Tyreek Hill’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

Tyreek Hill is coming off a career year, and his fantasy outlook positions him as a league leader again, but should you draft him at his ADP?

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill averaged 22 PPR fantasy points per game last season. He finished as a WR2+ in 75% of his contests, but will the positive trend continue for Hill? What is Hill’s fantasy football outlook and his ADP for 2021 in the Chiefs’ explosive offense?

Tyreek Hill’s fantasy outlook for 2021

Last year, Hill finished with 87 receptions, 1,276 receiving yards, and 15 receiving touchdowns. He also scored twice rushing the football. Hill has the ability to threaten defenses underneath, in the slot, and vertically with his elite speed.

Hill led the Chiefs’ receivers in targets (71), receptions (46), receiving yards (591), and touchdowns (7) when lined up in the slot. He had a masterful performance in Week 12 when he caught 13 of 15 targets for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Hill continues to prosper as a downfield weapon. Since 2017, he has had the fourth-most receiving air yards (6,145) among wide receivers. The only ones ahead of him are Julio Jones (7,154), Mike Evans (7,125), and DeAndre Hopkins (7,047). Davante Adams ranks fifth with 5,641.

Hill has been the most efficient receiver when analyzing fantasy points over expectation since 2017. As the No. 1 receiver in one of the NFL’s most productive offenses, his dominance should continue in 2021.

The Chiefs’ offense is one of the best in the NFL

The Chiefs’ offense was constrained by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense in Super Bowl LV. However, that shouldn’t discount Kansas City’s productivity with quarterback Patrick Mahomes throwing footballs to Hill.

In 2020, the Chiefs ranked first in total yards (415) and sixth in points (28.5) per game. This trend should continue in 2021 under Kansas City head coach Andy Reid.

Revamped offensive line

The biggest offseason story for the Chiefs was their offensive line. This unit dealt with multiple injuries last season, and the offensive line’s poor performance played a significant role in the franchise failing to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

As a result, Mahomes was under duress during the entire Super Bowl. So, GM Brett Veach vowed to fix the offensive line this offseason and delivered. The Chiefs started by releasing long-time tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz. Then, Kansas City traded for Baltimore Ravens OT Orlando Brown.

Additionally, they signed left guard Joe Thuney and center Austin Blythe in free agency. Furthermore, Kansas City drafted Creed Humphrey in Round 2 and guard Trey Smith in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft.

These new additions, paired with the linemen already on the roster, offer the Chiefs depth to weather the storm that is the NFL season. Considering the type of routes Hill runs in the team’s offense, it is important for Mahomes to have adequate pass protection.

Fantasy projection

Since 2017, Hill has averaged 8 targets, 106 receiving air yards, and 19 PPR fantasy points per game. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have yet to find a consistent No. 3 receiving option behind Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. Therefore, Hill is in a great position to recreate or exceed these per game averages in 2021.

Hill projects for around 150 targets, 98 receptions, 1,400 receiving yards, and 10 receiving touchdowns in 2021. Additionally, he could see 12 rushing attempts, 85 rushing yards, and 1 rushing touchdown.

Tyreek Hill’s ADP

Hill is being drafted in the latter part of the first round as the WR2 overall, according to redraft ADP data from Flkeaflicker (10.5). This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Hill has an ADP of 10.38 but is being taken as the WR1. His ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is slightly higher at 8.6.

Should you draft Hill in 2021?

Hill will continue to be provided a sizable share of targets and receiving air yards from Mahomes. He is a legitimate contender to finish as the fantasy WR1 in PPR formats. Therefore, if you miss out on one of the bell-cow running backs, don’t hesitate to draft Hill.

Eric is a Senior Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow Eric on Twitter @EricNMoody.

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