Fantasy football is a game of decisions. You spent all offseason preparing for your draft, and you dominated — but it means nothing without sound decision-making every week.
The first step is understanding that every week is its own animal. With that in mind, here are the players I like more and less than you likely do for the week ahead.
After you’re done reading, check out my Week 1 fantasy start/sit for every top skill player in every game on this week’s slate.
Who Should I Start in Week 1?
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Some high-pedigree options require time to find their groove at the professional level and some are named Caleb Williams.
The arm is what is praised and I have zero concerns about it. This is an offense that is going to work to highlight his strengths and with the Titans intercepting a league-low 1.1% of passes last season (league average: 2.3%), I’m comfortable with projecting a nice combination of aggression and volume in Williams’ debut.
Why I have him as my QB8 this week is a bet on versatility. The Titans ranked 28th in pressure rate last season and with a trio of strong receivers, I have no concerns that Williams can produce top-12 numbers through the air. That’s encouraging, but what has me playing him over QBs that have some MVP steam behind them in Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, and Jordan Love is his ability to pick up yards on the ground.
Over the past 20 seasons, 11 rookie quarterbacks with first-round draft capital spent on them ran for over 25 yards in their first start – they averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game (for context, that would have been QB5 if extended for all of 2023).
That’s an impressive number at face value, but it’s even better when you consider that some of the quarterbacks in that sample (Christian Ponder, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, and Teddy Bridgewater) weren’t exactly swimming in the same pool as Williams in terms of projected career arc.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
If you drafted Daniels, you did so with his ceiling games in mind, and this could be one of them. Last season, the Buccaneers blitzed at the third-highest rate and allowed the eighth-most yards per pass attempt – is that not the perfect formula for Daniels’ profile?
The concern with the pride of LSU is his ability to process at the NFL level, but he might not need to in Week 1. If his first read is open (and it will be on occasion given Tampa Bay’s inconsistencies at the second level), he takes it. If it’s not because the Bucs guess right when they are blitzing, then the 6’4” athletic marvel gets out of the pocket and you watch the fantasy points pile up with him in space.
From a game script perspective, things could work out. I have my questions about Tampa Bay’s ability to run the ball (fourth in percentage of yards that came through the air last season), and if they operate similarly in this matchup, that is perfect for Daniels.
Either Baker Mayfield’s passes are hitting the turf and stopping the clock or they are picking up chunks (Washington allowed the third most yards per pass last season) and forcing Daniels to play catchup.
Like you, I have my concerns about the rookie’s support at his disposal, something that didn’t improve with trading Jahan Dotson ahead of the third week of the preseason. That is likely to result in some valleys this season, but that’s more of a concern in October (Browns and Ravens to open the month) than September (Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals).
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
I don’t want to say it’s a flow chart situation when it comes to Miami’s lefty, but I’m not going to say it’s not. For his career, in games with over 25 passes thrown …
- Kickoff temperature 80+ degrees: 22.1 fantasy points per game
- Kickoff temperature <80 degrees: 14.7 fantasy points per game
For reference, QB2 last season averaged 21 PPG while QB21 averaged 14.7 PPG. We have ourselves a warm game – so you blindly plug in Tagovailoa, right?
Always a #FantasyFootball topic
Tagovailoa might get you Tua title game (three straight non-weather issues in Weeks 14-16) but Week 17 at CLE needs the be factored into the #FantasyFootball rankings process pic.twitter.com/twt4GTFvU4
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 15, 2024
I wouldn’t go that far, but when facing a defense that ranked in the bottom quarter of the league last season in pressure rate and opponent pass touchdown percentage, it’s easy to like the polarizing Dolphin as much as ever.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
It appears that Williams is well removed from the “he is on the roster bubble” nonsense from earlier this month and is in line to lead this backfield in a significant way. I’ve been higher than the industry on Williams all offseason, using the logic that he deserves some leniency for his underwhelming 2023 season after the ACL tear. I think we could see a vintage performance to open this year.
Last year, the Seahawks allowed the fourth-most running back carries of 15+ yards (22), and we know Williams can hit the home run. Just as encouraging as that is Nix’s profile. This preseason, he showcased nice athleticism, and while it was called back, he did find Williams for a touchdown this preseason against the Packers.
Even last year, which most considered a lost season, there were only three running backs in the NFL with more 10+ carry, 2+ catch games than Williams. I’m happy to be early to the party for a versatile 24-year-old in an offense that might have a higher ceiling than most assume.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
Despite De’Von Achane’s emergence last season, Mostert played 56.4% of the snaps, a rate that mirrored his rate from 2022. Even with Jaylen Wright now in the mix, Mostert should be on the field for roughly half of the snaps of an elite offense; while carrying the scoring role, that locks him in as an RB2 (he scored 21 times last season and had multiple red-zone touches in 13 of 15 games).
As Jonathan Taylor worked back from injury last season, the Colts gave both of their featured RBs 12+ touches, and both returned top-24 value at the position (Zack Moss was RB7 and Taylor RB21). That’s essentially how I see this playing out – anyone with a piece of this backfield should feel just fine about their prospects to open the season.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
I’m in — all the way in. This WR rookie class got plenty of deserved attention this summer, and I think some of the hype helped us get a bargain on Thomas. With the bar set so high for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Thomas’ star didn’t shine as bright in terms of the media machine – that could change once the cleats hit the ground and the games count
Brian Thomas Jr.
(thread) pic.twitter.com/hJOabDQo0V
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 29, 2024
If you need the full Thomas love letter, check out either our Bold Takes or My Guys podcasts — I couldn’t choose, so he’s heavily featured in both. As for this specific week, the ‘Fins were the fifth worst red-zone defense last season, and that has me thinking Thomas could score in his NFL debut, something his LSU brethren in Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. both did.
I think you can Flex him now, I’m not going to wait on a profile that lines up this well.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
I’m of the belief that Shaheed is good at football, but at a loaded position, he’s more of a DFS play than someone to consider for annual lineups until he becomes a 6-8 target per game asset.
For those daily contests, Shaheed is a live wire this week. He and Olave both had 40+ yard grabs against these Panthers in Week 2 last season in large part because Carr can just sit back in the pocket and let his athletes roam.
In 2023, Carolina was the second-worst defense in terms of creating pressure when not blitzing.
So just blitz, right?
Wrong. The Panthers were dead last in pressure percentage when bringing the extra man.
I don’t expect Shaheed to garner much ownership with a full schedule this week, and we know the upside is there for a single catch to pay off his price tag.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m cautiously optimistic about Freiermuth. With just four touchdown catches over the past two seasons, the former Nittany Lion hasn’t cashed in on the promise he showed as a rookie when he caught seven scores. But with Diontae Johnson now a Panther, there are plenty of targets available for a career year to occur.
When running 30+ routes, Freiermuth has averaged 11 PPR points per game. Freiermuth reached double figures in 10 of those 12 games with 30+ routes run. In games with fewer than 30 routes run, he averaged 7.7 PPR points per game.
I can’t say with certainty that Freiermuth will be unleashed in that manner this season, but it’s within the range of outcomes, and that is why he’s in my top 15.
There is only so much upward mobility at tight end due to the increase in depth, though it wouldn’t surprise me if Freiermuth proves to be a very viable option for those who punted on the position.
Who Should I Sit in Week 1?
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
My preseason pick for MVP (+2500) led this Lions offense to the third-best red-zone grade in the league last season (64.1% touchdown rate), and I maintain that he will have a strong season … just not a strong Week 1.
The Rams held opponents to the ninth-lowest red-zone completion percentage last season, putting them in a position to negate a major strength from this Detroit offense. That’s part of the puzzle, but the bigger one is the type of QB who thrived against Los Angeles last season.
Those were the QBs responsible for the highest fantasy point totals against the Rams last season. Carr is the closest to the Goff play type, but he only got there because his Saints were down 23 with 6.5 minutes left (57.8% of his fantasy points that day came on the final two drives). With the Lions favored to win this game, I’m not betting on that profile, which lands Goff outside of my top 12 at the position this week.
Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants
I’m skeptical that Singletary will hold on to the bell-cow role in this offense through October, and I’m not sure his season gets off to a great start.
During his entire career up to this point, Singletary has been involved in offenses that have proven to be dangerous. He spent four seasons with the Bills and Josh Allen before taking his talents to Houston last year in an offense that was as potent as anyone once the Texans figured out what C.J. Stroud was capable of.
It’s safe to say that this situation in New York is not the same as either of those. Running lanes are going to be more difficult to come by, and for a player who hasn’t had a 35-yard carry in over nearly 1,000 days, counting on the home run play isn’t exactly wise.
The Vikings’ defense had their share of issues in 2023, but they allowed a league-low six running back carries of 15+ yards. I think you can get away with Flexing Singletary in the rare Giants game that should come down to the wire, and thus stabilize his touch count. But asking for much more than that is dangerous with Tyrone Tracy Jr. set to nip at his heels for touches.
Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
The Gus Bus stands to come to a screeching halt now that he is no longer isolated by the Ravens’ offensive scheme, and that reality could be obvious to open the season.
No running back last season scored 20 PPR points against the Raiders without seeing at least five targets, and only one (the great Jonathan Taylor) reached 14 points with at least looks in the passing game.
If pressed, I’d bet the under on 3.5 targets for Edwards.
No, not for this game – for the month of September.
There will be a time and place to try to steal points from a back like this that will rely on cashing in a carry inside the 5-yard line, but taking a risk like that in Week 1 for an offense that underwent an overhaul this offseason is trying too hard.
The Chargers do not have an alpha running back, and that is why Edwards deserves to be rostered. It’s easy to see a world in which he earns plus-volume and handles all of the duties in close.
But with a lack of versatility, Edwards’ PPR upside is significantly capped in this situation. And with every team in action, I’d be shocked if you didn’t have two running backs and 4-5 receivers that I’d rather plug in.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans
Among the most interesting storylines of the first week (for that matter, the first month) of the season is the usage of Diggs. Will he be used as he was for the majority of his time in Buffalo? Will Houston elect to tier their receiver routes – Dell runs deep, Collins a mix of everything, and Diggs more shallow? Was the late-season decline in 2023 a blip on the radar or a red flag?
We will get those answers with time, and until then, he’s going to occupy my “you can Flex him, but he’s not a must-play” tier of receiver. Sorry for the long name and some fence-sitting, but I’m a straight shooter, and the honest truth is that we aren’t sure what his role is going to look like just yet.
Of course, I have my guesses. Last season, the Bills were beating their head against a wall with their WR1. Instead of adapting to what they saw on the field, they, more-or-less, kept his role the same and prayed the production would resurface. In the second half of the season, he didn’t stop running deeper routes (his aDOT dropped just 5.1%, well within the range of expected variance over a small sample) despite a lack of success on such plays.
- Weeks 1-10: 58.6% catch rate on deep passes
- Weeks 11-18: 20% catch rate on deep passes
We know Stroud wants to punish defenses down the field, and we know he had the weapons to do so before Diggs was acquired. If they elect to leverage his experience and route running, he could have a very successful season that mirrors something like peak Diontae Johnson. If not, we could be looking at a frustrating player who struggles to string productive weeks together on a weekly basis.
I have confidence that Houston will put the pieces together with time, but expecting another season with over 1,100 yards and at least eight touchdowns, something he did every season in Buffalo, is dangerous. Both he and Dell are going to live in that fringe top-30 range for me at the position until we have a better feel as to the quantity (and quality) of targets that both are seeing.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
The 32-year-old has had a weird offseason. For the first time in his career, he has switched teams, and, likely, for the first time in his life, his athletic ability is being questioned. I’m not overweighing the #FatKeenan narrative, but there is no denying that Rome Odunze has looked quick this summer or that Allen has missed 11 games over the past two seasons.
Allen thrived last season thanks to catching a pass on a career-high 20.6% of his routes. He benefited from the extreme volume, which I think has virtually no chance of repeating this season. I’m taking the patient approach with the non-Moore receivers in Chicago. This offense should be strong enough to support two pass catchers; we just need proof of who that second man is going to be.
By the time bye weeks roll around, I suspect we will have a pretty clear picture of where the targets are going, which will land two Bear WRs inside my top 30 instead of two outside my top 35.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
I liked what I saw from Nix this preseason, and if Tim Patrick’s release implies that this team is happy with what they have at receiver, you have to think Sean Payton is a big fan of what Sutton can do as the clear WR1.
He assumed the alpha role last season — something we thought was Jerry Jeudy’s — and ran with it. For the year, he finished 20.9% over expectation in terms of fantasy production, easily the best rate of his career; but even in a breakout season, consistency remains a concern (under 20.5% target rate in all three seasons since tearing his MCL).
The Seahawks allowed a touchdown on 24.6% of opponent drives last season (fourth most) and that puts Sutton in the Flex mix for leagues that start three receivers. For now, he’s swimming in the pool of my ranks that includes other talented receivers with young QBs (Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, etc.).
I could see him emerging from that pack, but I’ll need to see a consistent connection with Nix before even considering getting him inside my top 30.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Cooks was able to salvage 2023 thanks to an unsustainable touchdown rate, tallying six top-20 finishes at the position despite averaging a career-low 1.25 yards per route run. That, friends, is what we like to label as an aberration.
I do this for a living, and mock/real drafts create easily digestible content. That’s to say that I’ve been drafting for 3+ months at this point – there are few players of which I have literally zero shares: Cooks is on that list. I don’t need an excuse to pass on him (could Jalen Tolbert be a 2024 sleeper with time?), but the Browns allowing the fewest yards per drive last season (20.8) since the 2008 Steelers is certainly noteworthy.
He’s outside of my top 50 at the position, and that’s not changing until I’m proven wrong multiple times, even as a part of this high-octane offense.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
If you have two, you have none. Hopkins ranked fourth in deep targets a season ago, while Ridley checked in at fifth. These two players aren’t identical, but there certainly is some skill duplication in Tennessee’s developing pass game and that has resulted in me trusting neither to open the season (both outside of my top-30 receivers).
With time, the hope is that either Levis looks like a franchise QB and can stabilize both of these playmakers or he latches onto his favorite of these two and elevates him to a top-25 producer.
I’d slightly favor Ridley in that race, though I’m not arrogant enough to bet on my initial feel given the depth at the receiver position. I’d rather play a stable skill set like Chris Godwin/Christian Kirk or swing bigger in a Jayden Reed/Tank Dell kind of way than gamble on the Titans’ unclear situation.
Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
I’m fine rostering Bowers and hoping that the raw talent wins out. That said, history tells us that you’re essentially betting on a touchdown if you start the Georgia star in his NFL debut, a shaky bet at best for a team with one of the lower implied totals on the Week 1 slate.
Since 2002, only one time has a tight end scored double-digit PPR fantasy points in his first career game when not finding the end zone. If you’re curious, Coby Fleener was that player, and he had the benefit of playing in an offense led by college teammate Andrew Luck and a game script that required three times as many pass attempts as rushes (the Colts lost 41-21 in Chicago).
Bowers’ preseason usage was encouraging, and there is a path to him mattering this season. But he’s not ranked as a fantasy starter for me this week and likely won’t be for this first month – not until we get a grasp on his role and how this offense is going to function.