After a career year, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is expected to receive interest from a number of QB-needy teams. Will he return to Minnesota or take his talents elsewhere, and how much money will get paid annually? Let’s examine what kind of contract the 27-year-old could sign this offseason.
How Much Will Free Agent Sam Darnold Get Paid?
- Projected Contract Value: $35-40 million per year
- Projected Contract Length: 3-4 years
Predicting Darnold’s potential contract in free agency is tough because the landing spots are somewhat limited.
There will always be teams willing to take a chance on a quarterback, so he should get a solid contract in terms of signing for three of four years. However, the overall value and the guarantees are much harder to project.
Based on performance, Spotrac has Darnold projected for a $40 million-a-year contract, and our QB+ metrics indicate he is worth that. In 2024, Darnold finished as the QB12 in the regular season. A deal with an average annual value (AAV) of $40 million would only put Darnold tied for 16th with Aaron Rodgers.
The problem for Darnold is that we are talking about a one-year sample size of success against multiple years of struggles. That is somewhat similar to the situation we saw with Baker Mayfield, who signed a deal worth $33.3 million per year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a successful 2023 season.
Mayfield’s contract with the Buccaneers could set the framework for what we might see for Darnold. Mayfield’s deal was a three-year contract worth $100 million in total, with $40 million guaranteed at signing. Essentially, Mayfield’s contract was a one-year deal worth $40 million in cash, with the Buccaneers having the option to eat $23 million in dead money to move on after that season.
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With the salary cap jump entering 2025, Darnold’s numbers should see around a 10-20% jump in value. That would put the overall value at around $35-37.5 million a year, with $45 million guaranteed. Any team signing Darnold will likely put similar protections in after the first year in case Darnold regresses when away from Kevin O’Connell and Minnesota’s system.
Darnold is the No. 10-ranked player in PFSN’s Top 100 Free Agent Rankings.
Revisiting Darnold’s 2024 Season
In 2024, Darnold’s overall numbers were intriguing. His traditional stats were impressive, as he threw for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on a 66.2% completion percentage. He also rushed for 212 yards and a touchdown.
Looking at his advanced metrics, he finished eighth in terms of nYPA (7.3) despite only getting 4.9 YAC/Cp (30th). He was 11th from a clean pocket (0.29 EPA/DB) and 19th when pressured (-0.32 EPA/DB). Darnold finished inside the top 10 in passing yards per game (254.1).
The one thing that does raise some alarm bells is that Darnold has had issues inside the opposing half on a handful of occasions. He finished the season ranked 30th with a -0.08 EPA/DB in those situations. However, he was generally fine in other clutch situations and converted 39.3% of third-down opportunities (15th).
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Darnold was really solid for much of the year, but the last two weeks of the season were rough for Darnold. Week 18 was his worst performance of the season, and the Wild Card game was his third-worst. They were his second and third performances that were graded as a D and the fourth and fifth graded below a C-.
Against the Los Angeles Rams, Darnold was sacked nine times as his offensive line seemingly fell apart in front of his eyes.
A -0.85 EPA/DB when under pressure compounded those issues, and Darnold was also below par from a clean pocket, with a -0.02 EPA/DB. He finished the game with 4.1 nYPA and had a -0.90 EPA/DB when inside the opposing half.
Two bad performances under the bright lights of what was essentially two playoff games are going to have a major impact on how Darnold is viewed once free agency gets underway.