UFL Playoff Preview and Betting Advice: Can Anyone Stop a Stallions Four-Peat?

After multiple starts and stops, spring football seems to finally be finding its place. We’ve now had four straight years with a spring league, and the UFL’s second season is heading into its final stretch.

We’ve got two games coming up on Sunday, June 8, followed by the UFL Championship Game the following Saturday. Here’s a breakdown of the playoff matchups, who we think will win, and what bettors should consider heading into the weekend.

2025 UFL Playoff Preview

The biggest advantage in betting the UFL is that it’s still unpredictable. Since it’s a newer league, the oddsmakers are still learning just like we are. That makes betting lines less accurate than they are in the NFL.

Of course, this can be a double-edged sword. While the lines may be soft, it’s hard to know how these teams will perform week to week.

After 10 weeks of regular-season games, we have a much better picture of what these teams are. The gap between the top teams and the rest was wide. In fact, the playoff spots were already locked in after Week 8. And for the first time since they began play, the Birmingham Stallions are not the favorites to win the UFL title.

UFL Championship Odds

• St. Louis Battlehawks +200
• Birmingham Stallions +235
• Michigan Panthers +255
• D.C. Defenders +450

Before the season kicked off, I took a future on the Stallions to win it all again at +225. Now, you can get slightly better odds.

The season wasn’t smooth for Birmingham. The Stallions went through six different quarterbacks in just 10 weeks. But that long list of injuries led them back to J’Mar Smith. I saw this as a positive and made my move.

UFL Week 8

J’Mar Smith starting for Birmingham. I was gonna pass this week because nothing jumped out, but Smith is a massive upgrade on Case Cookus. Was with the Stallions in their inaugural season when they won the championship. Only play of the week.
Stallions +1.5 -110

— Katz (@jasonkatz13) May 16, 2025

Smith helped Birmingham get hot at the right time. If you’re looking to fade St. Louis, the top team all year, the Stallions might be your best shot. I’m sticking with my preseason pick.

UFL Semifinal Preview

Michigan Panthers at Birmingham Stallions (-1.5)

These teams have met twice this season and seven times overall. Birmingham has won every matchup. That doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win again, but in their Week 9 meeting, Smith started and the Stallions took the win.

The Panthers were expected to be led by their defense, but they’ve struggled against top offenses. They gave up 19.8 points per game on the season. Against other playoff teams, that number jumped to 24. Even when you include the Arlington Renegades, who had a strong offense, the average stays the same.

Birmingham’s defense was much stronger, allowing just 16.7 points per game, second only to St. Louis in total points allowed. They did allow 29 to the Battlehawks, but held D.C. to 18, Michigan to 12 and 22 in two meetings, and gave up only nine to Arlington.

Momentum also matters. The Stallions have won four of their last five games, with the lone loss being a tight 29-28 game to St. Louis. The Panthers, on the other hand, have lost two in a row and went just 1-3 against playoff teams.

Yes, Week 10 didn’t mean anything for Michigan, so they rested quarterback Bryce Perkins. However, they still lost to Birmingham the week before, and the Stallions ended the regular season by dropping 46 points on the Memphis Showboats.

Until Michigan proves they can beat Birmingham, I’m betting they won’t.

Pick: Stallions -1.5, -110

D.C. Defenders at St. Louis Battlehawks (-3.5)

On paper, these teams don’t match up evenly. Offensively, they’re close, with just one point separating them in scoring. Yet, D.C.’s defense has been a problem.

The Defenders allowed 22.4 points per game, which was the worst of the four playoff teams. That’s especially bad when you realize the San Antonio Brahmas had the league’s weakest offense with just 136 total points — yet 48 of those came against D.C.

Strangely, though, the Defenders have given the Battlehawks trouble. In Week 3, they held St. Louis to 15 points, and in Week 10, they lost but still kept the Battlehawks to just 13.

It’s important to understand those games in context. The first was early in the season, when most offenses hadn’t hit their stride. Spring teams usually take a few weeks to gel.

The Week 10 game meant nothing for either side. They were already locked into playoff spots and were set to face each other again. Neither team had any reason to reveal plays or push hard. Plus, it was played in a monsoon. The field was so soaked that punts were literally sticking to the turf.

we’ll be back as soon as we can ⛈️ pic.twitter.com/wBDB5OqZIo

— St. Louis Battlehawks (@XFLBattlehawks) May 31, 2025

There’s not much to take away from that.

Last year, the Battlehawks were in a similar spot. They beat the Brahmas in Week 10, earned home field, and then lost the playoff rematch. That memory will be fresh for coach Anthony Becht and star receiver Hakeem Butler. Expect them to come out focused.

The real question is whether D.C. can put up enough points. They scored 27 against St. Louis in Week 3 and had some strong showings this year, like 33 points vs. Arlington and 32 vs. San Antonio. They’ve also had rough weeks, though, with just 18 and 14 points in games against playoff defenses.

Still, D.C. should be able to score here. The Defenders’ last two games didn’t matter, so we didn’t see their full effort. Now, they know their offense has to carry the load. This one has the makings of a shootout.

Pick: Over 46.5 -110