We have reached Super Bowl 56, our final opportunity to make picks and predictions for the 2021-22 NFL season. The Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals will battle in SoFi Stadium after both came out on top of their respective conferences. Which team do the current NFL odds have as the favorite, what is the current total, and can we see any value in the early lines?
Super Bowl 56 Picks and Predictions | NFL odds and lines
Even in the few short hours since the Rams clinched the second spot in Super Bowl 56, the lines have already started to move. The Rams opened in most places as either 3.5 or 4-point favorites. That has now shifted to a mostly 4-point spread, with DraftKings making them 4.5-point favorites.
The moneyline has also moved, but only marginally. The total is hovering around 50, but it’s dropped to 49.5 at most sportsbooks as of Monday (Jan. 31) morning. Let’s take an early look at both teams and see if there is any value in the current lines.
The Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive line is a major question mark
The last two weeks have seen the Bengals allow 13 sacks, including 9 against the Tennessee Titans. Had it not been for the superb play of Joe Burrow — both inside and outside of the pocket — that number could have been as high as 20. That is a major concern for the Bengals going against the talents of Von Miller and Aaron Donald.
Burrow has proven he can lead his team to victory despite the pressure, but the Bengals are going to need a way to counter the threat of the Rams’ pass rush. They did that well at times against the Chiefs, utilizing quick screens and keeping their offense balanced with the run game. They will need every bit of that creativity in Super Bowl 56.
The Bengals’ defense could be key in beating the odds in Super Bowl 56
Early on against the Chiefs, it looked as though things might get out of hand for the Bengals. However, the Bengals’ defense was incredible in the second half. They held Patrick Mahomes to just 3 points and a passer rating of zero.
The Bengals’ defense has been a strong second-half unit this season. In the first half of games, they allow an average of 12.4 points per game — the eighth-worst in the league. However, in the second half, they are the third-best at 8.9 points per game. Those adjustments at halftime have been crucial to them advancing to the Super Bowl.
The Los Angeles Rams need to put together a complete game
The Rams impressed on Wild Card Weekend, but the last two weeks have been less convincing. They dominated the first half against the Buccaneers but let a 27-3 lead slip. Subsequently, against the 49ers, they struggled to break down a well-disciplined team. Ultimately, they needed a 13-point unanswered run in the fourth quarter to come out on top.
Facing a Bengals team that has proven capable of the second-half comeback this year, the Rams need to work on that consistency. If they melt under the pressure of a comeback the way they did against the Buccaneers (and the way the Chiefs did against the Bengals), the belief will build for Cincinnati.
The run game is crucial for Los Angeles
It has been an ugly couple of weeks on the ground for the Rams. Against the 49ers, they managed just 70 yards on 29 rush attempts. That follows a 73-yard performance on 30 carries against the Buccaneers. When the Chiefs had the Bengals at their mercy, the balance between the run and pass game was vital.
The Rams have committed to their run game in the last two weeks — without much success. The Bengals have a talented secondary, and if the Rams allow them to play their game plan, it could be tough to move the ball. However, if LA can run the ball well, the Bengals may have to commit an eighth man to the box, limiting their options against Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr.
NFL Picks and Predictions | Super Bowl 56
With the line at 4 or 4.5, it is hard not to take the underdogs. This game lines up nicely to be a close game, and the recent history of the NFL playoffs has been one-score games decided by field goals. Therefore, the initial lean would be towards taking the Bengals getting 4.5 at DraftKings.
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Early betting trends have shown the Bengals getting the slight nod in terms of overall bets. Nonetheless, the early big money has been on the Rams, hence the line move.
What’s the early lean on the total?
The early total does not offer a huge amount of value. Predicting this game blind, my prediction would have been something in the region of 27-23 or 27-24. That ever so slightly tips to the over, but there is a wide range of possible outcomes here.
Both sides play good defense, which could promote a 20-17 game, much like the game the Rams just played. Additionally, this has the makings of a potential shootout. Both offenses can score points quickly: 30-27 very much feels in play. Given the Bengals’ offensive line, a lower-scoring game likely suits them. Thus, a lean to the under feels about right. But the best option is to see if this line continues to move and make the call closer to game day. Right now, it feels spot-on.
A play to watch during the game will be to back the Bengals in the second half. We talked about how good their defense has been in the second half of games. We also saw how the Rams are susceptible to panic against the Buccaneers. If the Rams are leading at the half, taking the Bengals to win the second half would be an intriguing option.
Rams vs. Bengals Prediction: Rams 27, Bengals 24
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