Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick, Prediction: Who wins in Week 12?

Vikings vs. 49ers features two teams fighting to stay in playoff contention. What is our pick and prediction for this critical NFC matchup?

The Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers will face off in a matchup with NFC playoff implications. Both teams enter this game with a 5-5 record as they fight for a Wild Card spot. Let’s take a look at the NFL odds along with a pick and prediction for the Vikings vs. 49ers game in Week 12.

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers pick, prediction | Week 12

  • Spread: 49ers -3 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Vikings +145, 49ers -165
  • Over/Under: 48.5

Will the 49ers’ home woes continue?

The 49ers have struggled in San Francisco this season, posting a 1-4 record at home. They don’t necessarily have any bad losses at Levi’s Stadium, though. The biggest concerns are double-digit losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals, although they’re coming off of a 21-point win against the Los Angeles Rams in their last home game.

San Francisco’s averaging .402 points per play this season. That number dips to .371 at home, though. One of the key factors in this game is that the 49ers boast a +7.6 average scoring margin on the road. However, that drops drastically to -2.8 at home.

San Francisco’s defense is more of the same this season. They rank sixth-worst in the NFL in points allowed per play (.437) at home. The 49ers are allowing slightly more than a touchdown more per game in San Francisco as well.

It’s important to note that the 49ers have played significantly better teams at home versus on the road, though.

Vikings vs. 49ers betting trends

The Vikings have performed better against the spread (ATS) than the 49ers this season. They’ve covered in 60% of their games this season, while the 49ers have covered in only 40% of their contests.

Minnesota’s been nearly perfect on the road, posting a 4-1 ATS record. San Francisco’s struggling significantly more, recording a 1-4 home ATS record.

The Vikings are also a perfect 5-0 as underdogs in 2021, while the 49ers have yet to cover the spread as home favorites.

These teams have been neutral in terms of the game total on the season, finding the over and under in 50% of their games thus far. With that being said, Minnesota has hit the over in 80% of its road games, while San Francisco has found the over slightly more often at home.

Vikings vs. 49ers prediction

The Vikings and 49ers are coming off of impressive wins in recent weeks, beating the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams, respectively.

I don’t believe Minnesota sits in a tier with some of the teams San Francisco has lost to at home this season. The 49ers flashed in their last home game, and they could once again in a plus-matchup this weekend.

The Vikings rank last in the NFL in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.8). The 49ers should be able to control the ball, limiting Minnesota’s opportunities for big plays.

I believe the spread is set correctly in this game, as I’m backing San Francisco at home in something of a must-win game.

Vikings vs. 49ers Prediction: 49ers 24, Vikings 21