type of player. I think we can take advantage of that skill set to increase our number of outs. On DraftKings, he has both a receiving yardage and total yardage prop listed, markets that are just two yards apart. I don’t mind eating those two yards at essentially no cost, to gain access to a schemed run or a bubble screen that ends up technically counting as a run.
The two additional yards are negligible for me when discussing his receiving projection (he can still hit this number with a single reception) and we increase our number of paths to success.
Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Pick: James Conner over 12.5 rush attempts (-120 at DraftKings) 1u
I am of the belief that the Cardinals will be better than expected. That is what this bet is predicated on. The Cardinals are 6.5-point underdogs in Buffalo, N.Y. If the Bills smoke the Cardinals, this is going to lose. I think the Cardinals can hang.
Last season, Conner went over 12.5 rush attempts in nine of his 13 games. Of the four in which he failed, the Cardinals lost by 19, 14, 23, and 11. I do not expect rookie Trey Benson to see more than a couple of carries. At least for right now, Conner is the clear lead back. As long as this game doesn’t get out of hand, this should hit easily.
Pick: Joe Mixon anytime touchdown (+120 at DraftKings) 0.5u
The Texans only scored 10 rushing touchdowns all of last season. However, Joe Mixon had always been a quality goal-line back for the Bengals.
In C.J. Stroud’s second season, the Texans project to be one of the best offenses in football. They should be able to move the ball up and down on the Colts’ subpar defense.
With an implied team total of about 25 points, the Texans project to score three touchdowns. If they get inside the five-yard-line, the ball should go into Mixon’s gut. I will take the clear lead back and goal-line option on a top offense to score any day of the week.
Pick: Stefon Diggs under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings) 1u
If you followed me at all last year, you know my feelings on Stefon Diggs. This one shouldn’t come as a surprise.
There are those who believe Diggs will be the Texans’ WR1. There are those who believe he will be their WR2. And there are those who believe he will be the WR3. I think you know where I stand.
From Week 10 onward, Diggs played 10 games, including the playoffs. He didn’t reach 60 receiving yards in eight of them.
This one is not about the matchup — it’s about his role on the team. I do think there’s a chance Diggs gets a nice dose of targets, but I expect them to be close to the line of scrimmage. Sure, he could break a tackle and bust off a big play, which would make this a loss. But if Diggs is a glorified Jarvis Landry, which is what I expect him to be, he could rack up 7-8 receptions and still not get to 60 yards.
The best line available now is 59.5 yards, which is still very beatable.
Pick: Tony Pollard over 9.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings) 1u
This is a really low number for one of the better receiving backs in the league. It appears sportsbooks are projecting Tyjae Spears to be the primary receiving back. I choose to believe what Titans coaches have told us all offseason: both backs are interchangeable and will do everything. Even the depth chart lists them both as RB1.
Pollard surpassed this number in 10 out of 17 games last season. On the Titans, playing behind Derrick Henry, Spears also hit this 10 of 17 games last year.
The Titans are widely expected to be more pass-heavy. Although Will Levis likes to push the ball downfield, there will be instances where he has to check it down. Pollard can get there on just one reception.
Pick: Devin Singletary anytime touchdown (+165 at DraftKings) 0.5u
The fantasy football universe is all-abuzz about rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. It makes sense. Devin Singletary is just a guy. Tracy can easily unseat the starter at some point this season, but it’s not happening in Week 1.
I will take it a step further: I expect Singletary to be a true bellcow, playing all three downs. In the preseason, Singletary was the clear goal-line back. I would be stunned if he wasn’t in that role to start the season.
The Giants do not project to be a great offense, but the Vikings were a bottom-10 defense last season. I don’t expect the Giants to get shut out. If they get near the goal line, there’s a very good chance Singletary gets multiple opportunities.
Bet: Zach Ertz longest reception under 13.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings) 1u
Zach Ertz is just shy of his 34th birthday. His yards per reception has declined each of the past three seasons, bottoming out at 6.9 last year. He averaged a paltry 1.1 yards after the catch per target.
Ertz now joins the Commanders, where he will likely be the fourth- or fifth-best option in the passing game. He’s playing with a rookie mobile quarterback in Jayden Daniels.
Of Ertz’s 25 receptions last season, a total of three went for 14+ yards. He is nothing more than a check-down guy who is no threat after the catch at this stage in his career.
Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush over 15.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Hello, my old friend. We meet again. Well, I shouldn’t say “old.” There’s nothing old about Jahmyr Gibbs. But this is a well we went back to many, many times last season. The books just didn’t seem to grasp that Gibbs is a splash play waiting to happen.
Gibbs carried the ball 182 times last season — 15 of those attempts went for at least 17 yards. That’s 8.2%, which was the second-highest rate in the league. This is a bet on talent against a defense that no longer has the greatest defensive player of all time, Aaron Donald, clogging up the lane.
Bet: Blake Corum under 6.5 rush attempts (-120 at DraftKings)
How much do we believe Sean McVay really wants to reduce Kyren Williams’ workload? I buy it to an extent, but seven carries for a backup running back is a lot.
This game has the highest total of the week at 50.5. I’m expecting both teams to lean more on the pass in what should be a fun, back-and-forth affair. I struggle to see there being room for Blake Corum, in his first career game, to earn seven rush attempts.
Bet: Kalif Raymond over 1.5 receptions (-120 at FanDuel) 1u
This is a bit correlated to the Jameson Williams receptions under, but it can win even if I’m wrong about Williams’ role. I expect Kalif Raymond on the field in three-receiver sets and about half of two-receiver sets.
Raymond’s been around for a while and has never been more than a role player. However, he’s set for his largest role of his career.
In a game that should feature 35+ pass attempts from both teams, Jared Goff can’t throw every pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, or Jahmyr Gibbs. Raymond should see at least 3-4 targets. Last season, he caught at least two passes in 11 out of 17 regular season games, including every game where he played at least 35% of the snaps. I think he reaches that in this one.