The Minnesota Vikings are an intriguing team from a fantasy football perspective in 2024. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson are pass catchers who have been fantasy assets already in their careers and, in some cases, to a tremendous level. However, with Sam Darnold and Nick Mullens topping the depth chart at quarterback, there are major question marks around this team, especially at wide receiver.
Let’s examine Jefferson’s and Addison’s fantasy outlook heading into 2024 and consider whether they are worth their current draft value.
Justin Jefferson’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 308.7 (205.0 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 103.8
- Receiving Yards: 1,549.5
- Receiving TDs: 7.8
In 60 career games, Jefferson has racked up 5,899 receiving yards. Even with injuries all over Minnesota’s offense late last season, he was there when fantasy managers needed him most (23 catches for 392 yards and a pair of touchdowns over his final three games).
Jefferson has been a staple on successful fantasy teams ever since he stepped foot onto a professional field. But with Darnold starting for the Vikings, Jefferson’s name is not in consideration for the first overall pick this season.
In early drafts, Jefferson is being selected as the fourth receiver off the board and fifth overall. I have him one spot lower in my positional ranks, so I’m fine with the placement in that regard, but I personally would opt to exhaust the top tier of running backs before calling Jefferson’s name.
Why?
It really has nothing to do with Jefferson and everything to do with the position. By locking in a top-shelf RB in the middle of Round 1, you’ll likely have access to a top-10 receiver on the way back — a decline in production from Jefferson that is less significant than if you did the inverse and were looking at a running back in the middle of the second round.
At the end of the day, I don’t think you’re losing your 2024 fantasy league because you drafted Jefferson. Hockenson’s ACL recovery is reportedly going well, but he’ll still start the year on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, to no one’s surprise.
And as much as we like Addison’s upside, he doesn’t project as the type of receiver who will hinder Jefferson’s production in a major way. If anything, I think his stock is the most hurt by the quarterback change.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Jordan Addison’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 165.1 (112.9 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 52.2
- Receiving Yards: 679.6
- Receiving TDs: 7.5
If not for Puka Nacua’s historic rookie season, Addison would’ve been the highest-scoring first-year receiver in 2023. His 70 receptions for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns helped him produce a WR23 overall finish last year.
This is pretty impressive, considering the team lost starting quarterback Kirk Cousins in Week 8, leaving Minnesota to start Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall, and Mullens under center over the back half of the regular season.
Addison’s 10 receiving scores on just 108 targets is a pretty absurd rate considering just six wide receivers have scored double-digit TDs with fewer than 110 targets in a season since 2019. The only other receiver who achieved this feat last year was Courtland Sutton.
Despite Addison’s outstanding rookie season, his current ADP of No. 107 overall, going off the board as the WR46, certainly suggests fantasy managers are a bit weary of his situation heading into his second NFL season. For some additional context, he’s coming off the board just behind Hollywood Brown and right before Sutton in the 10th round of fantasy drafts.
Addison’s potential TD regression and less-than-favorable usage split when Jefferson was in the lineup — and the completely unknown fantasy impacts of the recovering Hockenson and Darnold at QB in this offense — make him a volatile fantasy option in 2024.
– Tate